by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2012 08:03:00 AM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 11, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Only one change to report this week to the Unofficial Problem Bank List.

A reader pointed out an action termination against First Missouri National Bank back in August 2011 that was not captured. First Missouri National Bank underwent a name change to First Missouri Bank and charter flip to state member in December 2011. While the name change and charter flip were properly identified, the action termination prior to the charter conversion was not as the OCC did not include the termination within a press release nor can it be found via the OCC's enforcement action search tool. Perhaps the reader has direct access into the OCC's database or a strong interest in this bank to discover such a needle in the haystack. We can only hope they find any other remaining needles.

With the removal, the Unofficial Problem Bank list stands at 924 institutions with assets of $361.1 billion. A year ago, the list held 983 institutions with assets of $425.4 billion. We thought there was an outside chance for the OCC to release its actions through mid-April, but they will keep us waiting until next week. Also, we will be on watch for the FDIC to release the Official Problem Bank List as of March 31, 2012.

Until then, do something kind this weekend for all of the mothers in your life.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending May 11th
• Schedule for Week of May 13th

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2012 06:31:00 PM

From the LA Times: California deficit has soared to $16 billion, Gov. Jerry Brown says

Gov. Jerry Brown announced on Saturday that the state's deficit has ballooned to $16 billion, a huge increase over his $9.2-billion estimate in January.

The bigger deficit is a significant setback for California, which has struggled to turn the page on a devastating budget crisis. Brown, who announced the deficit on YouTube, is expected to outline his full budget proposal on Monday in Sacramento.

"This means we will have to go much further, and make cuts far greater, than I asked for at the beginning of the year," Brown said in the video.

In addition to more budget cuts, Governor Brown is asking for a temporary 3% income tax hike for the highest income bracket, and an increase in the state sales tax (but still below a year ago).

In the aggregate, it appears state and local cuts might end mid-year, but some states - like California - will see further budget cuts.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending May 11th
• Schedule for Week of May 13th

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2012 01:00:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending May 11th

This will be a busy week. There are two key housing reports to be released this week: May homebuilder confidence on Tuesday, and April housing starts on Wednesday.

Another key report is April retail sales. For manufacturing, the May NY Fed (Empire state) and Philly Fed surveys, and the April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report will be released this week.

Also, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 1st Quarter National Delinquency Survey, and the AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April will be released on Wednesday.

Europe will remain in the spotlight with a Eurogroup meeting on Monday, and euro area Q1 GDP being released in Tuesday.

----- Monday, May 14th -----
No economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, May 15th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales for April.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales were up 0.8% in March and 1.0% in February. There will probably be some payback in April for the strong retail reports over the previous two months.

The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.1% in April, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.2%.

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for April. The consensus is for no change in headline CPI (with the decline in energy prices). The consensus is for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

8:30 AM ET: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 6.6 in April (above zero is expansion).

9:30 AM: Speech by Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke, "Prescriptions for Housing Recovery", At the National Association of Realtors Midyear Legislative Meetings and Trade Expo, Washington, D.C.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for March (Business inventories). The consensus is for 0.4% increase in inventories.

10:00 AM: The May NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 26, up slightly from 25 in April. Although this index has been increasing lately, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Wednesday, May 16th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for April.

Total housing starts were at 654 thousand (SAAR) in March and single-family starts at 462 thousand in March. This was a decline from the February rate, but most of the decline was related to the volatile multi-family sector. Based on permits, starts probably rebounded in April.

The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 690,000 (SAAR) in April from 654,000 in March.

9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April.

This shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production in April, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.0% (from 78.6%).

10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 1st Quarter 2012 National Delinquency Survey (NDS).

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due through Q4 2011. Based on other data, the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate probably declined slightly in Q1.

The key problem remains the large number of seriously delinquent loans (90+ days and in the foreclosure process), especially in judicial foreclosure states like Florida, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois. With the mortgage servicer settlement signed off on April 5th, the delinquency rate will probably start falling faster by mid-2012 through a combination of more modifications and more foreclosures.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of April 24-25, 2012.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, May 17th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to be essentially unchanged at 365 thousand compared to 367 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 8.5 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for April. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in this index.

----- Friday, May 18th -----
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2012

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2012 08:01:00 AM

The key stories for the week were the elections in France and Greece, and JPMorgan’s $2 billion trading loss on a synthetic credit position. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the losses were due to “egregious mistakes”, “sloppiness" and that the "portfolio still has risk”. This doesn’t appear to be a systemic risk, just poor risk management at JPMorgan.

The Greek political situation is unsettled, and the Europeans have said they support Greece through the next election on June 17th. After that … who knows? There is a strong possibility that Greece will leave the euro not long after the next election.

This was a light week for US economic data. The trade deficit was a little higher than expected, but most of the data improved slightly. The 4-week average of initial weekly unemployment claims declined, small business confidence improved, and consumer sentiment improved, and there were more job openings in March.

In an under reported story, both Fannie and Freddie reported improved performance due to “stabilization of house prices” in certain areas. The sharp decline in "for sale" inventory appears to be supporting house prices, and inventory and house prices continue to be key stories for 2012.

Here is a summary in graphs:

• Trade Deficit increased in March to $51.8 Billion

The trade deficit was above the consensus forecast of $49.5 billion.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through March 2012.

Exports increased in March, and are at record levels. Imports increased even more. Exports are 13% above the pre-recession peak and up 7% compared to March 2011; imports are 3% above the pre-recession peak, and up about 8% compared to March 2011.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through March.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil averaged $107.95 per barrel in March, up from $103.63 in February. Import oil prices were probably a little higher in April too, but will probably decline in May. The increase in imports was a combination of more petroleum imports and more imports from China.

• BLS: Job Openings increased in March

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in March to 3.737 million, up from 3.565 million in February. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up about 17% year-over-year compared to March 2011. This is the highest level for job openings since July 2008.

Quits increased in March, and quits are now up about 8.5% year-over-year and quits are now at the highest level since 2008. These are voluntary separations and more quits might indicate some improvement in the labor market. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

All current employment graphs
• REO Inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA

This graph shows the combined REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA (FHA through Feb 2012).

The combined REO inventory is down to 203 thousand in Q1 2012, down about 18% from Q1 2011.

The pace of REO acquisitions will probably increase following the mortgage servicer settlement (signed off on April 5th); and dispositions will probably increase too.

• CoreLogic: House Price Index increases in March, Down 0.6% Year-over-year

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® March Home Price Index Shows Slight Year-Over-Year Decrease of Less Than One Percent

[CoreLogic March Home Price Index (HPI®) report] shows that nationally home prices, including distressed sales, declined on a year-over-year basis by 0.6 percent in March 2012 compared to March 2011. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 0.6 percent in March 2012 compared to February 2012, the first month-over-month increase since July 2011.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 0.6% in March, and is down 0.6% over the last year.

The index is off 34% from the peak - and is just above the post-bubble low set last month.

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 367,000

Here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 379,000.

This decline in the 4-week moving average followed for four consecutive increases.

This was close to the consensus of 366,000. This is two consecutive weeks with initial unemployment claims in the 360s, after averaging close to 390,000 over the previous 3 weeks.


All current Employment Graphs
• NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in April

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 94.5 in April from 92.5 in March. This ties February 2011 as the highest level since December 2007.

Another positive sign is that the "single most important problem" was not "poor sales" in April - for the first time in years. In the best of times, small business owners complain about taxes and regulations, and that is starting to happen again.

This index remains low, but as housing continues to recover, I expect this index to increase (there is a high concentration of real estate related companies in this index).

• Consumer Sentiment increases in May to 77.8

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May increased to 77.8, up from the April reading of 76.4.

This was above the consensus forecast of 76.2 and the highest level since January 2008. Overall sentiment is still fairly weak - probably due to a combination of the high unemployment rate, high gasoline prices and the sluggish economy.

• Other Economic Stories ...
• LPS: House Price Index increased 0.2% in February
• Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities
• Sacramento: Percentage of Distressed House Sales increases slightly in April
• Lawler: REO inventory of "the F's" and PLS
• Fannie Mae reports $2.7 billion in income, REO inventory declines in Q1 2012
• The economic impact of stabilizing house prices?
• The Declining Participation Rate
• Housing: Inventory declines 21% year-over-year in early May

by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2012 07:38:00 PM

Something for a Friday evening ...

From the Athens News: No more bets for Greek euro exit

Want a flutter on Greece leaving the euro zone? It may already be too late. A surge in bets has forced Britain's biggest bookmakers William Hill Plc and Ladbrokes Plc to suspend betting on the odds of Greece dropping out.
...
William Hill said the level of betting on Greece quitting first was such that it had become too risky to continue taking bets ...

"We've had Greece as hot favourites for some time but increasingly it was becoming the only one that people wanted to bet on," said a spokesman for William Hill, Britain's largest betting firm.

"It wasn't a healthy situation for bookmakers. We found it was virtually impossible to make a book."

Britain's second-biggest betting firm Ladbrokes said it had suspended betting on Greece dropping out of the euro zone by the end of the year, after repeatedly slashing the odds.

"It is safer for us to suspend betting than to keep cutting the odds," a spokesman for Ladbrokes said. "We have been slashing the odds repeatedly over the last few days."

Maybe they could take bets on when Greece will leave the euro. The Europeans have said they support Greece through the next election (June 17th) ... after that ... who knows?