by Bill McBride on 5/12/2012 01:00:00 PM
Saturday, May 12, 2012
• Summary for Week Ending May 11th
This will be a busy week. There are two key housing reports to be released this week: May homebuilder confidence on Tuesday, and April housing starts on Wednesday.
Another key report is April retail sales. For manufacturing, the May NY Fed (Empire state) and Philly Fed surveys, and the April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report will be released this week.
Also, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 1st Quarter National Delinquency Survey, and the AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April will be released on Wednesday.
Europe will remain in the spotlight with a Eurogroup meeting on Monday, and euro area Q1 GDP being released in Tuesday.
No economic releases scheduled.
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales for April.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales were up 0.8% in March and 1.0% in February. There will probably be some payback in April for the strong retail reports over the previous two months.
The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.1% in April, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.2%.
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for April. The consensus is for no change in headline CPI (with the decline in energy prices). The consensus is for core CPI to increase 0.2%.
8:30 AM ET: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 6.6 in April (above zero is expansion).
9:30 AM: Speech by Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke, "Prescriptions for Housing Recovery", At the National Association of Realtors Midyear Legislative Meetings and Trade Expo, Washington, D.C.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for March (Business inventories). The consensus is for 0.4% increase in inventories.
10:00 AM: The May NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 26, up slightly from 25 in April. Although this index has been increasing lately, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for April.
Total housing starts were at 654 thousand (SAAR) in March and single-family starts at 462 thousand in March. This was a decline from the February rate, but most of the decline was related to the volatile multi-family sector. Based on permits, starts probably rebounded in April.
The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 690,000 (SAAR) in April from 654,000 in March.
9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April.
This shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production in April, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.0% (from 78.6%).
10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 1st Quarter 2012 National Delinquency Survey (NDS).
This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due through Q4 2011. Based on other data, the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate probably declined slightly in Q1.
The key problem remains the large number of seriously delinquent loans (90+ days and in the foreclosure process), especially in judicial foreclosure states like Florida, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois. With the mortgage servicer settlement signed off on April 5th, the delinquency rate will probably start falling faster by mid-2012 through a combination of more modifications and more foreclosures.
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of April 24-25, 2012.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to be essentially unchanged at 365 thousand compared to 367 thousand last week.
10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 8.5 last month (above zero indicates expansion).
10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for April. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in this index.
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2012