by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2012 08:16:00 PM

While we wait for news from Europe, here is an update from economist Tom Lawler:

Several of the home sales reports I’ve seen since early last Friday showed materially stronger YOY growth than I had expected, especially in a number of Midwest markets. As a result, I have upped my estimate for January existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors. Right now my regional tracking suggests that the NAR will report that existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.76 million, up about 3.3% from December’s pace, and up about 2.6% from last January’s pace. Note that January is seasonally the weakest month of the year in terms of closed home sales. (The weakest month for contracts signed from a seasonal perspective is December).

On the inventory front, it is pretty clear that existing home listings fell again nationally last month, though various “trackers” differ on how much. In addition, the NAR’s reported monthly inventory drop of 9.2 in December was significantly larger than listings data seemed to suggest. My “best guess” is that the NAR will report a monthly inventory drop of about 2.2%, which would be a YOY drop of 20.0%. While most realtor groups/associations reported a decline in active listings from December to January, there were several that reported increases.

CR Note: This sales rate, combined with a decline in inventory, could put months-of-supply under 6 months for the first time since early 2006. Some of the decline is seasonal (inventory is always low in January and months-of-supply uses NSA inventory numbers). The NAR is scheduled to report existing home sales on Wednesday.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2012 04:17:00 PM

Update2: Live video of meeting room (empty are 5 PM ET). A Greek site is reporting the main meeting has concluded, but they are still working on the Private Sector haircuts.

Resources here (Update: delayed as usual ...)

Press conference soon

This webcast is scheduled to start on 20 February 2012 23:00 CET

STARTING TIME SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

EU Press Releases (no statement yet)

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2012 12:54:00 PM

By request, the following graphs show the percent of loans delinquent by loan type: Prime, Subprime, FHA and VA. First a table comparing the number of loans in 2007 and Q4 2011 so readers can understand the shift in loan types.

Both the number of prime and subprime loans have declined over the last four years; the number of subprime loans is down by about one-third. Meanwhile the number of FHA loans has increased sharply.

Note: There are about 49 million total first-lien loans - the MBA survey is about 88% of the total.

MBA National Delinquency Survey Loan Count
	Q2 2007	Q4 2011	Change	Q4 2011 Seriously Delinquent
Prime	33,916,830	30,660,085	-3,256,745	1,631,117
Subprime	6,204,535	4,178,732	-2,025,803	1,017,521
FHA	3,030,214	6,611,396	3,581,182	596,348
VA	1,096,450	1,442,416	345,966	69,813
Survey Total	44,248,029	42,892,629	-1,355,400	3,314,799

Click on graph for larger image.

First a repeat: This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Loans 30 days delinquent increased to 3.22% from 3.19% in Q3. This is at about 2007 levels. Delinquent loans in the 60 day bucket decreased to 1.25% from 1.30% in Q4. This is the lowest level since Q4 2007.

There was a decrease in the 90+ day delinquent bucket too. This decreased to 3.11% from 3.50% in Q3 2011. This is the lowest level since 2008, but still way above normal (probably around 1% would be normal). The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined slightly to 4.38% from 4.43%.

Note: Scale changes for each of the following graphs.

The second graph is for all prime loans.

This is the key category now ("We are all subprime!", Tanta).

Since there are far more prime loans than any other category (see table above), about half the loans seriously delinquent now are prime loans - even though the overall delinquency rate is lower than other loan types.

This graph is for subprime. This category gets most of the attention - mostly because of all the terrible loans made through the Wall Street "originate-to-distribute" model and sold as Private Label Securities (PLS). Not all PLS was subprime, but the worst of the worst loans were packaged in PLS.

Although the delinquency rate is still very high, the number of subprime loans has declined sharply.

This graph is for FHA loans. The delinquency rate increased in Q4. Most of the FHA loans were made in the last few years, not in the 2004 to 2006 period like subprime - but as those loans season, the delinquency rate is expected to increase.

The earlier improvement was a combination of the increase in number of loans (recent loans have lower delinquency rates) and eliminating Downpayment Assistance Programs (DAPs). These were programs that allowed the seller to give the buyer the downpayment through a 3rd party "charity" (for a fee of course). The buyer had no money in the house and the default rates were absolutely horrible.

The last graph is for VA loans. This is a fairly small category (see table above).

There are still quite a few subprime loans that are in distress, but the real keys are prime loans and FHA loans.

All current mortgage delinquency graphs.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2012 08:46:00 AM

From the Athens News: Venizelos: Bailout uncertainty to end

Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Monday technical issues on the country's new bailout package were still being discussed but that he expected the uncertainty to end at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels.

"We expect today the long period of uncertainty – which was in the interest of neither the Greek economy nor the euro zone as a whole – to end," Venizelos was quoted as saying in a finance ministry statement.

From the WSJ: Finance Ministers Look to Sign Off on Greek Deal

Finance ministers from the 17 euro-zone countries will meet in Brussels at 2 p.m. GMT on Monday, looking to sign off on a deal worth at least €130 billion ($170.9 billion) that will slash Greece's debt burden and allow it to stay in the euro zone, albeit under a degree of external control and scrutiny never witnessed in Europe in modern times.

From the Financial Times: Eurozone crisis: live blog

Weekend:
• Summary for Week ending February 17th
• Schedule for Week of February 19th

by Calculated Risk on 2/19/2012 04:46:00 PM

Not a surprise ... from the WSJ: IMF Draft Sees Greek Debt Reaching 129% of GDP in 2020

The International Monetary Fund now expects Greece's debt to reach 129% of the country's gross domestic product in 2020 ... That is even further above the level most economists consider sustainable than previously thought, making it more difficult than ever to argue that the country can ever repay its debts.

Despite this, a number of signs last week had indicated that there was still enough political will in the euro zone to go ahead with a new, enhanced rescue package.

It still sounds like something will be worked out. We will know soon. Here are a few key dates for Greece.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week ending February 17th
• Schedule for Week of February 19th