by Bill McBride on 2/18/2012 01:15:00 PM
Saturday, February 18, 2012
• Summary for Week ending February 17th
The key reports this week are the January existing home sales report on Wednesday and the new home sales report on Friday. The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for January will also be released on Wednesday.
On Friday, the US Monetary Policy Forum will be held in New York. The discussion will focus on a paper titled: “Housing, Monetary Policy and the Recovery”.
In Europe, the euro-area finance ministers will meet on Monday.
All US markets will be closed in observance of Presidents' Day.
Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the Greek debt deal.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January). This is a composite index of other data.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The consensus is for sales of 4.69 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate basis.
Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.66 million, up slightly from December’s pace. It is possible that months-of-supply will be under 6 months for the first time since early 2006, and that listed inventory will be at the lowest level since early-2005.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 355,000 from 348,000 last week.
10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for December 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for January. The consensus is for an increase in this survey to 9 from 7 in January (above zero is expansion).
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
The consensus is for a slight increase in sales to 315 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in January from 307 thousand in December. The consensus might be a little low based on the homebuilder confidence survey.
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for February). The consensus is for a slight increase to 72.9 from from the preliminary reading of 72.5.
During the day: 2012 US Monetary Policy Forum
[T]here will be a presentation on this year’s report on housing and the state of the recovery, which explores first, how bad is the physical and debt overhang of housing in the US economy? And secondly, does the peculiar state of the US housing market substantially limit the effectiveness of monetary policy that lowers long rates? The report titled "Housing, Monetary Policy and the Recovery," is being written by Mike Feroli (JP Morgan), Ethan Harris (Bank of America), Amir Sufi (Chicago Booth), and Ken West (University of Wisconsin). James Bullard (Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis) and John Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) will discuss the report.