by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2012 04:24:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. Prices, as of the November report, were off 61.6% from the peak according to Case-Shiller, and off 9.2% over the last year. Prices just keep falling. Sales in 2011 were at record levels, more than during the bubble, and it looks like 2012 will be an even stronger year.

From the LVGAR: GLVAR January 2012 Housing Statistics

GLVAR reported that 48,186 local properties were sold in 2011, including 38,153 single-family homes and 10,033 condominiums and townhomes. That broke GLVAR’s all-time sales record set in 2009, when it reported 46,879 total sales. In 2010, GLVAR reported 43,877 total sales.

“At the rate we’re going, 2012 has the potential to be another record sales year,” she said.

According to GLVAR, the total number of local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in the traditionally slow sales month of January was 3,591. That’s down from 4,250 in December 2011, but up from 3,214 total sales in January 2011.
...
The total number of homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service decreased from December to January, with a total of 19,160 single-family homes listed for sale at the end of the month. That’s down 0.4 percent from 19,230 single-family homes listed for sale at the end of December and down 12.9 percent from one year ago. GLVAR reported a total of 4,133 condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS at the end of January. That’s up 1.8 percent from 4,061 condos and townhomes listed in December, but down 25.6 percent from one year ago.
...
In January, GLVAR reported that 52.5 percent of all existing homes sold in Southern Nevada were purchased with cash. That’s up from 50.8 percent in December. Meanwhile, 28.1 percent of all existing local homes sold during January were short sales ... Bank-owned homes accounted for 45.5 percent of all existing home sales in January, down from 46.0 percent in December 2011.

So 73.6% of the sales were distressed, and over half were purchased with cash.

One of the keys is the decline in inventory. Note that the GLVAR reports both total inventory, and inventory excluding "contingent" listings (usually short sales). Total single family inventory was down 12.9% from a year ago, and excluding contingent listings, inventory was down 35.8%!

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2012 11:27:00 AM

Yesterday Goldman Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn argued that the labor force participation rate would remain "broadly flat at 63.7% through the end of 2013". He argued there would be a cyclical boost to the participation rate this year from the recovering economy, but a structural decline in the participation rate due to demographics. (Note: some decline in the participation rate has been expected over the next couple of decades).

The updated population controls from the 2010 Census showed a higher percentage of younger and older workers compared to the prime working age group (25 to 54), and also more women (participation rate is lower for women) than originally estimated - so the aggregate participation rate is now at 63.7%. Stehn argues that structural factors alone could push the aggregate participation rate down further to 63.1% by the end of 2012, but that this will probably be offset by more people returning to the labor force as the economy recovers.

The participation rate plays a key role in calculating to unemployment rate. First a few definitions from the BLS Glossary:

• Civilian noninstitutional population: Included are persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 States and the District of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.

• Labor force: The labor force includes all persons classified as employed or unemployed in accordance with the definitions contained in this glossary.

• Labor force participation rate: The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population.

• Unemployment rate: The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the labor force.

So a lower participation rate - with the same level of employment - would mean a lower unemployment rate.

Below is a table showing the sensitivity of the unemployment rate to three levels of the participation rate (centered around Goldman's forecast) and three rates of job creation for 2012. (note: this is mixing two different surveys - the household survey for the participation rate and unemployment rate, and the establishment survey for payroll jobs. Over time these two surveys move together, but there can be significant variability in the short run).

December 2012 Unemployment Rate based on Jobs added and Participation Rate
		Participation Rate
		63.4%	63.7%	64.0%
Jobs added per month (000s)	150	7.6%	8.0%	8.5%
	200	7.2%	7.7%	8.1%
	250	6.9%	7.3%	7.8%

If the January pace of payroll employment growth continues (around 250 thousand jobs per month), and the participation rate stays at 63.7%, then the unemployment rate could fall to 7.3% in December 2012. But even at a slower pace of payroll growth, the unemployment rate could be at or below 8% by the end of the year - unless the participation rate rises or the economy slows sharply.

The recent FOMC projections (see below) are for the unemployment rate to be in the 8.2% to 8.5% range by Q4 2012, and perhaps the FOMC was expecting the participation rate to increase this year.

If the participation rate doesn't increase, and payroll growth continues (even at 150 thousand per month), then the FOMC projections are too high. But even if the FOMC revises down their unemployment rate forecast, they will still view a 7.5% to 8% unemployment rate at the end of 2012 as unacceptably high.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate1	2012	2013	2014
January 2012 Projections	8.2 to 8.5	7.4 to 8.1	6.7 to 7.6

¹ Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2012 08:33:00 AM

From the MBA: Refinance Activity Increases as Rates Hit Survey Lows

The Refinance Index increased 9.4 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 4.05 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 4.09 percent ...

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500)decreased to 4.29 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 4.33 percent ...

The purchase index is still moving sideways at a very low level, but I expect the changes to HARP to lead to a surge in refinance activity in March.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2012 08:38:00 PM

From the WSJ: Concession Smooths Way Toward a Greek Debt Deal

The European Central Bank has made key concessions over its holdings of Greek government bonds ... The ECB has agreed to exchange the government bonds it purchased in the secondary market last year at a price below face value ...

The idea is for the ECB, in effect, to exchange its Greek bonds for bonds of the European Financial Stability Facility ... The EFSF ... will return the bonds to Greece, and Greece will then agree to repay the EFSF for the price at which the fund bought the bonds from the ECB ... officials said the ECB's concessions could contribute a maximum €11 billion to fill a gap estimated at some €15 billion

The ECB would break even, or might even make a small profit on the transaction. A similar plan would probably help Portugal and Ireland too.

From the Financial Times: Greece misses bail-out deadline

Greece missed another deadline ... on Tuesday night ... [Prime Minister] Lucas Papademos ... would hold the talks on Wednesday morning and expected a deal to be presented for approval at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers later in the week.
excerpt with permission

I still think a deal is likely.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2012 06:08:00 PM

From MarketWatch: New York AG cancels bank settlement statement

New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman late Tuesday postponed a much anticipated conference call with reporters that was set up to announce whether the state would participate in broad a settlement with five big banks over foreclosure practices.

Uh, never mind.