by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2012 08:05:00 PM

From the Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve releases templates for reporting FOMC participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate

The Federal Reserve on Friday released blank templates showing the format of the two charts it will use on January 25 to report Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate. It also released a draft of an explanatory note that will accompany the projections.

The first chart, which will have shaded bars when released on January 25, will show FOMC participants’ projections for the timing of the initial increase in the target federal funds rate. The second chart, which will have dots representing policymakers’ individual projections when released on January 25, will show participants’ views of the appropriate path of the federal funds rate over the next several years and in the longer run.

From Luca Di Leo and Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Details How It Will Release Rate Forecasts

One of the new charts is a bar chart showing in which year officials expect to see the first short-term interest rate increase, with options ranging from 2012 all the way out to 2016. ... It was striking that the Fed charts go all the way out to 2016 — suggesting that some officials don’t see rate hikes for many more years.

These projections will be released next Wednesday as part of the usually quarterly economic projections.

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in December: 4.61 million SAAR, 6.2 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
• Existing Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2012 06:11:00 PM

What's that crashing sound?
Houston, we have a problem.
Eagle has landed
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Capital Bank, National Association, Rockville, Maryland, Assumes All of the Deposits of American Eagle Savings Bank, Boothwyn, Pennsylvania

As of September 30, 2011, American Eagle Savings Bank had approximately $19.6 million in total assets and $17.7 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $3.2 million. ... American Eagle Savings Bank is the third FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Pennsylvania.

That makes 3 today so far. The FDIC is back to work.

by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2012 05:08:00 PM

New year, same pattern.
Florida, Georgian failures
Wash, then rinse, repeat
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: CenterState Bank of Florida, National Association, Winter Haven, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of Central Florida State Bank, Belleview, Florida

As of September 30, 2011, Central Florida State Bank had approximately $79.1 million in total assets and $77.7 million in total deposits ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $24.4 million. ... Central Florida State Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Florida.

From the FDIC: Hamilton State Bank, Hoschton, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of the First State Bank, Stockbridge, Georgia

As of September 30, 2011, The First State Bank had approximately $536.9 million in total assets and $527.5 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $216.2 million. ... The First State Bank is the second FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Georgia.

And so it begins in 2012.

by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2012 03:35:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 14 January

The U.S. hotel industry experienced increases in all three key performance metrics during the week of 8-14 January 2012, according to data from STR.

In year-over-year comparisons for the week, occupancy was up 4.9 percent to 52.1 percent, average daily rate increased 5.6 percent to US$102.99 and revenue per available room was up 10.8 percent to US$53.65.

This is the weak season for hotel occupancy, but this is a fairly strong improvement over the same period last year. Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2012, yellow is for 2011, blue is "normal" and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels).

Hotels have seen a solid start to 2012. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is back to normal.

Looking forward, February and March are the next key period - that is when business travel usually picks up.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in December: 4.61 million SAAR, 6.2 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
• Existing Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2012 12:35:00 PM

The NAR reported inventory fell to 2.38 million in December. This is down 21.2% from December 2010, and this is about 16% below the inventory level in December 2005 (2005 was when inventory started increasing sharply). Inventory is about 7% above the level in December 2004. This decline in inventory was a significant story in 2011.

The following graph shows inventory by month since 2004. In 2004 (black line), inventory was fairly flat and declined at the end of the year. In 2005 (dark blue line), inventory kept rising all year - and that was a clear sign that the housing bubble was ending.

Click on graph for larger image.

This year (dark red) inventory is at the lowest level since 2004. Inventory is still elevated - especially with the much lower sales rate - but lower inventory levels put less downward pressure on house prices (of course the level of distressed properties is still very high, and there is a significant shadow inventory).

Note that inventory usually starts increasing in February and March, and peaks in July and August. The seasonal increase in inventory will be something to watch this spring and summer.

The following graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

The red columns are for 2011.

Sales NSA are slightly above December 2009 and December 2010, but sales are far below the bubble years of 2005 and 2006.

The level of sales is still elevated due to investor buying. The NAR noted:

All-cash sales accounted for 31 percent of purchases in December, up from 28 percent in November and 29 percent in December 2010. Investors account for the bulk of cash transactions.

Investors purchased 21 percent of homes in December, up from 19 percent in November and 20 percent in December 2010.

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in December: 4.61 million SAAR, 6.2 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales graphs