by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2011 01:34:00 PM

This is one of the industry specific metrics I track - from HotelNewsNow.com: New Orleans hotels top weekly performance gains

Overall, the U.S. hotel industry’s occupancy increased 3.2% to 53.5%, its ADR increased 3.6% to US$102.12 and its RevPAR finished the week with an increase of 6.9% to US$54.65.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

This year is almost over! The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will decline until mid-January and then start to increase again (the normal seasonal pattern). February and March are the next key period - that is when business travel usually picks up.

Right now the occupancy rate is running at the median rate for 2000 - 2007. But this is just the occupancy rate, room rates are still lower than before the recession.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

Earlier:
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 366,000
• Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in November, Capacity Utilization decreased
• Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing Indexes show improvement in December

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2011 10:15:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity improved in New York State in December. The general business conditions index rose nine points to 9.5, its highest level since May. The new orders index climbed above zero, to 5.1, and the shipments index advanced eleven points to 20.9. ... Employment indexes were mixed, showing a slight increase in employment levels but a slight decrease in the length of the average workweek.

From the Philly Fed: December 2011 Business Outlook Survey

The diffusion index of current activity, the survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, remained positive for the third consecutive month and increased from 3.6 in November to 10.3. ... The current employment index remained positive at 10.7, only 1 point lower than in November. The average workweek index also remained positive but fell nearly 9 points.

Both surveys indicate expansion in December, and at a faster pace than in November. Both indexes were above the consensus forecasts.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through December. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through November.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys increased again in December and suggests the December ISM index will be in the mid 50s.
All current manufacturing graphs

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2011 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in November after having advanced 0.7 percent in October. Factory output moved down 0.4 percent in November; excluding a drop of 3.4 percent in the output of motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing production declined 0.2 percent. Mining production edged up 0.1 percent, while the output of utilities rose 0.2 percent. At 94.8 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for November was 3.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry decreased to 77.8 percent, a rate 2.0 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2010) average.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 10.5 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 77.8% is still 2.6 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession levels of 81.3% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased in November to 94.8, however October was revised up (this would have been an increase without the upward revisions to previous months).

The consensus was for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production in October, and for no change (at 77.8%) for Capacity Utilization. Adjusting for the upward revisions to October (and previous months), this was slightly below consensus.

All current manufacturing graphs

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2011 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending December 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 366,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 385,000. The 4-week moving average was 387,750, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average of 394,250.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week to 387,750.

This is the lowest level for weekly claims - and the lowest level for the 4-week average - since early 2008.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:






All current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2011 10:55:00 PM

In an earlier post - The Excess Vacant Housing Supply - I mentioned that there are serious question about the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (CPS/HVS) survey, and that it is probably not useful for estimating the excess vacant housing supply.

There is another more robust annual survey - the American Community Survey (ACS) - that is based on a sample of 3 million housing units every year. Unfortunately this data doesn't jibe with the decennial Census data.

The table below shows the ACS estimates of total housing units taken every July 1st. In 2000, the ACS was benchmarked to the 2000 decennial Census (as of April 1st). I've included the total completion data for single family, multi-family, manufactured homes - and calculated the implied number of demolitions using the change in the ACS.

For most years the ACS data looks somewhat reasonable, although I'd expect the number of demolitions to have peaked in 2004 through 2006. Over the first nine years of the decade, the change in the ACS averaged about 200 thousand less than total completions - suggesting demolitions of around 200 thousand per year and that is probably reasonable.

However, in April 2010, the decennial Census showed significantly more housing units than the ACS had captured (obviously a negative 1.15 million homes weren't demolished in early 2010!) The decennial Census data itself seems a little off since it suggests only about 645 thousand housing units were demolished during the decade (that would be very low). Most estimates are demolitions are in the 200 to 300 thousand per year range (so the ACS seemed reasonable through the first 9 year of the decade).

These discrepancies really needs to be explained before the ACS can be used for estimating the excess supply of vacant housing units. It is possible the 2000 Census under counted the total number of housing units - or the 2010 Census over counted the total. Or perhaps the completion data from the Census Bureau is low. But this shows one of the reason it is very difficult to estimate the excess vacant housing supply - an error of over 1 million units is huge.

Source	Date	Period	Total Housing Units	Change	Completions, Total	Calculated Demolitions
Census	4/1/2000		115,904,473
ACS	7/1/2000	3 Months	116,300,799	396,326	468,300	71,974
ACS	7/1/2001	1 Year	117,905,005	1,604,206	1,719,600	115,394
ACS	7/1/2002	1 Year	119,456,206	1,551,201	1,771,800	220,599
ACS	7/1/2003	1 Year	121,076,837	1,620,631	1,784,700	164,069
ACS	7/1/2004	1 Year	122,824,501	1,747,664	1,866,000	118,336
ACS	7/1/2005	1 Year	124,711,041	1,886,540	1,980,900	94,360
ACS	7/1/2006	1 Year	126,500,212	1,789,171	2,068,800	279,629
ACS	7/1/2007	1 Year	128,132,164	1,631,952	1,831,600	199,648
ACS	7/1/2008	1 Year	129,313,137	1,180,973	1,370,200	189,227
ACS	7/1/2009	1 Year	129,969,653	656,516	999,700	343,184
Census	4/1/2010	9 Months	131,704,730	1,735,077	584,000	-1,151,077
Decennial Census Change:			15,800,257		16,445,600	645,343