by Bill McBride on 12/15/2011 09:15:00 AM
Thursday, December 15, 2011
From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in November after having advanced 0.7 percent in October. Factory output moved down 0.4 percent in November; excluding a drop of 3.4 percent in the output of motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing production declined 0.2 percent. Mining production edged up 0.1 percent, while the output of utilities rose 0.2 percent. At 94.8 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for November was 3.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry decreased to 77.8 percent, a rate 2.0 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2010) average.Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 10.5 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).
Capacity utilization at 77.8% is still 2.6 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession levels of 81.3% in December 2007.
Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.
Industrial production decreased in November to 94.8, however October was revised up (this would have been an increase without the upward revisions to previous months).
The consensus was for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production in October, and for no change (at 77.8%) for Capacity Utilization. Adjusting for the upward revisions to October (and previous months), this was slightly below consensus.
Posted by Bill McBride on 12/15/2011 09:15:00 AM