by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2011 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings in October was 3.3 million, essentially unchanged from 3.4 million in September. Although the number of job openings remained below the 4.4 million openings when the recession began in December 2007, the level in October was 1.2 million higher than in July 2009 (the most recent trough for the series). The number of job openings has increased 35 percent since the end of the recession in June 2009.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This is a new series and only started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October, the most recent employment report was for November.

Click on graph for larger image.

Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings declined slightly in October, but the number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and are up about 13% year-over-year compared to October 2010.

Quits declined in October, but have mostly been trending up - and quits are now up about 10% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations and more quits might indicate some improvement in the labor market. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2011 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.2% from October to November (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 6.7% from November 2010. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $399.3 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 6.7 percent (±0.7%) above November 2010.

Retail sales excluding autos increased 0.2% in November.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 20.0% from the bottom, and now 5.5% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.0% on a YoY basis (6.7% for all retail sales).

This was below the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.5% increase in November, and a 0.4% increase ex-auto.

All current retail sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2011 07:43:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small-Business Confidence Rises for Third Consecutive Month: Is Hope for the Economy on the Horizon?

Small-business optimism rose for the third consecutive month, gaining 1.8 points in November, and settling at a still weak 92.0, according to the National Federation of Independent Business’ (NFIB’s) latest index. ... Optimism appears to have climbed because fewer owners expect business conditions or sales to be worse in six months, indicating some hope on the horizon. Improvement, although small, was widespread with the forward-looking components indicating positive trends for the first time in many months.

“After so many months of pessimism, November’s modest gain made it feel like spring, again,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “We have good reason to be optimistic about last month’s report and hopeful about what it means for the future."

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 92.0 in November from 90.2 in October. This is the third increase in a row after declining for six consecutive months.

The second graph shows the net hiring plans for the next three months.

Hiring plans were still fairly low in November, but the trend is up - and this is the strongest reading in 38 months.

According to NFIB: “The employment picture brightened last month, ending five months of decline. In November, NFIB owners reported an overall increase in employment of 0.12 workers per firm in November. ... Future hiring plans were also positive. Over the next three months, a seasonally adjusted net seven percent of owners plan to create new jobs—a 4 point improvement from October and the strongest reading in 38 months."

Twenty five percent of small business owners reported that weak sales continued to be their top business problem in November.

In good times, owners usually report taxes and regulation as their biggest problems.

The optimism index declined sharply in August due to the debt ceiling debate and only rebounded modestly over the last three months. This index has been slow to recover - probably due to a combination of sluggish growth, and the high concentration of real estate related companies in the index.

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2011 08:50:00 PM

From the WSJ: Economy Poised for Growth Spurt, but Risks Abound

Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers on Friday raised its estimate to 3.7%, from 3.5%, while Goldman Sachs has raised its target to 3.4% from the 2.5% it was predicting two weeks ago.

Nomura Global Economics lifted its target from 3.7% to 3.9%, which, if achieved, would match the fastest quarterly growth of the recovery.

It does look like GDP growth will be slightly above trend in Q4, but this is still weak growth considering all the slack in the economy. Back in Q4 2009 and early 2010, real GDP increased at around 3.8% annualized for a few quarters, but almost all of that growth was from increases in private inventories (a classic inventory cycle). This quarter most of the increase will be from final demand.

However some of this "growth spurt" is just a bounce back from earlier events - auto sales have finally recovered from the impact of the tsunami, and consumer and business spending have bounced back a little from the threat of a U.S. default in August during the debt ceiling debate.

And recently personal spending has been increasing faster than personal incomes, and the saving rate has been declining. That isn't sustainable.

Also, there are significant concerns about the first half of 2012 both from the European financial crisis and from fiscal tightening in the U.S. (fiscal policy in the U.S. will subtract from GDP in 2012 even if the payroll tax cut is extended).

Overall I still expect sluggish growth in early 2012, but at a slower pace than in Q4.

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2011 04:52:00 PM

From the WSJ: Realtors to Revise 2007-2011 Sales Data Lower

The National Association of Realtors, which publishes the monthly report on sales of previously occupied homes, said it will release revisions to home sales for 2007 through 2010 and for the first 10 months of this year. The data is scheduled to be released on Dec. 21, along with the group’s monthly report on home sales in November.

Last year the NAR reported sales of 4.9 million previously occupied homes. I expect 2010 sales to be revised down by 10% to 15%. Using the HousingTracker data, I've estimated 2010 sales will be revised down to around 4.25 million.