by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2011 04:07:00 PM

There are only a few areas where the MLS breaks down monthly sales by foreclosure, short sales and conventional (non-distressed) sale. I've been tracking the Sacramento market to watch for changes in the mix over time. (here was my post yesterday: Distressed House Sales using Sacramento Data)

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the following table today for a few other areas. The usual suspects have the highest percentage of distressed sales: Las Vegas and Phoenix. Sacramento is similar to Phoenix.

The Mid-Atlantic area - covered by the MRIS (Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.) has a relatively low level of distressed sales.

Why short sales in Minneapolis are so low relative to foreclosures is a mystery ...

I'll be watching for when the percentage of distressed sales starts to decline (I might have to be patient!).

September MLS Sales Share, Selected Areas
	Foreclosure Share	Short Sales Share	"Non-Distressed" Share
Las Vegas	49.4%	23.5%	27.1%
Reno (SF)	38.0%	31.0%	31.0%
Phoenix	37.1%	27.0%	35.9%
Sacramento	37.9%	26.1%	36.0%
Minneapolis	28.4%	11.3%	60.3%
"Mid-Atlantic"*	14.4%	12.6%	73.0%
*area covered by MRIS, including DC and Baltimore metro areas

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2011 02:00:00 PM

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 20-21, 2011. Excerpts:

Participants saw considerable uncertainty surrounding the outlook for a gradual pickup in economic growth.
...
Several commented that, with households and businesses seeking to reduce leverage rather than to borrow and with housing markets in distress, some of the normal mechanisms through which monetary policy actions are transmitted to the real economy appeared to be attenuated. Many participants saw significant downside risks to economic growth. While they did not anticipate a downturn in economic activity, several remarked that, with growth slow, the recovery was more vulnerable to adverse shocks. Risks included the possibility of more pronounced or more protracted deleveraging by households, the chance of a larger-than-expected near-term fiscal tightening, and potential spillovers to the United States if the financial situation in Europe were to worsen appreciably. Participants agreed to consider further how best to use their monetary policy and liquidity tools to deal with such shocks if they were to occur.

On policy:

In the discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, most members agreed that the revisions to the economic outlook warranted some additional monetary policy accommodation to support a stronger recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, was at a level consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.
...
Those viewing greater policy accommodation as appropriate at this meeting generally supported a maturity extension program that would combine asset purchases and sales to extend the average maturity of securities held in the SOMA without generating a substantial expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet or reserve balances.
...
Two members said that current conditions and the outlook could justify stronger policy action, but they supported undertaking the maturity extension program at this meeting as it did not rule out additional steps at future meetings. Three members concluded that additional accommodation was not appropriate at this time.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2011 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings in August was 3.1 million, little changed from July. Although the number of job openings remained below the 4.4 million openings when the recession began in December 2007, the level in August was 944,000 higher than in July 2009 (the most recent trough). The number of job openings is up 26 percent since the end of the recession in June 2009.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This is a new series and only started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for August, the most recent employment report was for September.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

In general job openings (yellow) has been trending up, and are up about 7% year-over-year compared to August 2010. Layoffs and discharges are down about 10% year-over-year.

Quits increased in August, and have been trending up - and quits are now up about 10% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations and more quits might indicate some improvement in the labor market. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2011 09:00:00 AM

This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Falls for the Third Month in a Row – Down 1.0 Percent in September

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index®(PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, fell 1.0 percent in September on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, following a 1.4 percent decline in August and a 0.2 percent decline in July.
...
On a year-over-year basis, the PCI was down 0.2 percent in September. This month, the year-over-year change was below last year for the first time since May 2011, or the second time since January 2010; over the past four months, the year-over-year change has been rapidly declining. “Businesses appear to be unwilling to restock for a potentially vibrant holiday season at the same time as normal and they are planning to ramp up inventories late this year, if and when the sales start to materialize,” explained [Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast].

Due to the continued weakness in the PCI, our forecast for September Industrial Production is a 0.55 percent decline when the government estimate is released on October 17.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

This index has declined for three consecutive months after increasing slightly earlier in the year.

Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise).

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2011 07:34:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 1.3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1.1 percent from one week earlier.
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The average loan size of all loans for home purchase in the US was $210,863 in September 2011, down from $212,736 in August 2011. The average loan size for a refinance was $237,632, down from $241,323 in August.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 4.25 percent from 4.18 percent ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) increased to 4.59 percent from 4.49 percent

The following graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This was a small increase in the purchase index. This index declined sharply in August suggesting fairly weak home sales in September in October, not counting cash buyers (other reports suggest a high number of cash buyers in September).