by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2011 09:00:00 AM
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index declined in September
This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Falls for the Third Month in a Row – Down 1.0 Percent in September
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index®(PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, fell 1.0 percent in September on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, following a 1.4 percent decline in August and a 0.2 percent decline in July.
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On a year-over-year basis, the PCI was down 0.2 percent in September. This month, the year-over-year change was below last year for the first time since May 2011, or the second time since January 2010; over the past four months, the year-over-year change has been rapidly declining. “Businesses appear to be unwilling to restock for a potentially vibrant holiday season at the same time as normal and they are planning to ramp up inventories late this year, if and when the sales start to materialize,” explained [Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast].
Due to the continued weakness in the PCI, our forecast for September Industrial Production is a 0.55 percent decline when the government estimate is released on October 17.
![Pulse of Commerce Index](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjhf9VuGXsaXKExo4hcsazYWE0uXD93MjK3RP2ypOm35k-pbzlcnRQfjJg0CVWhWO7Mmr8wom7dhlbFXuhXSK0d372wi-kHEooBDo8pj9S50TRCJJGqzUwk_DUzkmdoH6IcBCf/s320/PulseCommerceSept2011.jpg)
This graph shows the index since January 2000.
This index has declined for three consecutive months after increasing slightly earlier in the year.
Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise).