by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2011 02:01:00 PM

I haven't updated this graph for some time ...

There have been 395 bank failures in this cycle (starting in 2007):

FDIC Bank Failures by Year
2007	3
2008	25
2009	140
2010	157
20111	73
Total	395
1Through Sept 23, 2011.

This graph shows the cumulative bank failures by week in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.

The FDIC has slowed down recently, and it appears the FDIC will close around 100 banks this year.

There are still quite a few problem banks, so there are probably quite a few banks failures to come.

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2011 09:23:00 AM

A little Sunday morning speculation ...

From the Telegraph: Multi-trillion plan to save the eurozone being prepared

German and French authorities have begun work on a three-pronged strategy behind the scenes amid escalating fears that the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis is spiralling out of control.
...
According to sources, progress has been made at the G20 meeting in Washington ... the world’s leading economies set themselves a six-week deadline to resolve the crisis – to unveil a solution by the G20 summit in Cannes on November 4.
...
First, Europe’s banks would have to be recapitalised with many tens of billions of euros to reassure markets that a Greek or Portuguese default would not precipitate a systemic financial crisis. ... Officials are confident that some banks could raise the funds privately, but if they are unable they would either be recapitalised by the state or by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) ...

The second leg of the plan is to bolster the EFSF. Economists have estimated it would need about Eu2 trillion of firepower to meet Italy and Spain’s financing needs in the event that the two countries were shut out of the markets. Officials are working on a way to leverage the EFSF through the European Central Bank to reach the target.

The complex deal would see the EFSF provide a loss-bearing “equity” tranche of any bail-out fund and the ECB the rest in protected “debt”.
...
As quid pro quo for an enhanced bail-out, the Germans are understood to be demanding a managed default by Greece but for the country to remain within the eurozone.

Earlier:
• Schedule for Week of Sept 25th
• Summary for Week Ending Sept 23rd

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2011 10:45:00 PM

From the NY Times: Europe Seeks to Ratchet Up Effort on Debt

Under increasing pressure from global investors and world leaders, European government officials indicated Saturday that they were working to intensify their response to the continent’s growing debt problems.
...
French and German officials here continued to insist publicly that they were focused on the July plan, but in private meetings this weekend they made clear that they now understand the need for a new proposal ...

“The threat of cascading default, bank runs and catastrophic risk must be taken off the table, as otherwise it will undermine all other efforts, both within Europe and globally,” Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in a statement on Saturday. “Decisions as to how to conclusively address the region’s problems cannot wait until the crisis gets more severe.

If this follows previous leaks, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will probably deny this tomorrow.

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2011 07:23:00 PM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Sept 23, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Finally, the OCC released some information on its recent enforcement action activity. Interestingly, the information only included actions against national banks as the OCC has yet to release any activity with thrifts since the merger with the OTS this summer. This week, there were five removals and seven additions and the changes leave the Unofficial Problem Bank List with 986 institutions and assets of $400.4 billion. Comparatively, there were 872 institutions with assets of $422.4 billion on the list a year ago.

The removals include an action termination against Border Capital Bank, National Association, McAllen, TX ($171 million); and two unassisted mergers -- GreenBank, Greenville, TN ($2.3 billion Ticker: GRNB) and The Merchants & Farmers Bank, Melville, LA ($8 million). Other removals include the two failures -- Bank of the Commonwealth, Norfolk, VA ($985 million Ticker: CWBS) and Citizens Bank of Northern California, Nevada City, CA ($289 million Ticker: CZNB).

Among the additions are Citizens National Bank of Texas, Waxahachie, TX ($526 million); Grayson National Bank, Independence, VA ($358 million Ticker: GSON); Fidelity National Bank, West Memphis, AR ($327 million); and Intercredit Bank, National Association, Miami, FL ($256 million). Long-time readers may remember that Intercredit Bank, N.A. was removed in July when the OCC terminated a Formal Agreement only to return this week under a Consent Order. The OCC is asymmetrical in the publication of its actions with terminations happening more real-time while new actions are issued with a lag. Perhaps the removal of Border Capital Bank, N.A. may prove premature if its Formal Agreement is actually replaced by a Consent Order like Intercredit Bank, N.A.

Next week, we expect the FDIC to release its actions through August 2011.

Earlier:
• Schedule for Week of Sept 25th
• Summary for Week Ending Sept 23rd

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2011 02:11:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending Sept 23rd

There are two key housing reports to be released early in the week: New Home sales on Monday, and Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.

Other key releases include the third estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday, and August Personal Income and Outlays on Friday. Several high frequency releases will be closely watched: weekly initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment (final) and three more regional Fed manufacturing surveys and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index.

----- Monday, Sept 26th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August). This is a composite index of other data.

9:15 AM: Speech, Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin, "Monetary Policy and Job Creation" At the University of Maryland Smith School of Business Distinguished Speaker Series, Washington, D.C.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

The consensus is for a slight decrease in sales to 295 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in August from 298 thousand in July. Given that new home sales are reported when contracts are signed - and August was an especially weak month due to the debt ceiling debate - sales might fall even further.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for September. The Texas production index increased 1.1 in August.

----- Tuesday, Sept 27th -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July. Although this is the July report, it is really a 3 month average of May, June and July.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for prices to increase 0.1% in July. The CoreLogic index showed a 0.8% increase in July (NSA). Based on other price indexes, the Case-Shiller index will probably increase a little more than the consensus.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for September. The consensus is for an increase to 46.2 from 44.5 last month.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September. The consensus is for the index to be at -9, up slightly from -10 in August (below zero is contraction).

----- Wednesday, Sept 28th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been especially weak over the last month.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in durable goods orders after increasing 4.0% in July.

5:00 PM: Speech, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Lessons from Emerging Market Economies on the Sources of Sustained Growth", At the Cleveland Clinic Ideas for Tomorrow Speaker Series, Cleveland, Ohio

----- Thursday, Sept 29th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 420,000 from 423,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (third estimate). This is the third estimate for Q2 GDP from the BEA.

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The first estimate was for 1.3% real annualized growth in Q2. Growth was revised down to 1.0% in the 2nd estimate. The consensus is for an upward revision to 1.2% in Q2.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is for a 2% decrease in the index.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for September. The index was at 3 in August (slight expansion).

----- Friday, Sept 30th -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for July. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June (2005 dollars).

PCE increased 0.8 in July, and real PCE increased 0.5% as the price index for PCE increased 0.4 percent in July.

The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in personal income in August, and a 0.2% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a decrease to 55.4, down from 56.5 in August.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for September). The consensus is for no change from the preliminary reading of 57.8.