by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2011 05:15:00 PM

The Census Bureau has released housing occupancy and vacancy data for all 50 states and D.C. (and Puerto Rico).

Here is a spreadsheet for the 50 states (and D.C.) including the 2000 and 1990 Census data. Note: Adjusted data is using this analysis (ht Tom Lawler)

The highest vacancy rates were for Maine (22.8%) and Vermont (20.5%), but we have to be careful using this data - those states always have a high vacancy rate on April 1st because of all the vacation homes. So we need to compare to previous Census data to try to estimate the excess number of vacant houses.

In future releases, the Census Bureau will release more housing data: "Later reports from the 2010 Census will show the vacancy status for all vacant housing units and will also show whether occupied units were owned or rented." That data will help estimate the number of excess vacant housing units.

The table below is a summary (and raised questions about the data). It will be a few years before analysis is published on the accuracy of the Census housing data, but Census 2010 was probably more complete than the earlier data (that has been the trend).

Census	1-Apr-90	1-Apr-00	1-Apr-10
Housing Stock, as reported
Occupied	91,947,410	105,480,101	116,716,292
Vacant	10,316,268	10,424,540	14,988,438
Total	102,263,678	115,904,641	131,704,730
Housing Stock, Adjusted (1)
Occupied	92,434,731	105,828,185	116,716,292
Vacant	10,802,164	10,775,847	14,988,438
Total	103,245,409	116,586,458	131,704,730
Increase (adjusted)		13,341,049	15,118,272
Units Completed
1 to 4 units		11,122,000	12,700,500
5+ Units		2,237,400	2,723,600
Manufactured Homes		2,854,100	1,313,700
Total Added		16,213,500	16,737,800
Demolitions per year (calculated)		287,245	161,953
(1) http://www.census.gov/pred/www/rpts/O.3.PDF

Using the adjusted Census data for 1990 and 2000, we can compare the increase in housing units to the number of housing units completed. The difference is an estimate of demolitions (or otherwise destroyed units).

We can compare the increase from 2000 to 2010 of 15.1 million total units to the 16.7 million total completions (assuming no adjustment to 2010). That suggests about 167 thousand demolitions per year. But the Census probably undercounted some - so the demolitions would even be less. That is lower than most estimates of demolitions. Oh well ... this is a start.

For some fun from the Census Bureau:

The U.S. mean center of population, as of April 1, 2010, is near Plato, Mo., an incorporated village in Texas County. The U.S. Census Bureau calculated this point as the place where an imaginary, flat, weightless and rigid map of the United States would balance perfectly if all 308,745,538 residents counted in the 2010 Census were of identical weight.

Ever since Chestertown, Md., was determined to be the center of population after the first census was conducted in 1790, the center of population has told the story of America, illustrating how we’ve grown as a nation. It follows a trail across the country ─ across Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana and Missouri ─ that reflects our history of settling the frontier, manifest destiny, waves of immigration and regional migration.

Note: This is 23.4 miles from Edgar Springs, Mo., the 2000 mean center of population. Here is the data and maps on Centers of Population for the 2010 Census

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2011 02:42:00 PM

From the Federal Reserve:

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will hold press briefings four times per year to present the Federal Open Market Committee's current economic projections and to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions.

In 2011, the Chairman's press briefings will be held at 2:15 p.m. following FOMC decisions scheduled on April 27, June 22 and November 2. The briefings will be broadcast live on the Federal Reserve's website. For these meetings, the FOMC statement is expected to be released at around 12:30 p.m., one hour and forty-five minutes earlier than for other FOMC meetings.

The introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication. The Federal Reserve will continue to review its communications practices in the interest of ensuring accountability and increasing public understanding.

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2011 12:40:00 PM

From Freddie Mac Bulletin: Eliminating the option to foreclose in the name of Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems Inc. (MERS) (ht Soylent Green is People)

We have updated the Guide to eliminate the option for the foreclosure counsel or trustee to conduct a foreclosure in the name of MERS. Effective for Mortgages registered with MERS that are referred to foreclosure on or after April 1, 2011, Servicers must prepare an assignment of the Security Instrument from MERS to the Servicer and instruct the foreclosure counsel or trustee to foreclose in the Servicer’s name and take title in Freddie Mac's name.

As required in Section 66.17, Foreclosing in the Servicer’s Name, Servicers must record the prepared assignment where required by State law. State mandated recording fees are not reimbursable by Freddie Mac, are not considered part of the Freddie Mac allowable attorney fees and must not be billed to the Borrower.

Servicers should refer to updated Section 66.17 and Section 66.54, Vesting the Title and Avoiding Transfer Taxes, for additional information.

This makes sense and avoids some legal battles. Some day all the MERS issues will be behind us (I don't think there are any systemic risks).

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2011 10:39:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Portugal Said to Need as Much as $99 Billion in Bailout

A bailout for Portugal may total as much as 70 billion euros ($99 billion), said two European officials with direct knowledge of the matter.

A financial lifeline would be between 50 billion euros and 70 billion euros ... Portugal has not yet asked for a bailout.

It appears a bailout is inevitable and imminent. Here are the 2 year (6.7%), 5 year (8.2%) and 10 year (7.7%) yields on Portuguese government debt - all at new highs.

Watch Ireland too - the Irish ten year yield is near 10%.

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2011 08:39:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending March 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 382,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of 386,750.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims for the last 40 years. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 1,500 to 385,250.

This is the 4th consecutive week with the 4-week average below the 400,000 level, and although there is nothing magical about 400,000, this is a small positive step for the labor market.