by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2011 08:57:00 AM

The following is a reminder that there is a special eurozone debt crisis summit scheduled for Friday, March 11th.

From MarketWatch: Moody’s cuts Greece rating, stokes debt fears

Moody’s Investors Service cut Greece’s sovereign-debt rating Monday by three notches to B1 ... The ratings agency, which also assigned a negative outlook to Greece’s ratings, highlighted the government’s difficulties with revenue collection and noted a risk that Athens might not meet the criteria for continued support from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union after 2013.

That could result in a voluntary restructuring of existing debt, the ratings agency said.

The Ten Year yield for Greece is at 12.4%.

Here are the Ten Year yields for Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Belgium. All moving up some today ...

On U.S. economy:
• Summary for last week ending March 4th
• Schedule for Week of March 6th

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2011 10:38:00 PM

I always pay close attention to Fed stories from Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Unlikely to Remove Its Economic Stimulus Just Yet

Hilsenrath makes several key points:
• QE2 will probably end in June: "the securities purchase program ... is likely to end in June as scheduled."

• Tapering off of purchases unlikely: "Though the idea of tapering has received some attention on Wall Street of late, officials seem unlikely to want to follow that course this time ..."

• Fed will probably take a wait and see approach after June to see "how the economy performs later in the year without [QE2]."

• The "hawks" aren't pushing hard to finish early.

As I noted in When will the Fed raise rates?, this suggests a timeline for the earliest Fed funds rate increase:
• End of QE2 in June.
• End of reinvestment 0 to 2 months later.
• Drop extended period language a couple months later
• Raise rates in early 2012.

That is probably the earliest the Fed will raise rates - and it could be later in 2012 or even later ...

Earlier:
• Summary for last week ending March 4th
• Schedule for Week of March 6th

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2011 08:32:00 PM

• Libya: Looking like a prolonged civil war ...

From the NY Times: Rebel Advance in Libya Set Back by Heavy Assault

From al Jazeera: Libya Live Blog - March 7

• WTI oil prices at $105.03

• From Brent Hunsberger at The Oregonian: Hundreds of Oregon foreclosure sales stopped after judges' rulings (ht azurite)

Earlier:
• Summary for last week ending March 4th
• Schedule for Week of March 6th

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2011 02:17:00 PM

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release their February survey on Tuesday, but here is a pre-release of the employment data ... from NFIB: Positive Trend in Job Growth

“February brought us good news on the jobs front: The trend for job creation is, at last, decidedly positive. While job creation reports have been improving for almost two years, they have consistently been negative or near zero, indicating that employment at the nation’s small firms was still contracting, albeit at slower and slower rates. But this month’s reading confirms that we are moving in the right direction. Equally important, small firms’ plans to hire have been consistently positive for the past five consecutive months.

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy. With the high percentage of real estate (including small construction companies), small businesses will be slow to recover this cycle.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the net hiring plans for the next three months.

Hiring plans increased slightly in February. According to NFIB: “The percent of owners reporting hard-to-fill job openings rose two points to 15 percent, indicating that a reduction in the unemployment rate is likely within the next few months. Plans to create jobs strengthened; up two points to a net 5 percent of all firms. While this is still low, it is 15 points better than the recession low reading of negative 10 percent, reached in March 2009."

Baby steps in the right direction.

Earlier:
• Summary for last week ending March 4th
• Schedule for Week of March 6th

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2011 08:33:00 AM

Note: Here is the Summary for last week ending March 4th

The key economic reports this week will be the trade balance report on Thursday and February retail sales on Friday.

----- Monday, March 7th -----
8:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks at the NABE conference in Arlington, VA. "A View from the Fed"

9:15 AM: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks at the Institute of International Bankers conference in D.C. "Challenges and Opportunities Facing the U.S. and Global Economy and Financial Markets"

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for January. The consensus is for a $3.4 billion increase in consumer credit. Consumer credit has increased for three straight months after declining sharply during and after the recession.

----- Tuesday, March 8th -----
7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. This index has been showing some increases in optimism.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 94.1 in January from 92.6 in December.

Although still fairly low, this is the highest level for the index since December 2007.

10:00 AM: Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Board nominee and Nobel laureate Peter Diamond

----- Wednesday, March 9th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through the first few months of 2011.

9:00 AM ET: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ This is the diesel fuel index for February (a measure of transportation).

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for January. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in inventories.

----- Thursday, March 10th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of initial claims had been trending down over the last few months. The consensus is for a slight increase to 378,000 from 368,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for January from the Census Bureau.

This shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through December 2010.

Imports had been mostly flat since May, but increased again in December. Exports have started increasing again after the mid-year slowdown.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be around $41.5 billion, up from $40.6 billion in December.

10:00 AM Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for January 2010

12:00 PM: Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, March 11th -----
8:30 AM: Retail Sales for February.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 13.7% from the bottom, and now 0.4% above the pre-recession peak.

The consensus is for retail sales to rise sharply in February, a 1.0% increase from January. (0.7% increase ex-auto).

9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment preliminary for March. The consensus is for a slight decrease to 76.5 from 77.5 in February.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for January. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in inventories.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS. This report has been showing a general increase in job openings, but very little turnover in the labor market.

Best Wishes to All!