by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2011 03:15:00 PM

From the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC): Equity Capital Eyes The Apartment Sector Says NMHC Quarterly Market Conditions Survey

For the second consecutive quarter, 60% of respondents said markets were tighter (lower vacancies and/or higher rents) than three months ago. The Market Tightness Index recorded its second-highest January reading on record at 78.
...
"Rising apartment demand reflects a drop in demand for homeownership in today's marketplace," said NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky. "This growing demand against the backdrop of the lowest apartment starts in 40 years—barely enough to offset the units lost to demolition and obsolescence—will result in further tightening in the apartment sector in the near term."

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index.

The index has indicated tighter market conditions for the last four quarters. A reading above 50 suggests the vacancy rate is falling.

This fits with the recent Reis data showing apartment vacancy rates fell in Q4 2010 to 6.6%, down from 7.1% in Q3 2010, and 8% in the Q4 2009.

Also this data is a survey of large apartment owners only. The data released last week from the Census Bureau showed the rental vacancy rate also declined for all rental units too. The Census Bureau rental vacancy rate declined sharply to 9.4% in Q4 2010, from 10.3% in Q3 2010.

A final note: This index helped me call the bottom for effective rates (and the top for vacancy rate) last year. Based on limited historical data, this index appears to lead reported apartment rents by about 6 months to 1 year.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2011 11:21:00 AM

Commentary this week:
• Monday: QE2 Speculation and Summary
• Tuesday: Economic Outlook and Daily Summary
• Wednesday: Daily Color: D-List Data
• Thursday: Employment Situation: A Lighter Shade of Gray
• Friday: Daily Color: Two Employment Surveys, Different Results

Click on graph for larger image.

A repeat from yesterday ...

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - aligned at maximum job losses.

In terms of lost payroll jobs, the 2007 recession is by far the worst since WWII, and the "recovery" for payroll jobs is one of the slowest.

Here are the employment posts from yesterday (with graphs):
• January Employment Report: 36,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary and Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Diffusion Indexes
• Employment Graph Gallery

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2011 08:29:00 AM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Feb 4, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Mergers, both unassisted and FDIC- assisted, contributed to a slight reduction in the number of institutions on the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week. There were five removals and two additions, which leaves the list with 946 institutions with assets of $411.1 compared with 948 institutions with $410.9 billion last week.

The removals include the three failures this week -- American Trust Bank, Roswell, GA ($249 million); North Georgia Bank, Watkinsville, GA ($166 million); and Community First Bank - Chicago, Chicago, IL ($57 million).

Since the on-set of this banking crisis, there have been 55 failures in the state of Georgia that have cost the FDIC approximately $8.06 billion or 33 percent of $24.4 billion of failed assets.

The other removals were unassisted acquisitions of Professional Business Bank, Pasadena, CA ($281 million) by California General Bank, which re-named itself Professional Business Bank; and Midwest Community Bank, Plainville, KS ($99 million) by The Wilson State Bank.

The additions were First Georgia Banking Company, Franklin, GA ($802 million) and Atlantic Bank and Trust, Charleston, SC ($268 million). Hat tip to reader Bill for noting the action against First Georgia Banking Company while perusing its 10-K filing. In an oddly worded statement, First Georgia Banking Company stated it had entered into a "Stipulation and Consent Order" with the Georgia State Banking Department in August 2010 that "was acknowledged by the FDIC." However, the action is not available through the FDIC enforcement action search engine. Similarly, the action against North Georgia Bank, which failed this week, was never available on the FDIC website. Perhaps these actions were like being on "double secret probation" with the FDIC.

by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2011 09:20:00 PM

Here are the earlier employment posts (with graphs):
• January Employment Report: 36,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary and Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Daily Color: Two Employment Surveys, Different Results
• Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Diffusion Indexes
• Employment Graph Gallery

Furious Winter
Cold hard cash assets frozen
Till White Knight appears.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Northbrook Bank and Trust Company, Northbrook, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of Community First Bank – Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

As of December 31, 2010, Community First Bank – Chicago had approximately $51.1 million in total assets and $49.5 million in total deposits.... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $11.7 million.

by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2011 06:30:00 PM

Here are the earlier employment posts (with graphs):
• January Employment Report: 36,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary and Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Daily Color: Two Employment Surveys, Different Results
• Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Diffusion Indexes
• Employment Graph Gallery

Note: I'm going to group bank failures (for fewer posts).

Men In Black arrive.
No UFO's in Roswell
"Take me to your bank"
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Renasant Bank, Tupelo, Mississippi, Assumes All of the Deposits of American Trust Bank, Roswell, Georgia

As of December 31, 2010, American Trust Bank had approximately $238.2 million in total assets and $222.2 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $71.5 million.

Unlucky thirteen.
Another Georgia failure.
Assimilated.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: BankSouth, Greensboro, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of North Georgia Bank, Watkinsville, Georgia

As of December 31, 2010, North Georgia Bank had approximately $153.2 million in total assets and $139.7 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $35.2 million.