by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2010 11:00:00 AM

From MarketWatch: General Motors U.S. June sales rise 10.7%.

General Motors Co. said Thursday that June U.S. sales rose 10.7% to 195,380 vehicles from 176,571 in the year-ago period.

This seems very weak considering GM was in bankruptcy last June.

This is based on an easy comparison in several ways: in June 2009 U.S. light vehicle sales fell almost 30% to 9.7 million (SAAR) from 13.8 million (SAAR) in June 2008. The sharp decline last year was due to the financial crisis, the recession, and of course the Chrysler and GM bankruptcy filings (Chrysler filed for bankruptcy at the end of April, 2009 and GM filed for bankruptcy on June 1, 2009).

I'll add reports from the other major auto companies as updates to this post.

Update 1: From MarketWatch: Ford total sales rise 13.3% to 175,895 units

Update 2: From MarketWatch: Chrysler U.S. June sales jump 35% to 92,482 units

Update 3: From MarketWatch: Toyota U.S. June sales rise 6.8% to 140,604 units

NOTE: Once all the reports are released, I'll post a graph of the estimated total June sales (SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate) - usually around 4 PM ET. Most estimates are for a decrease to 11.4 million in June from the 11.6 million SAAR in May.

by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2010 10:00:00 AM

A two-in-one post ...

PMI at 56.2% in June down from 59.7% in May.

From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the 11th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 14th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector continued to grow during June; however, the rate of growth as indicated by the PMI slowed when compared to May. The lower reading for the PMI came from a slowing in the New Orders and Production Indexes. We are now 11 months into the manufacturing recovery, and given the robust nature of recent growth, it is not surprising that we would see a slower rate of growth at this time. The sector appears to be solidly entrenched in the recovery. Comments from the respondents remain generally positive, but expectations have been that the second half of the year will not be as strong in terms of the rate of growth, and June appears to validate that forecast."
...
ISM's New Orders Index registered 58.5 percent in June, which is a decrease of 7.2 percentage points when compared to the 65.7 percent reported in May.
...
ISM's Employment Index registered 57.8 percent in June, which is 2 percentage points lower than the 59.8 percent reported in May.
emphasis added

And from the NAR: Pending Home Sales Drop as Expected

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, dropped 30.0 percent to 77.6 based on contracts signed in May from a reading of 110.9 in April ... NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “The sharp decline in contract signings in May is a natural result with similar low levels of sales activity anticipated in June.”

Both the ISM index and pending home sales were below consensus.

by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2010 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending June 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 472,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 459,000. The 4-week moving average was 466,500, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 463,250.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 19 was 4,616,000, an increase of 43,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,573,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 3,250 to 466,500.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average.

Initial weekly claims have been at about the same level since December 2009. Historically the current level of 472,000, and 4-week average of 466,500, would suggest ongoing weakness in the labor market.

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2010 09:55:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Fannie Mae reported today that the rate of serious delinquencies - at least 90 days behind - for conventional loans in its single-family guarantee business decreased to 5.30% in April, down from 5.47% in March - and up from 3.42% in April 2009.

"Includes seriously delinquent conventional single-family loans as a percent of the total number of conventional single-family loans."

This is similar to the report from Freddie Mac (although Fannie Mae releases data one month later). Just as for Freddie Mac, some of the earlier rapid increase was probably because of foreclosure moratoriums, and distortions from modification programs because loans in trial mods were considered delinquent until the modifications were made permanent.

More modifications have become permanent (and no longer counted as delinquent) and Fannie Mae is foreclosing again (they have a record number of REOs) - so there has been a slight decline in the delinquency rate.

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2010 05:47:00 PM

CR Note: How the NAR calculates existing home inventory is a bit of a mystery. Housing economist Tom Lawler has been tracking inventory several different ways. The following post is from Tom Lawler:

This morning there were 3,973,439 residential listings on realtor.com, up 1.6% from late May and up 0.3% from a year ago. Listings in California, which declined sharply during 2009, were up 2.3% on the month and up 7.4% from a year ago. States with especially large monthly increases in listings including Washington (14.5%, after an 8.4% drop in May – Washington data are whacky!), Alaska (5.1%), Maine (4.9%), and Colorado (4.3%). Florida listings were up 0.3% on the month but down 9.5% from a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

I’m not sure how often realtor.com listings by states are “refreshed,” or whether the updates are identical across states. However, the realtor.com data appear to “synch up” better to reports from various MLS than do the monthly National Association of Realtor data – which often displays monthly swings completely out of whack with the various “inventory trackers” that I and others follow. The NAR wasn’t willing to give me details of its methodology, but it apparently uses the sample data from various realtor associations/boards/MLS, and it may estimate the national totals with gross-ups based on “months’ supply.” Whatever the case, the monthly NAR numbers appear to have “spurious volatility” unrelated to actual swings in listings.

CR Note: This seems to suggest an increase in inventory in June. Using Realtor.com isn't perfect, but it is a consistent and transparent method.