by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2010 09:07:00 AM

NY Times editorial: The Transatlantic Crisis: Europe’s Endangered Banks

... Several [European countries] have weak governments that may not be able to carry through the prescribed fixes. Even if they do, the budget cuts are likely to make them even weaker.
...
This is a recipe for economic stagnation. It also may not avert a debt rescheduling by some of the weaker European countries, which would force European banks to take a cut on their holdings. Sitting on slim cushions of capital reserves, European banks are in no shape for a sharp drop in the value of their assets.

It would be best to recognize that debt restructuring is inevitable.
...
American banks ended 2009 with $1.2 trillion worth of total European debt. ... It would be foolhardy to assume this problem is far away.

From The Times: Spain races to avert banking crisis as euro faces slide

One of Spain’s biggest banks was this weekend negotiating a merger with five smaller rivals as part of a desperate government effort to restore confidence in the faltering economy, which threatens to drag down the rest of the eurozone.

Caja Madrid, the country’s second-largest savings bank, opened talks in the hope of beating the June 30 deadline to tap a €99 billion (£84 billion) government bank rescue fund.

And also from The Times: Greece urged to give up euro

THE Greek government has been advised by [private] British economists to leave the euro and default on its €300 billion (£255 billion) debt to save its economy.

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2010 09:41:00 PM

I haven't updated this graph for some time ...

There have been 246 bank failures in this cycle (starting in 2007):

FDIC Bank Failures by Year
2007	3
2008	25
2009	140
2010	78
Total	246

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows bank failures by week in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

The 140 bank failures last year was the highest total since 1992 (181 bank failures).

As the previous post noted, banks are being added to the unofficial problem bank list much faster than they are being removed ... and it looks like there will be something close to 200 failures this year. That is more than in 1992, but probably less than the 271 in 1991. Bank failures peaked at 534 in 1989 during the S&L crisis.

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2010 03:52:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 28, 2010.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List underwent major changes this week from closings and with the FDIC releasing its enforcement actions for April 2010. The list includes 762 institutions with aggregate assets of $369.2 billion, up from 737 institutions and assets of $363.5 billion last week.

There were 31 additions this week. Notable additions include Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Chillicothe, MO ($1.1 billion); Park Cities Bank, Dallas, TX ($1.0 billion); and Magyar Bank, New Brunswick, NJ ($550 million Ticker: MGYR).

Removals include the five failures this week -- Bank of Florida - Southeast, Bank of Florida - Southwest, Bank of Florida - Tampa Bay, Granite Community Bank, NA, and Sun West Bank; and action termination against Indiana Community Bank. Other changes for banks already on the list include Prompt Corrective Action orders issued against two Seattle-based institutions -- First Sound Bank and Washington First International Bank.

CR note: The FDIC reported there were 775 institutions with assets of $431 billion on the official problem bank list at the end of Q1. There are some timing issues, but the overall number of institutions on the unofficial list is very close to the official list. However the assets on the unofficial list are far short of the assets on the official list. This suggests the possibility that a large regional bank may be on the official problem bank list.

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2010 02:37:00 PM

I know everyone want to discusss this in the comments ...

Here is the live feed from BP.

Here is a discussion of the "top kill" and "junk shot" from the Oil Drum.

I wonder if there is a chemical solution, like a two-part glue. Maybe they could inject a resin down one tube and an accelerator down another tube (both liquids) - and gunk up the Blowout preventer (a "gunk shot"). It would have to be a very fast reaction ...

Pretty grim ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2010 10:45:00 AM

Just for fun ... in 1926, economist George Taylor suggested the "Hemline Index"; he observed that hemlines moved with stock prices.

And from the NY Times: A Long, Lean Backlash to the Mini. Here is the hot new look:

Does that mean stocks are at a bottom, or that stocks are about to crash?