by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2010 10:45:00 AM

Just for fun ... in 1926, economist George Taylor suggested the "Hemline Index"; he observed that hemlines moved with stock prices.

And from the NY Times: A Long, Lean Backlash to the Mini. Here is the hot new look:

Does that mean stocks are at a bottom, or that stocks are about to crash?

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2010 08:49:00 AM

From the American Trucking Association: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Increased 0.9 Percent in April

The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased for the sixth time in the last seven months, gaining another 0.9 percent in April. This followed a 0.4 percent increase in March. The latest improvement put the SA index at 110.2 (2000=100), which is the highest level since September 2008. Over the last seven months, the tonnage index grew a total of 6.5 percent.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 111.3 in April, down 4.4 percent from the previous month.

Compared with April 2009, SA tonnage surged 9.4 percent, which was the fifth consecutive year-over-year gain and the largest increase since January 2005. Year-to-date, tonnage is up 6 percent compared with the same period in 2009.
...
“Tonnage is being boosted by robust manufacturing output and stronger retail sales.” [ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said] “For most fleets, freight volumes feel better than reported tonnage because the supply situation, particularly in the truckload sector, is turning quickly.”

This is the opposite of the report from Ceridian-UCLA that showed diesel fuel consumption down in April, although it might be a difference in the seasonal adjustment factors (NSA this report showed a 4.4% decline). Rail traffic was also up in April.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 11:55:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Spain Loses AAA Rating at Fitch as Europe Battles Debt Crisis

The euro declined to 1.2274 dollars on the news. The TED spread increased to 38.11. This is still fairly low, but has been increasing ... Note: This is the difference between the interbank rate for three month loans and the three month Treasury and is considered a measure of credit stress. The peak was 463 on Oct 10th and a normal spread is below 50 bps.

The BEA reported April Personal Income up 0.4%, Spending up slightly.

The Institute for Supply Management – Chicago reported the "CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER eased" and "EMPLOYMENT slipped below neutral". New orders were softer, and it appears the inventory adjustment is over.

The National Restaurant Association index decreased slightly, but still showed some expansion. Same store sales and customer traffic both showed declines in April.

And a few interesting articles:

From Bloomberg: New Home Sales Set to Plunge in Former Bubble Markets

From David Bracken at the Newobserver.com: Sales stop for Raleigh condo project

From the NY Times: Placing the Blame as Students Are Buried in Debt

And from the NY Times: BP Engineers Making Little Headway on Leaking Well

Best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 09:09:00 PM

Fiery twilight
Crepuscular Sun West Bank
Radiant, now dark
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: City National Bank, Los Angeles, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Sun West Bank, Las Vegas, Nevada

Sun West Bank, Las Vegas, Nevada, was closed today by the Nevada Financial Institutions Division, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of March 31, 2010, Sun West Bank had approximately $360.7 million in total assets and $353.9 million in total deposits....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $96.7 million. ... Sun West Bank is the 78th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Nevada. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Carson River Community Bank, Carson City, on February 26, 2010.

That makes five today ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 08:13:00 PM

Sisyphean task
Reinflating Granite Bank
Too much crushing debt.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC:

Granite Community Bank, N.A., Granite Bay, California, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of March 31, 2010, Granite Community Bank, N.A. had approximately $102.9 million in total assets and $94.2 million in total deposits....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $17.3 million. ... Granite Community Bank, N.A. is the 77th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the sixth in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was 1st Pacific Bank of California, San Diego, on May 7, 2010.

Financed too many granite countertops?