by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2010 07:52:00 PM

From Stephen Castle at the NY Times: E.U. Plans Peer Review for Member States' Budgets

[T]he European Commission on Wednesday outlined ambitious proposals to give countries that use the euro a say over each other’s budget plans.
...
“Member states should have the courage to say whether they want an economic union because, if they don’t want that, it is better to forget monetary union altogether,” [European Commission president, José Manuel Barroso] said at a press conference in Brussels.

Among the ideas announced Wednesday was a plan to make the huge safety net for the euro that was decided on over the weekend a permanent crisis-resolution mechanism.

From the EU: Mastering economic interdependence: Commission proposes reinforced economic governance in the EU

I'm not sure how this will go over.

Meanwhile in Spain from the Financial Times: Tough new Spanish austerity measures

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s prime minister ... announced a surprise 5 per cent cut in civil service pay to accelerate cuts to the budget deficit.
...
The measures should help bring the deficit down from 11.2 per cent of GDP in 2009 to just over 6 per cent in 2011.
excerpt with permission

The EU €750 billion announced on Sunday just buys time. As part of that agreement, both Portugal and Spain agreed to reduce their deficits.

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2010 03:55:00 PM

A couple housing stories ... the first provides analysis from Barclays analysts that suggests distressed sales will stay elevated for some time. The second is from Diana Olick about house prices and the tax credit.

From Jon Prior at HousingWire: Shadow Inventory To Peak in Summer of 2010: Barclays

Barclays defines the shadow inventory of foreclosures as loans in 90-plus day delinquency or already in the foreclosure process. ...

The shadow inventory should reach its height in the summer in 2010 before falling gradually as the market absorbs 130,000 distressed properties per month, according to the report. Over the next three years, analysts forecast 4.7m distressed sales with 1.6m in 2010, another 1.6m in 2011 and 1.5m in 2012.

From Diana Olick at CNBC: Home Buyer Tax Credit Takes its Toll

From one of our own CNBC producers, Andrea Mantia:

"I've been househunting for a few months now...we totally got caught up in the "tax credit frenzy"....thank God we took a deep breath and relaxed...EVERY SINGLE HOME we had our eye on dropped in price this week...and this is in Bergen Co (NJ) where prices weren't budging!"

Anybody surprised that asking prices have adjusted down?

And on the stock market:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from Doug Short: "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2010 01:00:00 PM

This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index^TM

Press Release: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ Drops 0.3 Percent in April

With the release of April’s figures, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management is showing flat, overall performance during the first four months of 2010. The PCI in April fell 0.3 percent, suggesting the economic recovery may have stalled, although an uptick in consumer spending could continue to drive a slow but steady recovery.
...
While the economy continues to climb year-over-year, the PCI indicates that expectations in the market for a robust recovery may be too optimistic. ...

“The latest PCI numbers are disappointing and cast considerable doubt on the strength of the recovery and the strength of GDP numbers for 2010,” said Ed Leamer, the PCI’s chief economist.
...
The PCI is based on an analysis of real-time diesel fuel consumption data ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the index since January 1999.

Note: This index appears to lead Industrial Production (IP), but there is a significant amount of monthly noise. This is a new index and might be interesting to follow along with the Trucking and Railroad data.

Here is a video of Leamer's comments on the report.

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2010 10:54:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads: Rail Time Indicators. The AAR reports traffic in April 2010 was up 15.8% compared to April 2009 - although traffic was still 11.5% lower than in April 2008.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows U.S. average weekly rail carloads. Traffic increased in all 19 major commodity categories YoY.

From AAR:

• U.S. freight railroads originated 1,179,029 carloads in April 2010, up 15.8% from April 2009 on a nonseasonally adjusted basis. That could very well be the highest year-over-year percentage increase for any month ever. It’s definitely the highest since at least January 1989, which is the first month for which we have comparable data.

• Part of the big percentage gain in April 2010 reflects real traffic growth, but some of it also reflects the fact that April 2009 was a lousy month for U.S. freight railroads (see chart). May 2009 was even worse, so we can probably expect a very large year-over-year percentage increase in May 2010 too.

• Is this good news? Absolutely. But some caution is in order. Total U.S. rail carloads in April 2010 were still down 11.5% from April 2008, including in 17 of the 19 commodity categories. Generally speaking, recent U.S. rail traffic gains are consistent with an economy that is recovering at a moderate but not breathtaking pace.
excerpts with permission

The graph above shows that rail traffic collapsed in November 2008, and now ten months into the recovery, traffic has only recovered half way. This is clearly not a "V-shaped" recovery - there is still a long way to go.

The second graph from the AAR report shows lumber rail traffic compared to U.S. housing starts.

From the AAR:

Happy days are not yet here again for homebuilders.

That says it all!

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2010 08:30:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports:

[T]otal March exports of $147.9 billion and imports of $188.3 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $40.4 billion, up from $39.4 billion in February, revised. March exports were $4.6 billion more than February exports of $143.3 billion. March imports were $5.6 billion more than February imports of $182.7 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through March 2010.

On a year-over-year basis, exports are up 20% and imports are up 24%. This is an easy comparison because of the collapse in trade at the end of 2008 and into early 2009.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through March.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Import oil prices increased slightly to $73.89 in March - and are up 89% from the low of February 2009 (at $39.22). Oil import volumes increased sharply in March pushing up the value of imports.

Both imports and exports have been increasing sharply, but are still below the pre-financial crisis levels. Once again China and oil are the major contributors to the trade deficit.