by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2010 09:49:00 PM

Notes: this data is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Loaded inbound traffic was up 2.6% compared to March 2009. (up 9.6% compared to last year using three month average). Inbound traffic was still down 9.2% vs. two years ago (Mar08).

Loaded outbound traffic was up 13.6% from March 2009. (+24.9% using three months average) Just as with imports, exports are still off from 2 years ago (off 8.0%).

Looking at the graph (red line), exports recovered in the first half of 2009, but then export traffic only increased gradually since last summer. Export traffic picked up again in March.

It is harder to tell about imports (blue line) because of the large seasonal swings. Usually there is a large dip in either February or March - depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year - and that didn't happen this year. The lack of a large seasonal dip might suggest a significant increase in imports too.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2010 06:30:00 PM

From Jim Puzzanghera at the LA Times: Regulators did little to halt reckless practices at WaMu

Federal banking examiners found serious problems at Washington Mutual Bank at least five years before its 2008 collapse, but their supervisors showed little concern ... During those five years, examiners constantly warned of "less than satisfactory" loan underwriting, the "horrible performance" of its subprime-backed mortgage securities and the failure of WaMu executives and federal regulatory supervisors to do much about it.

One examiner said he was derided by colleagues as "the housing 'bubble' boy" for his "gloom and doom" predictions for some risky loans, and another complained that critics of subprime loans were called "chicken little."
...
Former OTS Director John Reich, who served from 2005 to 2009, referred to WaMu Chief Executive Kerry Killinger as "my largest constituent" in a 2007 e-mail.

That attitude pervaded the upper levels of the agency ...

Once again the field examiners did their job, but their efforts were ridiculed. I was asked by a reporter a couple of years ago who was to blame for the housing bubble, and I said the list is long, but it starts with the regulators ...

This photo from 2003 shows two regulators: John Reich (then Vice Chairman of the FDIC and later at the OTS) and James Gilleran of the Office of Thrift Supervision (with the chainsaw) and representatives of three banker trade associations: James McLaughlin of the American Bankers Association, Harry Doherty of America's Community Bankers, and Ken Guenther of the Independent Community Bankers of America.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2010 03:55:00 PM

A few links ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

Henry Blodget at Business Insider has an update of the cyclically adjusted PE ratio (CAPE). (ht Mark)

Measured using our favorite valuation technique, Professor Shiller's cyclically adjusted PE analysis, the S&P 500 has a PE of 22X. The long-term average (1880-2010) is about 16X. The current level is actually close to the big bull market peaks of the past--with the exception of the gigantic one that peaked in 2000.

From the Financial Times: Greece takes key step towards rescue

Greece capitulated ... took an important step towards a bail-out from its eurozone partners and the International Monetary Fund as it formally sought “consultations” over a €30bn-plus ($40bn, £26bn) loan package to stave off default.

... Greece’s finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, said Athens wanted to discuss “a multi-year economic policy programme with the Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund”.
excerpt with permission

On Industrial Production from Spencer at Angry Bear (see graph):

Historically, recoveries have been proportional to the recessions -- severe recessions have strong recoveries and mild recessions have weak recoveries. So far the recovery in industrial production this cycle looks about average. But given the depth and severity of the recessions an average rebound is disappointing.

And Professor Hamilton has More on oil prices and the economic recovery

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2010 01:00:00 PM

The increase this month was driven by traffic of prospective buyers and current sales - and this was the last month that buyers can take advantage of the housing tax credit - so this increase was no surprise.

Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

The housing market index (HMI) was at 19 in April. This is an increase from 15 in March.

The record low was 8 set in January 2009. This is very low - and this is what I've expected - a long period of builder depression. The HMI has been in the 15 to 19 range since May 2009.

This second graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the April release for the HMI and the February data for starts (March starts will be released tomorrow).

This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move generally in the same direction - although there is plenty of noise month-to-month.

And right now they are moving sideways - at best.

Press release from the NAHB: (TBA)

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2010 12:06:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: Upscale segment tops occ. increases

Overall the industry’s occupancy increased 12.6 percent to 59.2 percent; ADR ended the week virtually flat with a 0.4-percent decrease to US$96.31; and RevPAR was up 12.1 percent to US$57.00.

“We saw strong RevPAR growth this week because of a favorable Easter comparison,” said Chad Church, industry research manager at STR.

The following graph shows the occupancy rate by week and the 52 week rolling average since 2000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Notes: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The graph shows the distinct seasonal pattern for the occupancy rate; higher in the summer because of leisure/vacation travel, and lower on certain holidays.

The occupancy rate was boosted by the Easter holiday, and even still the occupancy rate was below the average for this week of around 63% (usually without Easter). The 52 week average is moving up - and that is a good sign for hotels.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com