by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2010 12:13:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: NYC leads weekly occupancy rate gains

Overall, the U.S. industry’s occupancy ended the week with a 5.2-percent increase to 61.4 percent. Average daily rate dropped 1.9 percent to finish the week at US$98.30. Revenue per available room for the week was up 3.2 percent to US$60.39—the third consecutive week that RevPAR experience a year-over-year increase.

The following graph shows the occupancy rate by week since 2000, and the rolling 52 week average occupancy rate.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Note: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The graph shows the distinct seasonal pattern for the occupancy rate; higher in the summer because of leisure/vacation travel, and lower on certain holidays.

Although the occupancy rate is up 5.2% over the same week last year, the level is still well below normal - the average occupancy rate for this week is close to 65%, significantly above the current 61.4%.

The low than normal occupancy rate is still pushing down room rates (on a YoY basis) although revenue per available room (RevPAR) increased for the third straight week.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2010 10:04:00 AM

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is testifying before the House Committee on Financial Services: Federal Reserve's exit strategy

This is mostly a technical discussion, but the Q&A might be interesting.

Here is the CNBC feed.

Here is the C-Span Link (updated link)

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2010 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending March 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 442,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 456,000. The 4-week moving average was 453,750, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised average of 464,750.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 13 was 4,648,000, a decrease of 54,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,702,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 11,000 to 453,750.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The current level of 442,000 (and 4-week average of 453,750) is still high, and suggests continuing weakness in the jobs market. Note: There is no way to compare directly between weekly claims, and net payrolls jobs.

Note: by request, next week I'll post a graph as a percent of covered employment.

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2010 11:58:00 PM

From Sewell Chan at the NY Times: China Says It Will Not Adjust Policy on the Exchange Rate

After meeting with officials at the Treasury and Commerce Departments on Wednesday, China’s deputy commerce minister, Zhong Shan, told reporters, “The Chinese government will not succumb to foreign pressures to adjust our exchange rate."
...
“It is wrong for the United States to jump to the conclusion that China is manipulating currency from the sheer fact that China is enjoying a trade surplus,” Mr. Zhong told reporters in a meeting at the Chinese Embassy. “Besides, it’s wrong for the United States to press for the appreciation of the renminbi and threaten to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese experts. This is unacceptable to China.”

This is more posturing before the Treasury releases the worldwide currencies report on April 15th that might name China a "currency manipulator".

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2010 08:01:00 PM

From Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn: Homework Assignments for Monetary Policymakers

Kohn's assignments:
1) "One assignment is to evaluate the implications of the changing character of financial markets for the design of the liquidity tools the Federal Reserve has at its disposal when panic-driven runs on banks and other key financial intermediaries and markets threaten financial stability and the economy."

2) "In addition to providing liquidity on an unprecedented scale, we reduced our policy interest rate (the target for the rate on overnight loans between banks) effectively to zero, and then we continued to ease financial conditions and cushion the effect of the financial shock on the economy by making large-scale purchases of several types of securities. My second assignment involves improving our understanding of the effects of those purchases and the associated massive increase in bank reserves."

3) "Number three involves considering whether central banks should use their conventional monetary policy tool--adjusting the level of a short-term interest rate--to try to rein in asset prices that seem to be moving well away from sustainable values, in addition to seeking to achieve the macroeconomic objectives of full employment and price stability."

4) "The fourth and final assignment concerns whether central banks should adjust their inflation targets to reduce the odds of getting into a situation again where the policy interest rate reaches zero."

All four topics are interesting ... Kohn believes that the inflation target should be around 2%, and that the impact on rates from the MBS purchase program "comes mainly from the total amount we purchase relative to the total stock of debt outstanding", not the flow of purchases - suggesting little increase in mortgage rates when the Fed stops buying MBS in a week.