by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2010 10:02:00 AM

From Alana Semuels at the LA Times: More homeowners are opting for 'strategic defaults'

Joseph Shull, a 68-year-old marketing professor, said he's planning to walk away from the town house he bought in Moorpark in June 2006.

"I'm angry, and there are a lot of people like me who are angry," he said.

He purchased the home for $410,000 and spent $30,000 renovating. Now the house is worth around $225,000.

Shull admits he overpaid for his property. But he said it fell in value in part because of "regulatory mismanagement."

"The bank stabbed me, but at least I got in a pinprick back," he said. "This is the new economy. The old rules don't apply any more."

This article is similar to David Streitfeld's article in the NY Times last month: No Aid or Rebound in Sight, More Homeowners Just Walk Away

I'm not sure if walking away is becoming more common or if there is a bubble in walking away articles. However there are consequences to walking away - possible tax consequences and some loans are recourse (people walk away from the house, but not the debt!). Perhaps the HAFA short sale program would be a better alternative for many homeowners ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2010 08:03:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 1.7 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier. ...

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 67.3 percent of total applications from 67.2 percent the previous week. ...

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.91 percent from 5.01 percent, with points increasing to 1.30 from 0.82 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the lowest 30-year fixed-rate observed in the survey since mid-December of 2009, yet the effective rate was unchanged from last week due to the significant increase in points.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Even with mortgage rates below 5%, the 4 week average of the purchase index is still at the levels of 1997.

by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2010 12:43:00 AM

From Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, White House budget director Peter Orszag and Christina Romer, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers: Joint Statement. A few excerpts:

GDP growth. For GDP, the forecast projects moderate growth of 3.0 percent (on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) in 2010, followed by somewhat higher growth of 4.3 percent in both 2011 and 2012. Compared with the recoveries from other severe recessions, the projected growth is relatively modest, particularly in 2010. This reflects a combination of factors, including the limitations on monetary policy coming from the fact that interest rates cannot go below zero; the weakened state of households' and firms' balance sheets; the continuing caution of households and firms following the searing events of the past two years; and the weak condition of State and local government budgets.

Employment and unemployment. In terms of the labor market, the forecast projects average job growth of about 100,000 per month in 2010, about 200,000 per month in 2011, and about 250,000 per month in 2012. Typically following a recession, we see increases in productivity, temporary employment, and the length of the workweek before employment begins to recover. For the most part, developments in recent months have been following this pattern. Productivity growth has surged; temporary help employment has risen for 5 consecutive months; and the workweek has been generally rising. We expect to begin seeing job gains by sometime this spring.

Because of normal growth in the population and the fact that some workers are likely to reenter the labor force as the economy improves, it typically takes employment growth of somewhat over 100,000 per month to bring the unemployment rate down. Because we do not expect job growth substantially over 100,000 per month over the remainder of the year, we do not expect substantial further declines in unemployment this year. Indeed, the rate may rise slightly over the next few months as some workers return to the labor force, before beginning a steady downward trend. ...

As the pace of job creation picks up in 2011 and 2012, there is likely to be greater progress in reducing unemployment. Nonetheless, because of the severe toll the recession has taken on the labor market, the unemployment rate is likely to remain elevated for an extended period. The forecast projects that in the fourth quarter of 2011, the unemployment rate will be 8.9 percent, and that by the fourth quarter of 2012, it will be 7.9 percent.

Inflation. Because of the high levels of slack in the economy, we expect inflation to remain low and see little risk of substantial increases in inflation. At the same time, inflation expectations appear to be well anchored, and so we do not expect inflation to fall substantially further or turn into outright deflation. We project inflation (on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis, as measured by the GDP price index) of 1.0 percent in 2010, 1.4 percent in 2011, and 1.7 percent in 2012.

The unemployment rate at 8.9% in Q4 2011? And 7.9% in Q4 2012? Ouch ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2010 09:32:00 PM

This is just a reminder to take FOMC forecasts with a grain of salt.

First, the NBER determined that the great recession started in December 2007, and the FOMC met that same month - so we can see what they were thinking. The participant were aware that the incoming data was weakening, but their outlook was still for growth in 2008 and beyond ...

From the December 2007 FOMC Minutes:

In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, participants generally noted that incoming information pointed to a somewhat weaker outlook for spending than at the time of the October meeting. The decline in housing had steepened, and consumer outlays appeared to be softening more than anticipated, perhaps indicating some spillover from the housing correction to other components of spending. These developments, together with renewed strains in financial markets, suggested that growth in late 2007 and during 2008 was likely to be somewhat more sluggish than participants had indicated in their October projections. Still, looking further ahead, participants continued to expect that, aided by an easing in the stance of monetary policy, economic growth would gradually recover as weakness in the housing sector abated and financial conditions improved, allowing the economy to expand at about its trend rate in 2009.

And here are the October projections mentioned in the December minutes:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

In October 2007, FOMC participants were forecasting GDP in the 2% range in 2008 with a return to trend growth in 2009, and the unemployment rate rising to perhaps 5%. How did that work out?

Of course this is nothing new. Here are a few quotes from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan back in 1990 (bear in mind that the recession started in July, 1990):

“In the very near term there’s little evidence that I can see to suggest the economy is tilting over [into recession].” Greenspan, July 1990

“...those who argue that we are already in a recession I think are reasonably certain to be wrong.” Greenspan, August 1990

“... the economy has not yet slipped into recession.” Greenspan, October 1990

Of course I started marking my graphs with recession blue bars in January 2008 (I had luckily predicted the December start to the recession). Although my current view is for sluggish and choppy growth in 2010, there are still some downside risks - especially in the 2nd half of the year. Right now I think Q1 GDP growth will be sluggish, and the impact from the stimulus will fade over the year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2010 06:49:00 PM

The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® is breaking out monthly resales by equity sales (conventional resales), and distressed sales (Short sales and REO sales), and I'm following this series as an example to see mix changes in a distressed area. It will be especially interesting to track this after the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) starts on April 5th.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Here is the February data.

The Sacramento Association started breaking out REO sales in 2008, but they have only broken out short sales since June 2009. Almost 68% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales in February.

Note: This data is not seasonally adjusted, and the decline in sales from the end of last year is about normal.

The second graph shows the percent of REO, short sales and conventional sales. The percent of REOs has been increasing again, and the percent of short sales has declined slightly over the last couple of months. The percent of conventional sales peaked last November, and has declined to 32% in February.

Now that many HAMP trial modifications have been cancelled, I expect REO sales to increase. Also, I expect the percentage of short sales to be higher in 2010 than in 2009 - but probably not as high as foreclosures (it will be interesting to watch).

Also total sales in February were off 24.3% compared to February 2009; the ninth month in a row with declining YoY sales.

On financing, over 60 percent were either all cash (30.7%) or FHA loans (30.2%), suggesting most of the activity in distressed former bubble areas like Sacramento is first time home buyers using government-insured FHA loans, and investors paying cash.