by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 04:02:00 PM

REO: Real Estate Owned.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph (ht Tom Lawler) shows the REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and FHA through Q4 2009.

Even with all the delays in foreclosure, the REO inventory has increased sharply over the last two quarters, from 135,868 at the end of Q2 2009, to 153,007 in Q3 2009, and 172,357 at the end of Q4 2009.

Read more »

by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 01:53:00 PM

The ISM report provides some hints for the BLS report later this week, but it is important to remember that manufacturing employment is a small percentage of the overall work force.

From the ISM Manufacturing report on employment:

ISM's Employment Index registered 56.1 percent in February, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 53.3 percent reported in January. This is the third month of growth in manufacturing employment, and the highest reading since January 2005 (58.7 percent). An Employment Index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

The following graph shows the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index vs. the BLS reported monthly change in manufacturing employment (as a percent of manufacturing employment).

The graph includes data from 1948 through 2009. The earlier period (1948 - 1988) is in red, and the last 20 years is in blue.

Read more »

by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 10:30:00 AM

Private residential construction spending was up slightly in January, but is mostly moving sideways. I expect some growth in residential spending in 2010, but the increases will probably be sluggish until the large overhang of existing inventory is reduced.

Non-residential spending decreased in January, and is now at the lowest level since November 2006. The collapse in non-residential construction spending continues ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential construction spending increased slighltly in January, and nonresidential spending declined.

Read more »

by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 10:00:00 AM

PMI at 56.5% in February. Down from 58.4% in January, and up from 54.9% in December.

From the Institute for Supply Management: February 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the seventh consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 10th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the seventh consecutive month during February. While new orders and production were not as strong as they were in January, they still show significant month-over-month growth. Additionally, the Employment Index is very encouraging, as it is up 2.8 percentage points for the month to 56.1 percent. This is the third consecutive month of growth in the Employment Index. With these levels of activity, manufacturers are seemingly willing to hire where they have orders to support higher employment."

Read more »

by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, January 2010

Personal income increased $11.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $47.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $52.4 billion, or 0.5 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in December.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $367.2 billion in January, compared with $467.9 billion in December. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.3 percent in January, compared with 4.2 percent in December.

Read more »