by Calculated Risk on 1/28/2010 08:55:00 AM

From the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity moved lower in December

Led by declines in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to –0.61 in December, down from –0.39 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index moved lower, although both the production and income category and the sales, orders, and inventories category made positive contributions.
...
In contrast to the monthly index, the index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased slightly to –0.61 in December from –0.68 in November. December’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend; but the level of activity remained in a range historically consistent with the early stages of a recovery following a recession.

Click on table for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. According to the Chicago Fed:

"When the economy is coming out of a recession, the CFNAI-MA3 moves significantly into positive territory a few months after the official NBER date of the trough. Specifically, after the onset of a recession, when the index first crosses +0.20, the recession has ended according to the NBER business cycle measures. ... The critical question is: how early does the CFNAI-MA3 reveal this turning point? For four of the last five recessions, this happened within five months of the business cycle trough."

Although the CFNAI-MA3 improved slightly in December, the index is still negative. According to Chicago Fed, it is still early to call the official recession over.

by Calculated Risk on 1/28/2010 08:31:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Jan. 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 470,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 456,250, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average of 446,750.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 16 was 4,602,000, a decrease of 57,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,659,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 9,500 to 456,250.

The level of the 4-week average is still relatively high and suggests continued job losses in January.

by Calculated Risk on 1/27/2010 10:45:00 PM

NOTE: here is the New Home sales post from early this morning.

Now for a little fun ... this was last night (link here)

ALSO another great segment with Elizabeth Warren.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Obama Takes On Bankers
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

by Calculated Risk on 1/27/2010 08:36:00 PM

NOTE: here is the New Home sales post from early this morning.

Here is the WhiteHouse.gov live feed.

Here is the CNBC feed.

And a live feed from C-SPAN.

From the NY Times: Text: Obama’s State of the Union Address

by Calculated Risk on 1/27/2010 06:31:00 PM

From Pew Research: It's All About Jobs, Except When It's Not

Recent history shows that the public response to all presidents has been shaped to some degree by rising or falling unemployment. However, only Ronald Reagan's ratings in his first term have borne as close a connection as have Obama's to changes in the unemployment rate.

In fact, the relationship between unemployment and presidential approval varies from crystal clear to murky. Indeed since 1981 there have been a number of times when the ties between changes in joblessness rates and public judgments of the president have been weak or even indiscernible. But the link is strongest when unemployment rises precipitously. And it weakens, or even disappears entirely, when other concerns -- such as national security -- become dominant public issues.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and approval rating. The report also breaks it down by each President starting with Reagan.

Although other factors matter - like 9/11 or the Iran-Contra scandal - it mostly is "the unemployment rate, stupid!", especially when the unemployment rate is high.