by Calculated Risk on 1/14/2010 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Jan. 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 444,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 433,000. The 4-week moving average was 440,750, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised average of 449,750.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 2 was 4,596,000, a decrease of 211,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,807,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 9,000 to 440,750. This is the lowest level since August 2008.

The decline in the 4-week average is good news, although the level is still relatively high and suggests continued job losses, or at best, minimal job gains. The current level is still mostly above the level of the previous two "jobless" recoveries.

by Calculated Risk on 1/14/2010 12:43:00 AM

Press Release: RealtyTrac® year-end report shows record 2.8 million U.S. Properties with foreclosure filings in 2009 (ht Ann)

RealtyTrac® ... today released its Year-End 2009 Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows a total of 3,957,643 foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 2,824,674 U.S. properties in 2009, a 21 percent increase in total properties from 2008 and a 120 percent increase in total properties from 2007. The report also shows that 2.21 percent of all U.S. housing units (one in 45) received at least one foreclosure filing during the year, up from 1.84 percent in 2008, 1.03 percent in 2007 and 0.58 percent in 2006.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 349,519 U.S. properties in December, a 14 percent jump from the previous month and a 15 percent increase from December 2008 — when a similar monthly jump in foreclosure activity occurred. Despite the increase in December, foreclosure activity in the fourth quarter decreased 7 percent from the third quarter, although it was still up 18 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008.

“As bad as the 2009 numbers are, they probably would have been worse if not for legislative and industry-related delays in processing delinquent loans,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac
emphasis added

AP is reporting that RealtyTrac expects 3 to 3.5 million foreclosures in 2010.

There should be a pickup in foreclosure activity in February when the trial modifications end, however I think the themes in 2010 will be short sales (although NODs¹ count as filings) and higher priced foreclosures (but fewer in that range) - so the total filings in 2010 might be a little lower than RealtyTrac expects - but it will definitely be a busy year.

¹NODs: Notice of Default

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2010 10:04:00 PM

From Jon Stewart at the Daily Show (click here if embed doesn't load) (ht MrM)

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Clusterf#@k to the Poor House - Wall Street Bonuses
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2010 07:05:00 PM

From Bloomberg: California’s Credit Cut by S&P Amid Budget Deficit

California’s credit rating on $64 billion of general obligation bonds was cut by Standard & Poor’s today as [California] faces strains over a $20 billion budget deficit.

... the rating was lowered one level to A-, the seventh-highest investment grade. ... the company has a negative outlook on California debt, a sign its standing may decline further. ... S&P’s cut brings its rating on California closer to that of Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Moody’s rates the state Baa1 and Fitch at BBB.

More from Tom Petruno at the LA Times: California's debt rating cut to A-minus by S & P on budget woes

S&P worries that the state could face a cash crunch in March, before it receives the income tax payments due in April.

"There could be days in March when they go into a negative cash position," said Gabriel Petek, an S&P analyst in San Francisco.

Although Petek said he didn't believe California would be in jeopardy of missing any payments due on its debt, he said the government might again pay other obligations with IOUs, or the state might again require a short-term loan from Wall Street.

Possibly more IOU fun for California!

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2010 03:25:00 PM

From The Times: Britain's recession the steepest for 88 years

Britain's economy fell last year at the sharpest rate since 1921, despite hopes that it finally emerged from recession in the last three months of the year, according to a respected economics forecaster.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said today that its latest estimate showed that GDP rose by a modest 0.3 per cent in the final three months of 2009 compared with the third quarter.

That means that, for the year as a whole, the economy contracted by 4.8 per cent, a bigger fall than in any year of the Great Depression and the biggest contraction for 88 years.

Wow. The largest one year decline since 1921. Of course, during the Depression, there were a number of bad years in a row.

And from Statistischen Bundesamtes Deutschland: Germany experiencing serious recession in 2009 (ht Uwe)

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The German economy shrank in 2009 for the first time in six years. With –5.0%, the decline in the price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) was larger than ever since World War II. This is shown by first calculations of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The economic slump occurred mainly in the winter half-year of 2008/2009. Over the year, there were signs that the economic development would slightly stabilise on the new, lower level.