by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2010 03:48:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for December (red, light vehicle sales of 11.25 million SAAR from AutoData Corp).

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Obviously sales were boosted significantly by the "Cash-for-clunkers" program in August and some in July.

Excluding August, December was the strongest month since September 2008 (12.5 million SAAR) before sales fell off the final cliff.

The current level of sales are still very low, and are still below the lowest point for the '90/'91 recession (even with a larger population). On an annual basis, 2009 sales were probably just above the level of 1982 (10.357 million light vehicles).

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2010 02:23:00 PM

From the Guardian: Iceland president vetoes collapsed Icesave Bank's bill to UK

Iceland was plunged back into crisis after its president refused to sign a bill promising to repay more than €3.8bn (£3.4bn) to Britain and the Netherlands after the collapse of the country's Icesave bank in 2008.

Olafur Grimsson said he would force a referendum on the deeply unpopular legislation, causing a schism within the Icelandic government, with prime minister Johanna Sigurdardottir maintaining that the money would be repaid.

The escalating row threatens to further destablise the Icelandic economy, which went into meltdown after the failure of its three big banks, cutting off further aid from the International Monetary Fund and jeopardising efforts to join the European Union. The credit rating agency Fitch immediately downgraded Iceland, describing the latest political row as a "significant setback".

And from The Times: Iceland blocks repayment of £2.3bn to Britain

The British Government's already stretched finances came under further pressure today when Iceland's President vetoed the repayment of a £2.3 billion loan from the British taxpayer.

The cash was paid out by Britain in 2008 to compensate UK investors in Icesave, whose parent bank Landsbanki had collapsed.

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, handed over the money because he had promised that UK savers would not lose a penny to Landsbanki's bankruptcy.

Here is the actual Declaration: DECLARATION BY THE PRESIDENT OF ICELAND

... I have decided, according to Article 26 of the Constitution, to refer this new Act to the people. As stated in the Constitution, the new Act will nevertheless become law and the referendum will take place “as soon as possible.”

If the Act is approved in the referendum then naturally it will remain in force. If the referendum goes the other way, then the Act No. 96/2009, which the Althingi passed on 28 August, on the basis of the agreement with the Governments of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, will continue to be law, recognizing that the people of Iceland acknowledge their obligations. That Act was passed by the Althingi with theinvolvement of four of the parliamentary parties, as stated in the President’s declaration of 2 September.

Now the people have the power and the responsibility in their hands.

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2010 12:01:00 PM

From MarketWatch: Ford December U.S. sales up 32.8% to 184,655 units

From CNBC: Ford December Sales Jump 23.3%

Ford Press Release.

We need to see the details to see why the two reports are different, but this is based on an easy comparison; in December 2008 U.S. light vehicle sales fell sharply to 10.3 million (SAAR) following the financial crisis.

I'll add the other major reports as updates to this post.

UPDATE: From MarketWatch: Chrysler Dec. U.S. sales fall 3.7% to 86,523

UPDATE2: GM posts 6.1% decline in December U.S. sales

UPDATE3: Toyota Dec. U.S. auto sales up 32% to 187,860

Once all the reports are released, I'll post a graph of the estimated total December sales (SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate) - usually around 4 PM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2010 09:49:00 AM

From the NAR:

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 16.0 percent to 96.0 from an upwardly revised a 114.3 in October, but is 15.5 percent higher than November 2008 when it was 83.1.

On the extended and expanded tax credit:

[Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist] projects an additional 900,000 first-time buyers will qualify for the extended tax credit in addition to about 2 million who have already purchased; 1.5 million repeat buyers also are expected to benefit from the credit.

The extended and expanded tax credit was estimated to cost taxpayers $10.8 billion, but based on Mr. Yun's numbers, the tax credit will cost close to $17 billion (way over the initial estimate and just like the first tax credit, most buyers who receive the tax credit would have bought anyway).

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2010 08:40:00 AM

The WSJ reports: Personal Bankruptcy Filings Rising Fast

Overall, personal bankruptcy filings hit 1.41 million last year, up 32% from 2008, according to the National Bankruptcy Research Center ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the non-business bankruptcy filings by year.

Note: Data from Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, 2009 is estimated using media reports of data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center.

The annual rate is at about the same level as prior to when the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA) took effect. There were over 2 million bankruptcies filed in Calendar 2005 ahead of the law change.

"I can't see over the top of the files on my desk," said Cathleen Moran, a bankruptcy attorney at Moran Law Group in Mountain View, Calif., likening it to the rush of clients before the revised law went into effect.

Click on cartoon for larger image in new window. And a repeat: Cartoon from Eric G. Lewis, a freelance cartoonist living in Orange County, CA.