by Calculated Risk on 12/24/2009 10:09:00 AM

I linked to this in early November ...

From Greg Gordon at McClatchy Newspapers: How Goldman secretly bet on the U.S. housing crash

And now from the NY Times: Banks Bundled Bad Debt, Bet Against It and Won

by Calculated Risk on 12/24/2009 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Dec. 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 452,000, a decrease of 28,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 480,000. The 4-week moving average was 465,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 468,000.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 12 was 5,076,000, a decrease of 127,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,203,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 2,750 to 465,250. This is the lowest level since September 2008.

Although falling, the level of the 4 week average is still high, suggesting continuing job losses.

by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2009 10:02:00 PM

It was a busy day ...

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply in November . This is the new home sales report and graphs.

Ratio of Existing to New Home Sales at Record High

Residential Investment: Moving Sideways. This is a summary - with commentary and graphs - of most of the recent housing news: New home sales, housing starts, builder confidence, MBA purchase index, house prices and residential investment.

Also Treasury has extended the trial modification programs for HAMP until the end of January ...

And a non-housing related post:

November PCE and Saving Rate

Best to all

by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2009 06:43:00 PM

Update: the title just rhymes. HAMP hasn't "failed", but it is definitely struggling.

From Bloomberg: Homeowners Get More Time for Home-Loan Modifications

Mortgage servicers must give U.S. homeowners more time before kicking them out of the government’s loan-modification program ... Servicers can’t cancel an active Home Affordable trial modification scheduled to expire before Jan. 31 for any reason other than property eligibility requirements, according to a posting today on a government Web site. ...

“The Treasury Department believes that this further guidance and associated requirements will provide more certainty and transparency regarding the final determination of eligibility for borrowers in trial modifications,” Meg Reilly, a department spokeswoman, said in an e-mailed statement.

Extend and pretend. Fail and flail.

Here is the press release: Supplemental Directive 09-10 Implements Temporary Review Period for Active HAMP Trial Modifications (ht Effective Demand)

In order to provide servicers an opportunity to remain focused on converting eligible borrowers to permanent HAMP modifications, effective today and lasting through January 31, 2010, Treasury is implementing a review period for all active HAMP trial modifications scheduled to expire on or before January 31, 2010. Active HAMP trial modifications include trial modifications that have been submitted to the Treasury system of record that have not been cancelled by the servicer.

During this review period, servicers should continue to convert eligible borrowers in active HAMP trial modifications to permanent HAMP modifications as quickly as possible in accordance with existing program guidance. Servicers may not cancel an active HAMP trial modification during this period for any reason other than failure to meet the HAMP property eligibility requirements.

During this review period, servicers must confirm the status of borrowers in active HAMP trial modifications scheduled to expire on or before January 31, 2010 as either current or not current. Servicers must also confirm which, if any, documents are due from borrowers. Servicers must send written notification to borrowers as appropriate to inform them that they are at risk of losing eligibility for a permanent HAMP modification because the borrower has (i) failed to make all required trial period payments, (ii) failed to submit all required documentation, or (iii) failed both to make all required trial period payments and to submit all required documentation. The notice must provide the borrower with the opportunity to correct any error in the servicer’s records or submit any missing documents or payments within 30 days of the notice or through January 31, 2010, whichever is later. If a borrower provides evidence of the servicer’s error or corrects the deficiency within the timeframe provided, the servicer must consider the new information and determine if the borrower is eligible to continue in the HAMP modification process.

by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2009 05:07:00 PM

With record low occupancy rates (lowest since the Great Depression), it isn't surprising that some hotels are just closing down ...

From the Daily Herald: Arlington Heights Sheraton, Coco Key water park to close (ht Doug)

Barring a last-minute rescue, the 14-story [Sheraton Chicago Northwest] hotel at 3400 W. Euclid Ave., as well as the 65,000-square-foot indoor CoCo Key Water Resort, will cease operation at 5 p.m. Dec. 28.
...
CoCo Key opened in January, 2007, at a cost of $25 million.

As the largest hotel in Arlington Heights, the Sheraton's closure amounts to a huge loss for the village in terms of sales tax revenues and jobs.

And from the Chicago Tribune: Wyndham O'Hare hotel in Rosemont to close on Jan. 1

The Wyndham O'Hare at Rosemont will close a week from Friday ... The closing of the 12-floor, 466-room hotel comes at a time of declining revenue in the hotel industry and a struggling convention industry in Chicago. ...

The hotel defaulted on a loan at the same time that the bank holding the loan was ... seized in October ... The new owner of the loan, U.S. Bank, was not willing to advance the funds needed to keep the hotel open while in default ...

See-through hotels!