by Bill McBride on 12/23/2009 11:14:00 AM
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Here is more on the "distressing gap" between existing and new home sales.
The following graph shows the ratio of existing home sales divided by new home sales through November.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
This ratio has increased again to a new all time high.
The ratio of existing to new home sales increased at first because of the flood of distressed sales. This kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders couldn't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.
The recent increase in the ratio was partially due to the timing of the first time homebuyer tax credit (before the extension) - and partially because the tax credit spurred existing home sales more than new home sales.
On timing issues: New home sales are counted when the contract is signed, and usually before construction begins. So to close before the original Dec 1st deadline, the contract had to be signed early this Summer. Existing home sales are counted when escrow closes. And the recent surge in existing home sales was primarily due to buyers rushing to beat the tax credit.
November will probably remain the record high since existing home sales will decline sharply in December.
The second graph shows the same information with existing home sales (left axis), and new home sales (right axis). This is updated through the November data released this morning.
Although distressed sales will stay elevated for some time, I expect this gap to eventually close.
The ratio could decline because of an increase in new home sales, or a decrease in existing home sales - I expect a combination of both over time.