by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2009 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.3% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales are up 1.9% from November 2008.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

This shows that retail sales fell off a cliff in late 2008, and appear to have bottomed, but at a much lower level.

The red line shows retail sales ex-gasoline and shows there has been only a little increase in final demand.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales since 1993.

Retail sales increased by 1.9% on a YoY basis. The year-over-year comparisons are much easier now since retail sales collapsed in October 2008. Retail sales bottomed in December 2008.

Here is the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $352.1 billion, an increase of 1.3 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 1.9 percent (±0.5%) above November 2008. Total sales for the September through November 2009 period were down 2.1 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2009 percent change was revised from +1.4 percent (±0.5%) to +1.1 percent (±0.2%).

It appears retail sales have bottomed, and there might be a little pickup in final demand.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 10:30:00 PM

From David Cho at the WaPo: Joblessness plan revamps rules on bank bailouts (ht Mr. Ridgeback goes to Washington)

The Obama administration is developing a major initiative to tackle ... unemployment by getting federal bailout funds into the hands of small businesses.

The proposal involves spinning off a new entity from the Troubled Assets Relief Program that could give banks access to the government money without restrictions, such as limits on executive pay, as long as they use it to make loans to small businesses. ... No dollar figures have yet been attached to the new small-business lending effort, which is still in development, the sources said.

... [a "special-purpose vehicle"] would be financed by rescue funds and would lend to banks that provide small-business loans. In theory, this structure would free banks of the TARP conditions because they would be getting the money from a separate entity. They could also avoid being labeled as a TARP recipient.

Another SIV proposal, this time to lend TARP money that isn't ... uh, TARP money? Why does this remind me of Hank Paulson?

I'd definitely like to see the plan for the next stimulus package, instead of focusing on these contortions to get it funded.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 08:19:00 PM

November retail sales will be released tomorrow morning, but December is apparently off to a slow start ...

From the WSJ: Sales Lull Has Retailers Worried

The first week of December, typically a lackluster time in the wake of Black Friday, was particularly slow. ... "After solid traffic the first couple of days, it looks like the middle of August out there," said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis for retail watcher NPD Group.

And on a key category: Videogames Sales Fall Again in November

Combined November videogame software and hardware revenue fell 7.6% from a year earlier to $2.69 billion, data tracker NPD said Thursday. But revenue from videogame sales fell a surprising 3.1% amid expectations of mild growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range.

Without growth in consumer spending, the recovery will be sluggish at best.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 05:19:00 PM

If there were 143,276 cumulative HAMP trial modifications in June - and the maximum length of a trial was extended to five months - how come there were only 31,382 permanent mods and 30,650 disqualified modifications by the end of November?

What happened to the other 82,244 modifications? Have they been extended?

And of the 697,026 active trial modifications, are all the borrowers current? That data seems to be missing from this release (HAMP report here)

My understanding was the HAMP data would show how many trial modifications had started, and the redefault rate by month. That key data is still missing.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2009 02:48:00 PM

Update: Treasury link now working, graphic added.

From Diana Olick at CNBC: First Look: Inside The $75 Billion Plan to Save Housing

Of the 759,058 modifications started, 697,026 are still in the three month trial phase. ... Treasury reports that 31,382 trial modifications are now permanent. ... 30,650 modifications were disqualified.

Olick has much more.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

That is about a 50% failure rate during the trial period - and only a fraction of the eligible borrowers even bother.

Here is the link at Treasury. See here for a list of reports.