by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 02:21:00 PM

Excerpts posted with permission from Campbell Surveys

In September the housing market took a major turn to the upside, according to respondents to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions. Real estate agent survey respondents reported average residential property prices rose 6% from August to September ...

The reported month-to-month price increase of 6% was driven by high demand for REO –also commonly referred to as foreclosed properties--according to transaction data reported by survey respondents. ...

The average price for non-distressed properties remained nearly constant between August and September. ...

Strong demand for moderately priced REO caused time-on-market for these properties to decline markedly. In August, damaged REO stayed on the market an average of 9.4 weeks; by September, time-on-market had declined to 7.0 weeks. For move-in ready REO, time-on-market declined from 8.0 weeks in August to 5.9 weeks in September. In contrast, average time-on-market for non-distressed properties rose from 13.0 weeks in August to 14.2 weeks in September.

First–time homebuyer demand for properties continued to be strong in the month of September. First-time homebuyers accounted for 42% of home purchase transactions in September. ...

Many agents indicated an REO buying frenzy in local markets, especially California. “Entry level REO's are taken by the storm! Many multiple offers!” exclaimed a California agent. “Low inventory and high demand are resulting in 20-60 offers on most properties in the entry level to moderate price points. First-time homebuyers have difficulty competing with investors and high down-payment buyers,” reported another real estate agent located in California. “Banks and listing agents are pricing these REO's at liquidation prices to encourage a bidding war and it's working,” wrote a real estate agent located in Florida.

Despite reporting strong increases in both average prices and number of transactions, real estate agents responding to the survey gave a hint of looming problems caused by rising unemployment. For the third month in a row, the survey’s inventory index showed rising inventories of short sale properties, while inventories of REO properties were flat or declining.
emphasis added

As we've discussed before, there is a buying frenzy right now in the existing home market, especially at the low end. Unfortunately existing home sales add little to the economy (compared to new home sales). And the impact is even less than usual right now because many of the marginal buyers are using the first-time homebuyer tax credit as their downpayment, and have little additional money to spend on furniture or upgrades.

For the economy, the numbers to track are housing starts, new home sales, and residential investment - not existing home sales.

by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 01:00:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

The housing market index (HMI) decreased to 18 in October from 19 in September. The record low was 8 set in January. Note that Traffic of Prospective Buyers declined sharply.

This is still very low - and this is what I've expected - a long period of builder depression.

Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

This second graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the October release for the HMI and the August data for starts (September starts will be released tomorrow).

This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move in the same direction - although there is plenty of noise month-to-month. Those expecting a sharp rebound in starts are probably wrong.

Press release from the NAHB (added): Builder Confidence Slips in October

“This is the first time since November of 2008 that all three component indexes of the HMI have declined,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Clearly, builders are experiencing the effects of the expiring tax credit on their sales activity, since it would be virtually impossible at this point to complete a new home sale in time to take advantage of that buyer incentive before Nov. 30.”
...
Each of the HMI’s component indexes recorded declines in October. The component gauging current sales conditions fell one point to 17, while the component gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined two points to 27 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell three points to 14.

On a regional basis, the Northeast was the only part of the country to record an improvement in its HMI score, with a one-point gain to 25. Meanwhile, the Midwest and South each recorded one-point declines to 18 and the West recorded a four-point decline to 14.

by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 09:55:00 AM

Bloomberg reviewed 23 recent Inspector General reports of bank failures and concluded that the FDIC "failed to enforce its own guidelines to rein in excessive commercial real estate lending" (CRE).

From Bloomberg: FDIC Failed to Limit Commercial Real-Estate Loans, Reports Show (hts Mike in Long Island, Ron at WallStreetPit)

... The FDIC’s Office of Inspector General analyzed 23 lenders taken over by regulators from August 2008 to March and found that for 20, the agency’s examiners didn’t identify the issue early enough or should have taken stronger supervisory action after recognizing the banks had dangerously high levels of the loans before they failed. ...

“It’s often we’ll see in our reports that the FDIC detected problems in the bank in a timely fashion, but in some cases forceful corrective action wasn’t required by the FDIC to be taken quickly enough,” Jon Rymer, the FDIC’s inspector general, said in a telephone interview.

This is recurring theme. The examiners in the field, for both the FDIC and the Fed, recognized problems fairly early, but the agencies failed to take aggressive action.

Here are two related posts: Inspector General: FDIC saw risks at IndyMac in 2002 and Federal Reserve Oversight and the Failure of Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast

The from a state regulator:

“We should have been more strict,” Joseph Smith, North Carolina’s bank commissioner and chairman of the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, said in a telephone interview. ...

“Had we required the reduction of CRE lending, it would have been thought of as an intrusion by regulators into the businesses of banks and to the operations of local economies,” Smith said. “Yes, it would have been the right thing to do. It would have caused a firestorm then. That might have been better than a firestorm now.”

I believe the regulators should have clamped down on CRE lending in 2006 - and the FDIC was aware of the problem. Here is a proposed interagency guidance on CRE lending from January 13, 2006.

Concentrations of CRE loans may expose institutions to unanticipated earnings and capital volatility in the event of adverse changes in the general commercial real estate market. ... The proposed guidance reinforces existing guidelines for real estate lending and provides criteria for identifying institutions with CRE loan concentrations that may warrant greater supervisory scrutiny.

The final comments from Joseph Smith provide a clue as to the real problem. The examiners in the field were finding the problems, but the regulators were failing to act because "it would cause a firestorm" and it would be "thought of as an intrusion by regulators".

by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 08:40:00 AM

From the FSA:

The Financial Services Authority (FSA) today sets out proposals for the major reforms required in the UK mortgage market to ensure that it works better for consumers and is sustainable for all market participants.

The proposals, published in the mortgage market review discussion paper, reflect the FSA’s changed approach to a more intrusive and interventionist style of regulation.
...
“The paper sets out the main findings of the FSA’s comprehensive analysis of the mortgage market. It clearly shows a rapid explosion in mortgage products; the emergence of high risk lending strategies which typically focused on higher risk borrowers; relaxed credit standards; and a mutual assumption by too many borrowers and lenders that the good times could not end.

“The FSA needs to ensure that firms only lend to people who can afford to pay the money back. The reforms that we have announced today will ensure that the mortgage market works better for consumers and that it is sustainable for firms.”
...
The discussion paper is out for discussion until 30 January 2010 and the FSA will be actively seeking views from consumer groups and industry. A feedback statement will be published in March. Implementation will be phased ...

•Affordability tests: the DP proposes making the lender ultimately responsible in every sale for verifying affordability. It also proposes that in each case a lender should assess the consumer’s ability to repay, i.e. calculate the free disposable income a consumer has to pay for the mortgage.

•Self-certification: the DP proposes requiring verification of income for all mortgage applications;

• Toxic combinations: the DP discusses whether a type of product regulation likely to be more effective in protecting consumers would be to prohibit loans to borrowers that exhibit certain multiple high-risk characteristics, such as prohibiting loans to credit-impaired borrowers that are also at high loan-to-income.

• Arrears: the FSA will publish specific proposals in January to toughen up rules on arrears handling as well as banning administration charges where a borrower is adhering to an arrangement to repay arrears; and prohibiting the charging of early redemption charges on arrears fees.

• Requiring all mortgage advisers to be personally accountable to the FSA; DP proposes extending the Approved Persons regime to mortgage advisers who deal with consumers and to advisers and/or arrangers who are responsible for overseeing compliance ...
emphasis added

They are going to ban stated income loans, limit risk layering (a key problem), limit arrears charges, hold mortgage lenders personally accountable, and require affordability tests.

This is a good model for the U.S.

For amusement, here is The Times headline: Homebuyers face questions on alcohol spending

Homebuyers could be forced to provide detailed information about the amount of money they spend on alcohol each month to qualify for a new mortgage under a new clampdown on reckless lending. ... It said lenders should delve deeper into homebuyers' personal spending including the amount they spend on alcohol and tobacco.

by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2009 09:23:00 PM

Some long posts earlier, so here is a summary:

A guest post from albrt. He reviews the Massachusetts court ruling: U.S. Bank v. Ibanez. This ruling will slow down the process in Massachusetts, but as albrt noted: "Judge Long invalidated the foreclosures, not the mortgages. In all likelihood, the holders of the mortgages will be able to go back and foreclose eventually, but they will spend some additional time and money doing it."

A look at Q3 GDP: Inventory Restocking and Q3 GDP. For other views on Q3, see: Econbrowser's No L and Krugman's A smidgen of optimism

From Roger Vincent at the LA Times: Southern California's vast desolation indoors

... Almost 51 million square feet of office space in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire is now empty -- more than 17% of the total.

And the Telegraph reports on the end of stated income loans in the U.K.: Era of cheap mortgages is over, British homeowners warned

[T]he Financial Services Authority ... plans to tighten up regulation and crack down on risky lending ...

The FSA's Mortgage Market Review, published tomorrow, will focus on the third of the market considered "higher risk". ... Among the report's proposals, the financial regulator is expected to call for an end to self-certification mortgages and rule that responsibility for income verification be transferred from mortgage brokers to lenders.

The HUD Inspector General issued a report the FHA single-family lender approval process. The report found the "FHA's lender application process not adequate to ensure that all of its lender approval requirements were met" (here is the report).

The Problem Bank List (Unofficial) increased significantly last week to 479 banks, with $319 billion in assets. Only one bank failed -San Joaquin Bank, Bakersfield, California - bringing the total FDIC insured bank failures to 99 in 2009.

Here are the stats for LA Area Port Traffic in September. Loaded inbound traffic was 17.4% below September 2008, but loaded outbound traffic was only 8.6% below September 2008. Exports are doing better than imports.

This will be another busy week with two key housing reports: Housing starts on Tuesday, and Existing home sales on Friday. I expect single family starts to be about the same as last month (the number to watch), and existing home sales to be higher than last month (based on regional reports).