by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2009 06:08:00 PM

Sweet fruits of labor
A long weekend for resting
Also for failure
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Great American Bank, De Soto, Kansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri

First Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri, was closed today by the Missouri Division of Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Great American Bank, De Soto, Kansas, to assume all of the deposits of First Bank of Kansas City.
...
As of June 30, 2009, First Bank of Kansas City had total assets of $16 million and total deposits of approximately $15 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $6 million. ... First Bank of Kansas City is the 85th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Missouri. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was American Sterling Bank, Sugar Creek, on April 17, 2009.

A small one to start the day.

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2009 04:29:00 PM

From the Mercury News: Editorial: Congress should expand $8,000 home-buyer tax credit (ht ShortCourage)

[I]t's crucial that when Congress returns from recess next week, lawmakers extend the soon-to-expire credit through 2010. And if they want to bolster the fledgling recovery, they'll expand eligibility.

Though the credit has helped stabilize the housing market nationally, in the pricey Bay Area, it hasn't been as helpful. ... Lifting the income caps and expanding the credit to all buyers of primary residences would nudge existing homeowners to move up. That would open up more houses in the red-hot lower end of the market, where many first-time buyers have been outbid by investors paying cash.
...
The National Association of Home Builders estimates that expanding and extending the credit through 2010 would generate 500,000 additional sales ... estimated to cost $30 billion ...

Do the math. $30 billion for an additional 500,000 sales equals $60,000 per house. Ouch.

And forget the 500 thousand additional sales. The evidence suggests that interest is already waning (although there will be a flurry of activity at the end just like Cash-for-clunkers). My estimate is the program will cost taxpayers $100,000 per additional home sold. Not very efficient or effective.

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2009 03:12:00 PM

From Rex Nutting at MarketWatch: Lost decade for job growth

[T]he private sector didn't just lose jobs over the last month or the last year -- it's lost jobs over the last decade.

[The private sector] ended up with a net loss of 223,000 jobs since August 1999, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the nation's population has grown by 33.5 million people.

That's the worst job-creating performance by the private sector since, you guessed it, the Great Depression.

Here is a different way to look at it: net jobs in the Naughts (2000 through 2009).

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: scale doesn't start at zero to show the change. This is a followup to Naught for the Naughts?.

The dashed lines show the level of private and total jobs at the end of the '90s (December 1999).

As Nutting notes, the private sector has lost jobs over the last decade, and is down 1.256 million jobs in the Naughts (so the decade will finish with net negative private sector jobs).

Total jobs are up 691 thousand since Dec 1999, and with four months to go, the race is on! If the economy loses about 172 thousand jobs on average over the next four months, total jobs will finish negative too.

Naught for the Naughts. A lost decade for employment.

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2009 01:45:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks.

The list is compiled from regulator press releases or from public news sources (see Enforcement Action Type link for source). The FDIC data is released monthly with a delay, and the Fed and OTC data is more timely. The OCC data is a little lagged. Credit: surferdude808.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

During the week, 12 institutions with aggregate assets of $17.7 billion were added to the Unofficial Problem Bank List.

The list stands at 421 institutions with assets of $267.8 billion.

Largest among the additions is Capmark Bank, a Utah-based industrial loan company with assets of $11.1 billion. Should the parent, Capmark Financial Group, not find a buyer this could be another costly failure. Other notable additions include the $2.4 billion Bank of the Cascades, Bend, Oregon; the $1.9 billion Citizens First Savings Bank, Port Huron, Michigan; and two bankers’ banks – Midwest Independent Bank in Missouri and Nebraska Bankers’ Bank.

All three deletions from the list were because of failure including Affinity Bank, Mainstreet Bank, and Bradford Bank. Lastly, the OTS issued a Prompt Corrective Action order against Vantus Bank, Sioux City, Iowa, which was already operating under a Cease & Desist order.

See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

For a full screen version of the table click here.

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)





Class: from FDIC

The FDIC assigns classification codes indicating an institution's charter type (commercial bank, savings bank, or savings association), its chartering agent (state or federal government), its Federal Reserve membership status (member or nonmember), and its primary federal regulator (state-chartered institutions are subject to both federal and state supervision). These codes are:

N National chartered commercial bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

SM State charter Fed member commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve

NM State charter Fed nonmember commercial bank supervised by the FDIC

SA State or federal charter savings association supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision

SB State charter savings bank supervised by the FDIC

Cert: This is the certificate number assigned by the FDIC used to identify institutions and for the issuance of insurance certificates. Click on the number and the Institution Directory (ID) system "will provide the last demographic and financial data filed by the selected institution".

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2009 10:40:00 AM

A few more graphs based on the (un)employment report ...

Employment-Population Ratio

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph show the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.

Note: the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The general upward trend from the early '60s was mostly due to women entering the workforce. As an example, in 1964 women were about 32% of the workforce, today the percentage is closer to 50%.

This measure fell in August to 59.2%, the lowest level since the early '80s. This also shows the weak recovery following the 2001 recession - and the current cliff diving!

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

In August, the number of persons working part time for economic reasons was little changed at 9.1 million. These individuals indicated that they were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. The number of such workers rose sharply in the fall and winter but has been little changed since March.

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) is at 9.076 million. This is only slightly below the peak of 9.084 million in May.

Note: the U.S. population is significantly larger today (about 305 million) than in the early '80s (about 228 million) when the number of part time workers almost reached 7 million. That is the equivalent of about 9.3 million today, so population adjusted this is not quite a record.

Average Weekly Hours

From the BLS report:

In August, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.1 hours. The manufacturing workweek and factory overtime also showed no change over the month (at 39.8 hours and 2.9 hours, respectively).

The average weekly hours has been declining since the early '60s, but usually falls faster during a recession. Average weekly hours worked has essentially been flat since March.

Some analyst look to an increase in this series as an indicator a recession is over. I guess they are still waiting.

Note: the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Earlier employment posts today:

Employment Report: 216K Jobs Lost, 9.7% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.

Unemployment: Stress Tests, Unemployed over 26 Weeks, Diffusion Index