by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2009 12:35:00 AM

Jim doesn't think much of this deal ...

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2009 07:13:00 PM

Here is some national data on the number of distressed sales in Q2, and the types of homebuyers. This is from a survey by Campbell Communications (excerpted with permission).

Source: Summary Report--Real Estate Agents Report on Home Purchases and Mortgages, Campbell Communications, June 2009

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The Campbell survey broke REOs down into damaged and move-in ready.

According to this national survey of real estate agents, over 63% of sales were distressed sales in Q2. This is higher than the numbers reported by NAR. From NAR:

Distressed properties ... accounted for 31 percent of sales in June ... Distressed properties, which declined to 33 percent of all sales in May from 45 percent in April ...

The Campbell numbers seem high to me. In Sacramento over 70% of sales in June were distressed, and I'd expect that area to well above the national level. But the NAR numbers seem low.

The second graph breaks out sales by buyer type.

According to the Campbell survey over 70% of sales in Q2 were to first-time buyers and investors.

Although we don't have historical data for distressed properties - or buyer types - this does suggest a market that is far from normal with few move-across or move-up buyers.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2009 04:39:00 PM

From California AG Jerry Brown: Brown Orders Mortgage Foreclosure Consultants to Post $100,000 Bond or Face Prosecution (ht Matt at O.C. Register)

Threatening possible criminal and civil prosecution, Attorney General Edmund G. Brown Jr. today ordered 386 mortgage foreclosure consultants to post $100,000 bonds and register with his office.

He also ordered more than two dozen companies to justify suspicious loan modification claims made in "slick advertising," online and through the mail.
...
Brown has sent letters directing 386 mortgage foreclosure consultants to register with his office within 10 days and post $100,000 bond, or demonstrate why they are not required to. If the consultants are required to register and have failed to do so, they are subject to criminal penalties of up to a year in jail and fines ranging from $1,000 to $25,000 per violation. Eighty-five of these consultants are based in Los Angeles County, 133 in Orange County, 47 in the Inland Empire, 68 in San Diego County and seven in the Bay Area.
...
The State Bar of California today announced that it has obtained resignations from two lawyers and filed charges against a third for their loan modification activities.

And check out some of this advertising that Brown demanded loan consultants substantiate:

· Brown directed Irsfeld, Irsfeld & Younger, LLP as corporate counsel for JL Richman, doing business as Home Retention Programs of Glendale, Calif. to substantiate its claims including: "Our team has 10 years of success in negotiating 90% of all mortgage loan modification requests to a successful outcome….For the modification requests we accept, our modification failure rate is less than 1%."

· Brown directed 21st Century Real Estate Investment Corporation of Rancho Cucamonga to substantiate its written solicitations including: "[y]our proposed loan modification is a 30 year fixed/3.5% interest rate with a monthly payment of $495. Your monthly savings is $705. Total savings over a 30-year period is $253,800. . . . Your first payment will be negotiated to begin March 2009 - payable to your current lender for $495."

· Brown directed Mortgage Modification Solutions of Irvine to substantiate its claims including: "Our services are due to the FEDERAL MANDATE which makes it mandatory for mortgagees, upon the default of a single family mortgage, to engage in loss mitigation actions" and "Why $3995.00 is nothing compared to what you can accomplish in return? #1- It's 10 times more expensive to hire a CPA or a Financial Advisor to exclusively analyze & Research your financial affairs to create a plan acceptable to the Banking standards."

· Brown directed Alliance Law Center of San Diego to substantiate its letters to consumers stating: "Final Notice: 3/11/09, our review of certain information indicates you may be a victim of federal disclosure violations and/or predatory lending violations, therefore your loan may be invalid, and you may qualify for a loan modification saving you thousands of dollars."

The tips on avoiding scams can't be repeated enough.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2009 02:15:00 PM

From the FOMC:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but are making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.

The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2009 01:08:00 PM

I just reread the previous Fed statement to refresh my mind on a few key sentences. Here is the statement from the June 24th meeting.

On the Fed funds rate, I expect no change to this sentence: "The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."

But I expect some changes to the economic conditions paragraph. The key phrase last month was "the pace of economic contraction is slowing", and it will be interesting to see if the Fed sees the end of contraction now.

As I noted last week, the $300 billion program to buy Treasury securities is almost over, so there will probably be a comment on this program. More in an hour ...