by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2009 08:56:00 PM

From Forbes: Bank Earnings: Beauty Is Skin-Deep (ht Brett)

The banking industry is bracing for continued losses from consumer loans, considering the rising unemployment rate, and an expected wave of commercial real-estate losses. At a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington on Thursday, Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., related a comment to him by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair that another 500 banks could fail "unless something dramatic happens."

Note that this is Bunning's recollection of a discussion with FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair - so this might not be exactly what Bair said.

UPDATE: FDIC spokesman, Andrew Gray, disputed Bunning’s recollection (ht we will not monetize):

“In both public and private settings, the chairman and the FDIC is always careful to not make predictions on the number of upcoming bank failures,” Gray said in an e-mail. “No estimate” was given during the meeting, which took place last week, Gray said.

“We would regret any miscommunication, but she did not say that,” Gray added.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2009 06:31:00 PM

Note: this is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports.

Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Inbound traffic was 22.2% below June 2008.

Outbound traffic was 19.2% below May 2008.

There had been some recovery in U.S. exports over the last few months (the year-over-year comparison was off 30% from December through February). And this showed up in the in the May trade report, but the port data suggests exports were a little weaker in June.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2009 04:05:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

Tomorrow could be wild. CIT might file bankrutpcy, Corus Bank and Guaranty Financial might be seized by the FDIC ...

From the Journal Sentinel: Judge denies Guaranty Bank's request to halt insurance payments

A federal judge has denied Guaranty Bank's request that it be allowed to halt payments to an insurance company despite Guaranty's contention that continuing to pay millions of dollars in premiums each month threatened the bank's survival.

In February, Guaranty asked the court to let it stop paying premiums to Evanston Insurance Co. of Deerfield, Ill, but nonetheless keep the insurer's coverage on its home-equity loan portfolio intact. Guaranty also sought the return of $30 million in premiums paid since 2004, contending the policy was sold to the bank illegally under Wisconsin insurance law.

In a brief filed with the lawsuit, Guaranty asserted at the time: "This is a 'bet the bank' motion because the continued existence of Guaranty Bank rests on the outcome."

From the WSJ: CIT Bondholders Hash Out Their Options and Bloomberg: CIT Group’s Bondholders Said to Discuss Debt Swap

From Reuters: MGIC to halt new business; posts steep loss

Mortgage insurer MGIC Investment Corp reported a wider quarterly loss and said it will stop writing new business as losses mount in the battered housing sector ...

The largest U.S. mortgage insurer said it will wind down its business and try to capitalize a fresh enterprise that would write new loans beginning next year.

UPDATE: Roubini: Views on Economy Unchanged Despite Reports

Earlier Roubini report was titled: Roubini Now Says The Worst Of Economic Crisis Is Over

Nouriel Roubini, the economist whose dire forecasts earned him the nickname "Doctor Doom," is now saying that the worst of the economic and financial crisis may be over.
...
Roubini still warned that the US may need a second fiscal stimulus package of up to $250 billion by the end of the year to boost the deteriorating labor market, Reuters reported.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2009 02:31:00 PM

From Bloomberg: CIT Bondholders Said to Consider Debt Swap as Bankruptcy Looms

CIT Group Inc. bondholders are holding calls today to discuss whether to swap some of their claims for equity to reduce the 101-year-old lender’s indebtedness ...

[PIMCO], CIT’s largest bondholder based on regulatory filings, plans to host a call ... [however] there may not be time to complete a debt exchange before CIT goes bankrupt.

Looks like PIMCO expected a bailout.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2009 02:10:00 PM

Note: Ignore the median price, especially during periods when the mix is changing rapidly.

From DataQuick: Bay Area home sales and median price rise

Home sales in the Bay Area jumped to their highest level in almost three years, the result of improved mortgage availability and a perception among potential buyers that prices have bottomed out. ...

A total of 8,644 new and resale houses and condos sold across the nine-county Bay Area in June. That was up 16.1 percent from 7,447 in May and up 20.4 percent from 7,178 in June 2008, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

Home sales have increased on a year-over-year basis the last ten months. June sales have varied from a low of 7,118 in 1993 to 15,735 in 2004 in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988. Last month was 16.1 percent below the 10,306 for an average June.
...
Financing with home loans above the old “jumbo” limit of $417,000 edged up to the highest level in almost a year. Last month 28.8 percent of all Bay Area mortgages were jumbos, the highest since 31.9 percent in August last year and well above the bottom of 17.1 percent last January. Two years ago jumbos accounted for more than 60 percent of all home purchase loans.
...
Last month 37.3 percent of all homes resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months, down from 40.5 percent in May and the lowest since 36.0 percent in August 2008. The peak was 52.0 percent in February this year. By county, foreclosure resales ranged last month from 6.3 percent of all resales in Marin to 62.7 percent in Solano.
...
Foreclosure activity remains near record levels ...

This is still far from a normal market with 37.3% of sales foreclosure resales. And prices will probably continue to fall for some time, especially in the higher priced areas since there are few move-up buyers.