by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2009 04:00:00 PM

By popular demand ... the S&P 500 was up almost 3% today. The NASDAQ was up 3.5%.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990.

The dashed line is the closing price today.

The S&P 500 is up almost 38% from the bottom (256 points), and still off 40% from the peak (632 points below the max).

The second graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2009 03:44:00 PM

From CNBC: CIT Shares Halted as Decision On US Aid for Lender Nears

Shares of CIT Group were halted late Wednesday as financial regulators neared a decision on aiding the troubled lender, CNBC has learned.

A resolution of the CIT situation is expected within the next 24 hours, sources said.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2009 02:33:00 PM

Back in February I pointed out that I expected to see some economic rays of sunshine this year. But I never expected an immaculate recovery forecast from the FOMC.

Although I've argued repeatedly that a "Great Depression 2" was extremely unlikely, I think the other extreme - an immaculate recovery - is also unlikely.

It is probably a good time to review the usual engines of a recovery. (see Business Cycle: Temporal Order for the order in and out of a recession)

The following table shows a simplified typical temporal order for emerging from a recession.

When Recovery Typically Starts

During Recession	Lags End of Recession	Significantly Lags End of Recession
Residential Investment	Investment, Equipment & Software	Investment, non-residential Structures
PCE	Unemployment(1)

Housing usually leads the economy both into and out of recessions (this was true for the Great Depression too). However this time, with the huge overhang of excess inventory and high levels of distressed sales, it seems unlikely that residential investment will pick up significantly any time soon.

Note: Residential investment is mostly new home construction and home improvements.

And that leaves Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and as households increase their savings rate to repair their balance sheets and work down their debt, it seems unlikely that PCE will increase significantly any time soon. Maybe there will be a pickup in auto sales from the current depressed levels, but in general a strong increase in PCE seems unlikely. So even if the economy bottoms in the 2nd half of 2009, any recovery will probably be very sluggish.

Most companies are not investing in new equipment and software - other than the normal equipment replacement purchases - because they already have too much capacity. They will not need to expand until their sales pick up significantly. So it seems unlikely that investment in equipment and software would boom until consumer spending has increased. Of course increased U.S. exports would help - but export to whom? China, and a few others ... but most of the world is also hurting.

I still think the keys are Residential Investment (RI) and PCE, and therefore I think the recovery will be sluggish. The increasingly severe slump in CRE and non-residential investment in structures will be interesting, but that is a lagging indicator for the economy.

(1) In recent recessions, unemployment significantly lagged the end of the recession. That is very likely this time too.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2009 02:03:00 PM

Here are the June FOMC minutes. Economic outlook:

In the forecast prepared for the June meeting, the staff revised upward its outlook for economic activity during the remainder of 2009 and for 2010. Consumer spending appeared to have stabilized since the start of the year, sales and starts of new homes were flattening out, and the recent declines in capital spending did not look as severe as those that had occurred around the turn of the year. Recent declines in payroll employment and industrial production, while still sizable, were smaller than those registered earlier in 2009. Household wealth was higher, corporate bond rates had fallen, the value of the dollar was lower, the outlook for foreign activity was better, and financial stress appeared to have eased somewhat more than had been anticipated in the staff forecast prepared for the prior FOMC meeting. The projected boost to aggregate demand from these factors more than offset the negative effects of higher oil prices and mortgage rates. The staff projected that real GDP would decline at a substantially slower rate in the second quarter than it had in the first quarter and then increase in the second half of 2009, though less rapidly than potential output. The staff also revised up its projection for the increase in real GDP in 2010, to a pace above the growth rate of potential GDP. As a consequence, the staff projected that the unemployment rate would rise further in 2009 but would edge down in 2010. Meanwhile, the staff forecast for inflation was marked up. Recent readings on core consumer prices had come in a bit higher than expected; in addition, the rise in energy prices, less-favorable import prices, and the absence of any downward movement in inflation expectations led the staff to raise its medium-term inflation outlook. Nonetheless, the low level of resource utilization was projected to result in an appreciable deceleration in core consumer prices through 2010.

Looking ahead to 2011 and 2012, the staff anticipated that financial markets and institutions would continue to recuperate, monetary policy would remain stimulative, fiscal stimulus would be fading, and inflation expectations would be relatively well anchored. Under such conditions, the staff projected that real GDP would expand at a rate well above that of its potential, that the unemployment rate would decline significantly, and that overall and core personal consumption expenditures inflation would stay low.
emphasis added

The Fed sees an immaculate recovery. That seems unlikely to me.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2009 11:34:00 AM

Last night Merrill Lynch declared the recession over.

From Tom Petruno at the LA Times: 'Recession is over,' BofA Merrill Lynch tells investors

And from CNBC:

It is usually difficult to tell when a recession has ended - especially for a jobless recovery.

It took the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee over a year and half after the 2001 recession ended to call the trough of the cycle. And it took 21 months after the 1990-1991 recession ended for NBER to date the end of the recession.

From the 2003 announcement of the end of the 2001 recession:

The committee waited to make the determination of the trough date until it was confident that any future downturn in the economy would be considered a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in March 2001.

The economy was still struggling in 2003 - especially employment - but the NBER committee members felt that any subsequent downturn would be considered a separate recession:

The committee noted that the most recent data indicate that the broadest measure of economic activity-gross domestic product in constant dollars-has risen 4.0 percent from its low in the third quarter of 2001, and is 3.3 percent above its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2000. Two other indicators of economic activity that play an important role in the committee's decisions-personal income excluding transfer payments and the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors, both in real terms-have also surpassed their pre-recession peaks. Two other indicators the committee focuses on-payroll employment and industrial production-remain well below their pre-recession peaks. Indeed, the most recent data indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all. The committee determined, however, that the fact that the broadest, most comprehensive measure of economic activity is well above its pre-recession levels implied that any subsequent downturn in the economy would be a separate recession.

This is relevant to today. It is very likely that any recovery will be very sluggish, and if the economy turns down within the next 6 to 12 months, the NBER would probably consider that a continuation of the Great Recession.

Here is the NBER dating procedure.

Note that the trough of the 1980 recession was only 12 months before the beginning of the 1981 recession, but the short recovery was fairly robust with real GDP up 4.4%. Those two recessions are frequently called a "double dip" recession, but the NBER considers them as two separate recessions.

I think the "official" recession will probably end sometime in the 2nd half of 2009, but the recovery will be very sluggish and there is a risk of a double dip recession. Roubini argues that the recession will end sometime in early 2010. Maybe. But I also think it will feel like a recession for some time, since the unemployment rate will probably rise through most of 2010, and stay elevated for a long period (a jobless recovery).