by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2009 10:54:00 AM

SEC data guy brings us some interesting data on SEC filings with companies expressing: "Substantial Doubt"

Below is a graph that shows the total number of distinct entities filing a 10-K or 10-Q over time. It also shows the number of distinct entities expressing "substantial doubt" for the first time in one of those filings

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Note: Left scale doesn't start at zero, and the right scale is a 4 quarter average.

These are just initial expressions of "substantial doubt".

On a cumulative basis, a stunning number of filers are expressing concerns (more to come on this). For details, see SEC data guy's post.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2009 10:06:00 AM

From MarketWatch: July UMichigan consumer sentiment falls to 64.6

U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply in early July, according to a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters. Sentiment fell to 64.6 from 70.8 in June.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator - it tells you what you pretty much already know.

And it tells us right now that consumer sentiment is still very weak.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2009 08:53:00 AM

Here is the press conference at 9 AM ET:

From the NY Times: With Sale of Its Good Assets, G.M. Tries for a Fresh Start

General Motors completed a major step in its turnaround on Friday and closed the sale of its good assets to a new, government-backed carmaker....

G.M.’s sale of its desirable assets, including brands like Chevrolet, Cadillac and GMC, to the new company — now named Vehicle Acquisition Company but soon to be renamed the General Motors Company — is meant to shed decades of buckling liabilities. The federal government will hold nearly 61 percent of the new company ...

The new company will be much smaller, with brands like Saturn, Hummer, Opel and Pontiac in the process of being sold or closed.

That was fast!

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2009 08:30:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports:

The ... total May exports of $123.3 billion and imports of $149.3 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $26.0 billion, down from $28.8 billion in April, revised. May exports were $1.9 billion more than April exports of $121.4 billion. May imports were $0.9 billion less than April imports of $150.2 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through May 2009.

Imports declined again in May, but U.S. exports were up slightly. On a year-over-year basis, exports are off 21% and imports are off 31%.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through May.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Import oil prices increased slightly to $51.21 in May - the third monthly increase in a row. Spot prices have increased since May, so oil prices will rise further for June and July.

It appears the cliff diving for U.S. trade might be over - especially for U.S. exports.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2009 12:21:00 AM

From the WaPo: White House Prods Banks

In a two-page letter [to the country's largest banks], Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and Shaun Donovan, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, acknowledge that the government program, known as Making Home Affordable, has yet to gain traction since being launched in March.

"We believe there is a general need for servicers to devote substantially more resources to this program for it to fully succeed and achieve the objectives we all share," the letter said.
...
The banks were also told to designate a senior liaison for the program and to prepare for a July 28 meeting with senior Treasury and HUD officials ...

"We are asking that all servicers expand servicing capacity and improve the execution quality of loan modifications in order to help the sizable number of homeowners at risk of foreclosure and eligible for the program," the letter said.

The administration will begin issuing monthly reports by Aug. 4 detailing lenders' performance ...

The results have been disappointing so far, with few modifications and a high re-default rate. Also most of the modifications so far have been the "extend and pretend" type, with a capitalization of missed payments and fees, lower interest rates, and longer terms - leaving many borrowers with significant negative equity and high likelihood of a future default.