by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 11:19:00 PM

I've featured a few of Merle Hazard's videos like Merle Hazard Meets Arthur Laffer and Mark to Market.

Here Merle chats with Stanford economist John Taylor:

And that inspires Merle: Inflation or Deflation

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 09:20:00 PM

From the WSJ: More Banks Will Need Capital

The U.S. is expected to direct about 10 of the 19 banks undergoing government stress tests to boost their capital ...

One big risk worrying industry officials is that the market will view banks on the list as insolvent when the official results are announced Thursday, even though Fed officials have repeatedly said that's not the case.
...
An initial stress test identified Wells Fargo as among the banks needing a bigger buffer ... It is unclear whether Wells would be forced to raise fresh capital or if regulators would accept the bank's argument that it can earn its way through the losses in future years. Wells expects more clarity Tuesday.

Wells Fargo will probably suffer enormous losses from Wachovia's Option ARM portfolio (originally from Golden West) and from their own HELOC portfolio. The estimated losses will apparently be broken out into the 12 categories listed in the Fed's White Paper, and that should show substantial losses for Wells Fargo in these categories.

Citi, BofA, Wells ... the constant leaks are pretty amazing ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 06:11:00 PM

By popular demand ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

The S&P 500 is up 34% from the bottom, and still off 42% from the peak.

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

The second graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990.

The dashed line is the closing price today.

This puts the recent rally into perspective.

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 04:23:00 PM

This isn't breaking news - just a couple of photos from reader Anthony of the ManhattanWest project in Las Vegas (photos taken yesterday).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Photo Credit: Anthony.

Construction was halted on ManhattanWest in December.

From the Las Vegas Review-Journal in March: ManhattanWest latest casualty of crisis

ManhattanWest, a $350 million development that would include 700 condo units, restaurants, offices and shops on a 20-acre site near Las Vegas Beltway ... Gemstone topped off the nine-story Element House at ManhattanWest in August. The mid-rise residential buildings are about 80 percent finished.

ManhattenWest isn't the only halted project in Las Vegas:

Last year, Mira Villa condos and Vantage Lofts stopped construction and went into bankruptcy. Sullivan Square had barely begun excavation before the project was canceled. Spanish View Towers was the first high-rise project to stop construction after partially building an underground parking garage.

The second photo shows the only activity at the site; a security guard relaxing in the sun.

There are halted condo projects in many cities - and this is inventory that will some day come on the market. Note: as a reminder, high rise condo inventory is not included in the new home sales report - so this is additional inventory that is sometimes overlooked.

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 02:07:00 PM

From the Fed: The April 2009 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
on Bank Lending Practices

In the April survey, the net percentages of respondents that reported having tightened their business lending policies over the previous three months, although continuing to be very elevated, edged down for the second consecutive survey. In contrast, somewhat larger net percentages of domestic banks than in the January survey reported having tightened credit standards on residential mortgages. The net percentage of domestic respondents that reported having tightened their lending policies on credit card loans remained about unchanged from the January survey, whereas the net percentage that reported having tightened their policies on other consumer loans fell. Respondents indicated that demand for loans from both businesses and households continued to weaken for nearly all types of loans over the survey period, an exception being demand for prime mortgages, a category of loans that registered an increase in demand for the first time since the survey began to track prime mortgages separately in April 2007.

In response to the special questions on the outlook for loan quality, a significant majority of banks reported that credit quality for all types of loans is likely to deteriorate over the year if the economy progresses according to consensus forecasts.

Charts here for CRE, residential mortgage, consumer loans and C&I.