by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2009 09:23:00 AM

Note: Any reading below 50 indicates conditions are worsening; above 50 improving. So the increase in the index to 16 means the apartment conditions are worsening, but at a slower pace.

"Worse conditions" implies higher vacancy rates and lower rents - so it is good for renters.

From the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Market Still Suffering Downturn, Though Pace Is Decelerating, According To National Multi Housing Council Survey

Apartment market conditions continue to worsen, though the pace is decelerating, according to the National Multi Housing Council's (NMHC) latest Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions.

While all four market indexes remained below 50 (index numbers below 50 indicate conditions are worsening; numbers above 50 indicate conditions are improving), they all rose from three months ago. In particular, about half of respondents thought conditions were unchanged in the sales volume, equity finance, and debt finance markets.

“This global downturn has led to the most challenging economic conditions in at least five decades, and the apartment industry is suffering like other industries," noted Mark Obrinsky, NMHC's Chief Economist. "Capital remains difficult to obtain, and the sharp and continuing drop in employment, in particular, is sapping demand for apartments in markets throughout the country."

“Interestingly,” he continued, “despite considerable media focus on the “shadow rental” market, only a slim majority of respondents noted greater competition from condos and single-family rentals than in previous years.”

The Market Tightness Index, which measures changes in occupancy rates and/or rents, rose to 16 from 11 last quarter. Nevertheless, 73 percent of respondents said markets were looser (meaning higher vacancy and/or lower rents). While this was the seventh straight quarter in which the index has been below 50, the low reading may partially represent normal seasonal weakness.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index.

It is common in a recession for apartment vacancies to rise, as households double up by moving in with a friend or family member. However an added factor in this recession is all the single family homes being offered as rentals. This is possible additional competition for apartments:

In a special fifth question to NMHC’s Quarterly Survey, one-third (33 percent) said such competition [from condos and single-family rentals] was unchanged. Another four percent thought there was less competition, and 11 percent don’t consider condos and single-family rentals to be significant competition for apartments in their markets. A slightly majority, 52 percent, did report more competition from condos and single-family rentals than in previous years.

Competition from condos and single-family rentals probably depends on location.

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2009 11:46:00 PM

For those interested in the legal issues surrounding the Chrysler bankruptcy, here are a couple of posts from attorney Steven Jakubowski.

First, an overview of situation and Chrysler balance sheet:

Part I: Assessing The Financial Carnage

Second, a discussion of some of the legal issues:

Part II: Testing The Limits Of Section 363 Sales

Jakubowski concludes:

So, who will win? Really, only the true speculator and/or holder of Chrysler credit default swaps will (and perhaps Fiat if they--unlike their predecessors--can make it work), as my first post on the financial carnage at Chrysler demonstrates. My guess is that after much briefing, discovery, and expedited litigation over the next 60 days, Judge Gonzalez will show enough angst to worry both sides that they stand to lose, thus resulting in a compromise that settles the matter and allows the transaction to go forward. But with all Chrysler plants and operations now idled pending a final sale, the pressure to get the deal consummated and return people to work will be so overwhelming that it's hard to imagine Judge Gonzalez not approving the transaction in some form that's acceptable to everyone (except perhaps the dissenting lenders).

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2009 08:49:00 PM

Hat tip to several - thanks! Note: Victorville is east of Los Angeles at the southern edge of the Mojave desert.

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2009 08:34:00 PM

From Bloomberg: U.S. Stress Test Results Delayed as Early Conclusions Debated

The Federal Reserve will postpone the release of stress tests on the biggest U.S. banks while executives debate preliminary findings with examiners ... The results, originally scheduled for publication on May 4, now may not be revealed until toward the end of next week ... A new release date may be announced as soon as tomorrow, they said.

Note that President Obama announced today that GMAC would be receiving government aide (as part of Chrysler deal, GMAC will takeover all financing of Chrysler vehicles). GMAC is one of the 19 banks undergoing stress tests.

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2009 05:54:00 PM

From CNBC: US May Release Stress Test Results for Specific Banks

U.S. officials are leaning toward announcing the "stress test" results of individual banks next week instead of just summary results ...

The plan on exactly how to release the results "is not very far along," the source said, adding that regulators are looking to disclose a lot of supervisory information about banks that is usually kept confidential.

Transparency is important. It seems the basic principle should be: Banks that require public support should disclose the details of the stress tests to the public.

If a bank does not want to disclose details of the stress test - no problem, they are a private enterprise. But shouldn't they immediately return any TARP money and stop using any special Fed/FDIC/Treasury liquidity programs?