by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2009 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 356 thousand. This is slightly below the upwardly revised rate of 358 thousand in February.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Note the Red columns for 2009. This is the lowest sales for March since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963. (NSA, 34 thousand new homes were sold in March 2009; the previous low was 36 thousand in March 1982).

As the graph indicates, sales in March 2009 are substantially worse than the previous years.

The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales have fallen off a cliff.

Sales of new one-family houses in March 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 356,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 0.6 percent (±19.0%)* below the revised February rate of 358,000 and is 30.6 percent (±10.7%) below the March 2008 estimate of 513,000.

And one more long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

There were 10.7 months of supply in March - significantly below the all time record of 12.5 months of supply set in January.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 311,000. This represents a supply of 10.7 months at the current sales rate.

The final graph shows new home inventory.

Note that new home inventory does not include many condos (especially high rise condos), and areas with significant condo construction will have much higher inventory levels.

Although sales were at a March record low, there are positives in this report - especially considering the upward revisions for previous months. It appears the months-of-supply has peak, and there is a reasonable chance that new home sales has bottomed for this cycle - however any recovery in sales will be modest because of the huge overhang of existing homes for sale. I'll have more soon.

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2009 08:36:00 AM

From CNBC: Ford Loss Narrower than Expected

Ford Motors posted a smaller-than-expected first-quarter loss and said it was on track to at least break even in 2011 and did not expect to seek U.S. government loans ...

"We are really turning the tide in North America," Mulally said, adding that the industry may have hit bottom.

In response to that, Ford will increase production in the U.S. by 25 percent in the second quarter, he added.

Ford is probably being helped by the threat of bankruptcy at GM and Chrysler. At the same time Ford is increasing production, GM is considering shutting down factories for several weeks - so I wouldn't read too much into the Ford increase in production.

Meanwhile, durable goods orders were down in March, the seventh decline in the past eight months.

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2009 01:07:00 AM

A late night thread ...

Here is the letter from Cuomo to Congress today (2.0 MB PDF). And a Bloomberg discussion:

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2009 10:09:00 PM

From Floyd Norris at the NY Times: Subprime Loans, Corporate-Style, Will Fuel Defaults

It appears that defaults on leveraged loans and corporate bonds will soon rise to levels not seen since the Great Depression.
...
The default rate on leveraged loans and speculative grade bonds is rising rapidly. “We expect the default rate to get to the range of 14 percent by the end of the year,” said Kenneth Emery, a senior vice president of Moody’s. That compares to peak default rates of 10 to 12 percent during the last two recessions ...

How did we get into this mess? The story is remarkably similar to the tale of subprime mortgages.

Just another area with rapidly rising defaults. Norris also discusses toggle-PIKs (kind of like Option ARMs for corporations).

Note: PIK stands for Payment-in-kind (i.e. pay interest with more debt). These were used in the '80s LBO craze with predictable results (high defaults). Toggle means the borrower has the choice of paying in cash or PIK.

There were negatively amortizing loans everywhere: Option ARMs for homeowners, toggle PIKs for corporations, and of course interest reserves for Construction & Development loans (always common, but are blowing up on lenders).

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2009 07:10:00 PM

From Brian on AmEx Conference Call:

They expect to see writeoff rates climb from 8.5% to 10.5-11.0% in Q2 and up another 50 BP in Q3 and flattening out in Q4. Part of the driver of writeoff rates is their denominator is falling fairly quickly as charge volumes decline (denominator for CC cos will drop faster than for mortgages and other loan categories). They are assuming 9.7% unemployment in December 09.

They are seeing some improvement in early stage DQ and roll rates. There is probably some seasonality involved, but they also think that there is some non seasonal improvement. 30DQ increase for last 4 Q’s (starting with Q2 08) are +10BP, +60BP, +80BP, +40BP – so it isn’t going down, it’s just another second derivative thing.

And some CC comments:

Analyst: American Express has more exposure as we all know in California and Florida and some of the housing states where you have higher income as well and I think credit maybe started to go bad in the fourth quarter of '07, maybe a little bit ahead of the competition because of your exposure in some of those states, and as you looked closely and I think tightened sooner than others did because of that, when you're looking at your roll rates improving and understanding there's seasonality and it's too early to get too constructive on that, but are you seeing signs of improvement in more so in states that went bad earlier because of the tightening? You know, where are you seeing that improvement?

AmEx: I would say that early in the cycle I think that housing was a significant driver of higher delinquencies and writeoff rates and we certainly did see that in states that had larger drops in housing. However, at this juncture, I really think that unemployment has taken over as the primary driver of delinquency and writeoff rates, so I think that's what we will need to see for a real turn. I think stabilization in the housing market will be important. I think consumer confidence will be critically important, people have to feel comfortable that we are going to retain their job and when those things start to happen, I think is when we will really start to see some notable improvements.
emphasis added