by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2009 08:25:00 PM

In Looking for the Sun, I suggested there might be three areas to look for "rays of sunshine in a very dark season": housing starts, new home sales, and auto sales.

Just like for housing starts and new home sales, it is way too early to call a bottom for auto sales - but it does look like vehicle sales increased in March on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the historical vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for March (light vehicle sales of 9.86 million SAAR from AutoData Corp).

Note: this graph includes a small number of heavy vehicle sales to compare to the BEA.

From the WSJ: Auto Makers See a Ray of Hope

The annualized sales pace ... came in at 9.86 million vehicles, well below the 16 million or more the industry typically logged a few years ago, but up from February's pace of 9.12 million.

"I believe we are in a bottoming process for the industry," Bob Carter, a group vice president at Toyota Motor Corp., said in a conference call. ...

Michael DiGiovanni, the top sales analyst at General Motors Corp., said he expects a "very, very gradual pickup" in vehicle sales in the second quarter. He cited "the first signs of brightening" in the market. ...

Even if this is the bottom for auto sales (way too early to call), the pickup will probably be very sluggish - especially considering the grim unemployment news and continuing financial crisis.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2009 06:09:00 PM

From Reuters: Moody's downgraded $1.76 trln U.S. corp debt in Q1

... Moody's Investors Service downgrading an estimated $1.76 trillion of debt, a record high ...

The downgrades included a record number to the lowest rating categories, signaling the approach of the worst defaults since at least World War Two ...

"The most prominent new driving force behind credit rating reductions would be deterioration of commercial real estate," [Moody's chief economist John Lonski] said. ...

Moody's has forecast that the U.S. default rate will peak around 14.5 percent in November.
emphasis added

Hopefully the bank stress tests have all these defaults factored in ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2009 05:57:00 PM

From Reuters: Credit card charge-offs hit record high -Moody's (ht Brad)

Credit card write-downs soared to record levels in February, representing an all-time high in the 20-year history of the Moody's Credit Card Index ....

Credit card charge-offs, the write-down of uncollectable debt, advanced decisively to 8.82 percent in February, marking the sixth consecutive month of increases. The level, is more than 300 basis points higher than a year ago.
...
[Moody's] predicts the charge-off rate index will peak at about 10.5 percent in the first half of 2010, assuming a coincident unemployment rate peak at 10 percent.

Moody's reported the charge-off rate at 5.59% in February 2008, and 4.51% in February 2007.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2009 04:04:00 PM

First, the market graph from Doug ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.


This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the Case-Shiller Composite 10 house price index.

The percentage change is the month-to-month change annualized.

It is important to remember this clear seasonal pattern when looking at the Case-Shiller data.

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2009 03:03:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Posted with permission.

Credit: Buzz Potamkin in Animation World Magazine

See: The Macro Economy's Impact on Animation: Will Wile E. Coyote Dodge the Anvil?

"Economists and commentators are increasingly citing Wile E. Coyote to explain the macro economy, with Nobel-laureate Paul Krugman first hoisting the anvil in 2007. Cartoon image courtesy of Warner Bros. Animation. Graphs courtesy of Project X."