by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2007 03:27:00 PM

From the San Diego Union: Lenders told foreclosure picture grim

Mortgage professionals who are struggling with a national spike in residential foreclosure rates were warned yesterday to expect more of the same in 2007.

Unemployment, mortgage fraud and speculative buying are among the factors behind the recent surge in filings, experts said at a conference of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

And this year $1 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages are due to reset before Dec. 31.

“This is really a wild card,” said Rick Sharga of the Irvine firm RealtyTrac. “We don't have a precedent.”

Record inventories (see previous post) and rising foreclosures in 2007 is two of the keys to my 2007 housing predictions.

Mortgage attorney Daniel D. Phelan echoed Sharga's concerns.

“I personally think we are at the beginning of this cycle,” he said. “It is going to get worse before it gets better.”

The following graph shows Notices of Default (NOD) by year in California since 1992.

Click on graph for larger image.

Home mortgage loans in California went into default last quarter at the highest rate in more than eight years, according to the DataQuick Information Systems research firm. Lenders sent notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, to 37,273 California homeowners during the fourth quarter.

by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2007 12:28:00 PM

From the Chicago Tribune: Canceled contracts masked glut of homes, economist says

Housing analyst David Seiders told Chicago-area builders Thursday that the federal estimate of 3.5 million homes for sale at the end of 2006 is "grossly understated."

"There is a big inventory overhang out there, and it's bigger than anybody understands," he said.

In an annual forecast on the local industry in Addison, Seiders, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, cited the high level of sales contract cancellations in 2006. It created a snag in the recordkeeping, so many homes marked as sales in government data ended up back on the market too late to be counted as inventory, he said.

"Cancellation rates more than doubled between the end of 2005 and the end of 2006, meaning that net sales for the year nationally may be down 65 percent."

Caroline Baum reported on this issue last September: Think Housing's Stabilized? See Cancellations

Of course Seiders thinks the bottom is near:

But Seiders was not all gloom, saying the market is probably at the year's low spot right now. He expects slight improvement at midyear.

by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2007 12:20:00 AM

"We're a little more disappointed than two weeks ago. For President's Day weekend we had good sales, but we didn't have anywhere near the bump up that we normally see. That's disappointing."
Robert Toll, Chief Executive, Toll Brothers

From AP: Toll Brothers 1Q Profit Falls 67 Percent

Alex Barron, an analyst with JMP Securities in San Francisco, said he wasn't surprised that Toll's comments have taken a more sober tone.

"Now, he's sounding a bit more concerned and depressed," he said. "You can't have five years of a good time and fix everything in a few quarters."

by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2007 08:42:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Subprime Mortgage Derivatives Extend Drop on Moody's Reviews

The perceived risk of owning low- rated subprime mortgage bonds rose to a record for a fifth day after Moody's Investors Service said it may cut the loan servicing ratings of five lenders.

An index of credit-default swaps linked to 20 securities rated BBB-, the lowest investment grade, and sold in the second half of 2006 today fell 5.6 percent to 74.2, according to Markit Group Ltd. It's down 24 percent since being introduced Jan. 18, meaning an investor would pay more than $1.12 million a year to protect $10 million of bonds against default, up from $389,000.

Graph from Markit:

The BBB- rated portions of ABX contracts are ``going to zero,'' said Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, a securities brokerage in Darien, Connecticut. ``It's a self- perpetuating spiral, where as subprime companies tighten lending standards they create even more defaults'' by removing demand from the housing market and hurting home prices, he said.

by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2007 10:43:00 AM

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending Feb. 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 332,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 359,000. The 4-week moving average was 328,000, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 326,750.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the four moving average weekly unemployment claims since 1968. Although the four week moving average has recently been trending upwards, the level is still fairly low and not a concern.

Also, from the Conference Board today: Help-Wanted Advertising Index Dips Two Points

The Conference Board Help-Wanted Advertising Index — a key measure of job offerings in major newspapers across America — declined two points in January. The Index now stands at 32. It was 38 one year ago.

Although both claims and the help-wanted index were slightly weaker than expected, there is nothing indicating a significant slowing of the labor market.