by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 08:37:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 217,500.

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.

The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November. From September to November, the index for shelter increased 0.2 percent. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the same 2-month period and the food index increased 0.1 percent. Other indexes which increased over the 2 months ending in November include household furnishings and operations, communication, and personal care. In contrast, the indexes for lodging away from home, recreation, and apparel decreased over the same 2-month period.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The food index increased 2.6 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 08:01:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 236,000 initial claims last week.

8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -1.7.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 03:59:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in November, unchanged from October’s preliminary pace and down 1.7% from last November’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this November’s lower business-day count relative to last November.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 1.9% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to report November existing home sales on Friday. The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million in October.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 01:18:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained soft in November

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month remained well below the 50 level at 45.3 (a score over 50 indicates billings growth). This marked the 13th consecutive month of declining billings at architecture firms, and the 35th month of a score below 50 out of the last 38. Inquiries into new projects only increased modestly this month, and the value of newly signed design contracts continued to soften. Until work in the pipeline starts to pick back up, firms are unlikely to see a significant increase in their billings.

While business conditions at architecture firms have been soft in most sectors this year, the Midwest remained a bright spot in November. Billings increased at firms located in that region for the third consecutive month, and more firms reported growth this month than last month. However, billings continued to decline at firms located in all other regions of the country, particularly at firms located in the Northeast and the West. Firms of all specializations also saw billings continue to contract in November, although fewer firms with multifamily residential and institutional specializations reported declines than last month.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added

• Northeast (43.1); Midwest (52.3); South (46.1); West (43.6)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (45.2); institutional (47.6); multifamily residential (46.6)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 45.3 in November, down from 47.6 in October.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

This index has indicated contraction for 36 of the last 38 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2026.

Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 40 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 10:15:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

First, California reports seasonally adjusted sales and some measures of inventory. From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales reach three-year high in November, C.A.R. reports

Sales increased 1.9 percent from October, rising from 282,590 to 287,940 in November. Compared with a year earlier, November sales were up 2.6 percent from a revised 280,530.

In November, sales in these markets were down 7.1% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 1.5% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates inched up last week following the FOMC meeting, as investors interpreted the comments to signal that we are near the end of this rate cutting cycle. As a result, mortgage applications declined slightly,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume typically drops off quickly at the end of the year, and this shifts the mix of the business, with the refinance share reaching 59 percent last week, the highest level since September. However, refinance activity has remained mostly the same for the past month as rates continue to hold at around the same narrow range.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.38 percent from 6.33 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 13% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September.

by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 08:07:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 12:25:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 I reviewed home inventory and sales. I noted that the key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply (almost back to pre-pandemic levels), and sales are depressed and tracking last year (sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 1.3% year-over-year (YoY) in September and will likely be about the same year-over-year in the October report compared to September (based on other data).
...
In the January report, the Case-Shiller National index was up 4.2%, in February up 4.0%, in March up 3.4%, in April report up 2.8%, in May up 2.3%, in June up 1.9% in July up 1.6%, August up 1.6% and in September up 1.3% (a steady decline in the YoY change).

And the September Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in July, August and September. July closing prices include some contracts signed in May. So, not only is this trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 10:33:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.5 percent from October 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, and up 3.5 percent from October 2024. ... The August 2025 to September 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.2 percent to up 0.1 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.1% in October.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.6% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in October were below expectations and the previous two months were revised down.

A weak report.

by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 09:23:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was slightly above expectations, however August and September were revised down by 33,000 - and the initial October report indicates 105,000 job lost (mostly Federal Government jobs lost due to DOGE deferred resignation program). The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%.

Earlier: November Employment Report: 64 thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate; October Lost 105 thousand Jobs

Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.5% YoY in November, down from 3.7% YoY in October. 

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in November to 5.49 million from 4.58 million in September.  This is well above the pre-pandemic levels and the highest levels since mid-2021.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.7% from 8.0% in September. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is well above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.91 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.81 million in September.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was slightly above expectations, however August and September were revised down by 33,000 - and the initial October report indicates 105,000 job lost (mostly Federal Government jobs lost due to DOGE deferred resignation program).  The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%.

This was a weak employment report.  

by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS: Employment Situation

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government continued to lose jobs.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and the change for September was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported. Due to the recent federal government shutdown, this is the first publication of October data and thus there are no revisions for October this month.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 64 thousand in November.  Private payrolls increased by 697 thousand, and public payrolls decreased 5 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 6 thousand).

Payrolls for August and September were revised down by 33 thousand, combined.  The economy has only added 100 thousand jobs since April (7 months).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In November, the year-over-year change was 0.03 million jobs.  

Year-over-year employment growth has slowed sharply.



The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.5% in November, from 62.4% in September (no October data). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was decreased to 59.6% from 59.7% in September (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.



The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was increased to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September.  

This was sligthly above consensus expectations, however, August and September payrolls were revised down by 33,000 combined - and the initial October estimate was -105,000.

Overall another weak report, although there are technical issues that likely make this data less accurate due to government shutdown.

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2025 07:36:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Volatility Risks Increase

Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the narrow range that's been intact since early September. ... If unemployment comes in lower than expected, rates would likely face upward pressure, potentially challenging the upper boundary of the recent range. On the other hand, a weaker/higher result should keep rates well within the range, perhaps near the lower boundary. [30 year fixed 6.29%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 50,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for October will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2025 12:38:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-December provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Note that we are still missing some key pieces of data due to the government shutdown, such as housing starts and new home sales.

The key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply (almost back to pre-pandemic levels), and sales are depressed and tracking last year (sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure, although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales since most homeowners have substantial equity and low mortgage rates. It now appears likely that existing home prices will be mostly unchanged year-over-year nationally by the end of 2025.

Realtor.com reports in the November 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 1.7% year-over-year in November. And active listings were up 12.6% year-over-year.

Homebuyers found more options in November, as the number of actively listed homes rose 12.6% compared to the same time last year. While this marks the 25th consecutive month of year-on-year inventory gains, active listing growth has slowed in each of the past six months (down from ~30% peak YoY growth in May and June). The number of homes for sale topped 1 million for the seventh consecutive month and remains close to midsummer levels. Still, nationwide November inventory is 11.7% below typical 2017–19 levels.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2025 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, up from 38 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 39 in December.

Here are the readings for the three HMI indices in December:

• Current sales conditions increased one point to 42.

• Sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 52.

• Traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 26.

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 40% of builders reported cutting prices in December, marking the second consecutive month the share has been at 40% or higher since May 2020. It was 41% in November. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in December, down from the 6% rate in November. The use of sales incentives was 67% in December, the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

The index has been below 50 for twenty consecutive months.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 13.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 15.3%), and down 5.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 4.1%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, however inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of December 12th, inventory was at 775 thousand (7-day average), compared to 795 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2025 06:15:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 14, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.8, down from 18.7.

• 10:00 AM, The December NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 39, up from 38 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little changed (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $57.44 per barrel and Brent at $61.12 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $71, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 20% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.87 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $2.98 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.11 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2025 10:23:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 12.6% YoY, but still down 11.7% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: U.S. Market Update (Week Ending Dec. 6, 2025)

• Active inventory climbed 12.6% year over year

Inventory growth continues to be driven more by homes lingering on the market than by new listings. With roughly 1.01 million homes for sale last week, the 32nd consecutive week above the million-mark, buyers have a wider selection, while sellers face mounting competition. Importantly, this week bucked the recent trend of slowing inventory growth, and the annual increase in homes for sale was larger than the previous week.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—fell by 7.4% year over year

New listings fell again this week compared to the same week in 2024, accelerating from the previous week’s decline. New listings are up 5.5% year to date and have shown modest positive growth for most of the fall, suggesting that the overall trend toward more new listings coming on the market could be shifting this winter.

• The median listing price fell 1.2% year over year

The median list price dropped compared to the same week one year ago, though the retreat has moderated closer to year-long trends. Adjusting for home size, the price per square foot fell 1.1% year over year, dropping for the 14th consecutive week. The price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the combination of slower sales, rising inventory, and increased price cuts is now clearly reflected in lower listing values, indicating that the market is rebalancing toward buyers.

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

• Mortgage Rates: The New Normal

• Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

• December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2025 08:11:00 AM

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released.

The key economic reports this week are the November Employment report, October Retail Sales, November CPI, and November Existing Home Sales.

For manufacturing, the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week.


----- Monday, December 15th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.8, down from 18.7.

10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 39, up from 38 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, December 16th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 50,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%.

There were 119,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 4.4%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

----- Wednesday, December 17th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, December 18th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 236,000 initial claims last week.

8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -1.7.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.

----- Friday, December 19th -----
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December).