by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 02:00:00 PM

From the Federal Reserve: The October 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

he October 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the third quarter of 2025.

Regarding loans to businesses over the third quarter, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes.2 Banks also reported, on balance, stronger demand for C&I loans from large and middle-market firms and basically unchanged demand from small firms. Furthermore, banks reported generally unchanged standards and demand for most commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories.

For loans to households, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and stronger demand for residential mortgage loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) on balance. For consumer loans, standards remained basically unchanged for credit card and other consumer loans and eased for auto loans. Meanwhile, demand remained basically unchanged for credit card and other consumer loans and weakened for auto loans.

The October SLOOS included a set of special questions inquiring about the likelihood of approving C&I and credit card loan applications in comparison with the beginning of the year—by firm size and trade exposure levels for C&I loans and by borrower risk for credit card loans. Banks reported being more likely to approve C&I loan applications from both large and small firms with low trade exposures and less likely to approve C&I loan applications from firms of all sizes with high trade exposures. Banks also reported being more likely to approve credit card applications from super-prime and prime borrowers but less likely to approve applications from near-prime or subprime borrowers.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts.

This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021, but has picked up slightly recently.

The left graph is from 1990 to 2014.  The right graph is from 2015 to Q3 2025.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 10:52:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.9% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent dipped by 0.8% in October, and now stands at $1,381. This was the third consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’re now in the midst of the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we’ll continue to see further modest rent declines to close out the year.

Realtor.com: 26th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

September 2025 marks the 26th straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $36, or -2.1%, year over year.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.7% in October, down from 49.1% in September. The employment index was at 46.0%, up from 45.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 49.4%, up from 48.9%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.7% October 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 61.9 percent reported in September. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.9 percent, up 1.7 percentage points compared to the 46.2 percent recorded in September. The Employment Index registered 46 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from September’s figure of 45.3 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October..  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was weak and prices very strong.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 16.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 17.9%), and down 6.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 6.5%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 31st, inventory was at 857 thousand (7-day average), compared to 868 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2025 06:13:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 2, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 49.2, up from 49.1. 

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September.

• At 2:00 PM, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for October.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 11 and DOW futures are up 58 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $60.98 per barrel and Brent at $64.77 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $70, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 13% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.00 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.06 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.06 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2025 10:04:00 AM

Here is another update on lumber prices.

SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

On October 31, 2025, LBR was at $539.50 per 1,000 board feet, down 3% from a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.

The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  

Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak

• Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key (missing) report this week is the October employment report.

Other key indicators include October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and October vehicle sales.

Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown.

----- Monday, November 3rd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 49.2, up from 49.1. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for October.

All day: Light vehicle sales for October.

The consensus is for sales of 15.5million SAAR, down from 16.4 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Tuesday, November 4th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

----- Wednesday, November 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 25,000 jobs added, up from 32,000 lost in September.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a increase to 51.0 from 50.0.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Thursday, November 6th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

----- Friday, November 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2025 01:58:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [October 31st estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

we estimate that GDP has grown about 2.2% annualized so far this year and 3.3% in Q3. [October 15th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on October 27, unchanged from October 16 after rounding. After last Thursday’s existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast for third-quarter annualized real residential investment growth increased from -4.6 percent to -4.4 percent.[October 27th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2025 10:10:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased 0.04% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in September. This is the sixth consecutive with a small MoM SA decline.

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.0% in September, down from up 1.3% YoY in August. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, and previously bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. The YoY change in September is a new cycle low. ...

As of September, 19 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in New Mexico (-3.8%), Arizona (-3.6%), Florida (-2.8%), and Texas (-2.6%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 182 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 6 of the 9 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.

Florida has the largest number of CBSAs on the list and Texas has the 2nd most.

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2025 08:11:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Oct. 25

• AActive inventory climbed 14.6% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 14.6% year-over-year, marking the 103th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 26th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer, and homeowners aren’t eager to sell.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—up 5.9% year over year

New listings were up 5.9% last week compared with the same period a year ago, extending the streak of accelerating growth to three weeks.

• The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price remained flat compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, the price per square foot fell 0.8% year over year, dropping for the eighth consecutive week. The price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2025 07:20:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September.

• At 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 42.0, up from 40.6 in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2025 02:25:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 October

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 October. ...

19-25 October 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 66.6% (-3.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$166.36 (-1.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$110.78 (-5.3%)

Among the Top 25 Markets, Tampa reported the steepest occupancy drop (-24.2% to 63.7%), due to the elevated displacement demand period that followed Hurricane Milton in 2024.

New Orleans posted the largest decreases in ADR (-35.3% to US$195.39) and RevPAR (-41.9% to US$132.94). The market’s performance was affected by a comparison against Taylor Swift’s 2024 Eras Tour dates.

Overall, 21 of the Top 25 Markets saw an occupancy decline.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2025 11:47:00 AM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: September 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

Driven largely by slower midweek volumes, the destination saw a ‐8.8% YoY decrease in visitation, hosting approximately 3.1M visitors.

Las Vegas convention attendance reached roughly 428k in September, down ‐18.7% YoY, reflecting in part the absence of the quadrennial MINExpo (45k attendees) that was held last September, and the calendar shift for Oracle CloudWorld (30k attendees) which took place in October this year vs. September last year.

Hotel occupancy of 78.7% (down ‐5.2 pts) and ADR of $191 (‐2.9% YoY) translated to monthly RevPAR of $150 (‐9.0% YoY).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 8.8% compared to last September.  Visitor traffic was down 11.1% compared to September 2019.

Year-to-date (YTD) visitor traffic is down 9.3% compared to the same period in 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was down 18.7% compared to September 2024 and down 6.7% compared to September 2019.  

YTD convention traffic is down 12.3% compared to 2019.

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2025 08:52:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the August Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.6% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.0% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $446,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.8% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.1% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in August. The real National index has decreased for 8 consecutive months.

It has now been 39 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2025 07:51:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will not be released.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2025 (advance estimate) will not be released.

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2025 02:00:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting, and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2025 10:50:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September

Excerpt:

Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.57%, up from 0.56% August. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.54% in September 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.54%, up from 0.53% in August. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.52% in September 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic./blockquote>

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows No Change in September

Pending home sales in September showed no change from the prior month and fell 0.9% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. The report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales under contract. ...

Month-Over-Month
No change in pending home sales
Gains in the Northeast and South; declines in the Midwest and West

Year Over Year
0.9% decrease in pending home sales
Gains in the Northeast and South; declines in the Midwest and West
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates decreased for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate down to 6.3 percent, its lowest level since September 2024. This recent decline in rates spurred the second consecutive week of increased refinance activity, driven mainly by conventional refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The ARM share of applications, which had been trending higher, dipped below 10 percent last week, as lower rates prompted more borrowers to choose fixed rate loans. Additionally, the average loan size of a refinance application remained elevated at $393,900, as borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be sensitive to rate movements. Purchase applications increased compared to a holiday-shortened week across most loan types. However, USDA applications fell more than 26 percent, impacted by the ongoing government shutdown.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.30 percent from 6.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 20% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.