by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.7% in October, down from 49.1% in September. The employment index was at 46.0%, up from 45.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 49.4%, up from 48.9%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.7% October 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 61.9 percent reported in September. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.9 percent, up 1.7 percentage points compared to the 46.2 percent recorded in September. The Employment Index registered 46 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from September’s figure of 45.3 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October..  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was weak and prices very strong.