by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.3% year-over-year in May

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2025 08:11:00 AM

This will be a light week for economic data.

The key report this week is the June Trade Deficit.

----- Monday, August 4th -----
2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for July.

----- Tuesday, August 5th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $67.6 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $71.5 Billion the previous month.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for July.   The consensus is for a reading of 51.5, up from 50.8.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Wednesday, August 6th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, August 7th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 218 thousand last week.

----- Friday, August 8th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 03:36:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of July 26

• Active inventory climbed 23.7% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 23.7% year over year, slightly lower than last week. This represents the 90th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1.1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the 12th week in a row over the million-listing threshold and the highest inventory level since November 2019. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 5.8% year over year

New listings rose again last week on an annual basis by 5.8% compared with the same period last year. This marks a slight slowdown from last week, in which new listings grew by 7.2% year over year, but is roughly in line with new listing growth throughout this June and July.

• The median list price was flat year over year

The median list price posted its first week without year-over-year growth (0%) since May. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.5% year over year and has not fallen in nearly two years, suggesting that the mix of homes for sale is starting to favor smaller and less expensive inventory.

With inventory climbing, and sales depressed, months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 putting downward pressure on house prices in an increasing number of areas.

by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 12:00:00 PM

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:

Construction spending during June 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,136.2 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,143.9 billion. The June figure is 2.9 percent below the June 2024 estimate of $2,199.8 billion.
emphasis added

Private spending decreased and public spending increased slightly:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,621.9 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised May estimate of $1,630.2 billion. ...

In June, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $514.3 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised May estimate of $513.7 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential (red) spending is 9.7% below the peak in 2022.

Private non-residential (blue) spending is 6.6% below the peak in December 2023.

Public construction spending (orange) is at a new peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 6.2%. Private non-residential spending is down 4.0% year-over-year. Public spending is up 5.2% year-over-year.

This was well below consensus expectations; however, spending for the previous two months was revised up slightly.

by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 10:16:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.0% in July, down from 49.0% in June. The employment index was at 43.4%, down from 45.0% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.1%, up from 46.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48% July 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the sixth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.1 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in June. The July reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 1.1 percentage points higher than June’s figure of 50.3 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 64.8 percent, down 4.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 69.7 percent reported in June. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.8 percent, up 2.5 percentage points compared to the 44.3 percent recorded in June. The Employment Index registered 43.4 percent, down 1.6 percentage points from June’s figure of 45 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster delivery performance after seven consecutive months in expansion (or ‘slower’) territory. The reading of 49.3 percent is down 4.9 percentage points from the 54.2 percent recorded in June. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 48.9 percent, down 0.3 percentage point compared to June’s reading of 49.2 percent.

“The New Export Orders Index reading of 46.1 percent is 0.2 percentage point lower than the reading of 46.3 percent registered in June. The Imports Index registered 47.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than June’s reading of 47.4 percent.”

Spence continues, “In July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate, with declines in the Supplier Deliveries and Employment Indexes contributing as the biggest factors in the 1-percentage point loss of the Manufacturing PMI®.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in July.  This was below the consensus forecast of 49.8. New export orders were still weak; employment was weak and prices very strong.

by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 09:13:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations and May and June payrolls were revised down by 258,000 combined.  A weak report. The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 4.2%.

NOTE: Last month I noted that state and local government education hiring was up sharply - probably due to a data collection, timing or seasonal adjustment issue.   That increase was revised away for June. 

Earlier: July Employment Report: 73 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in July to 83.4% from 83.5% in June.

The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.4% from 80.7% the previous month.

Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% YoY in July, up from 3.8% YoY in June.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in July. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.68 million from 4.47 million in June.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.9% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.83 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.65 million the previous month.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through July 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 54 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

The streak barely survived the large downward revisions to May and June payrolls!  

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
	Year Ended	Streak, Months
1	2020	113
2	Current, N/A	551
3	1990	48
4	2007	46
5	1979	45
6 tie	1943	33
6 tie	1986	33
6 tie	2000	33
9	1967	29
10	1995	25
1Currrent Streak

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations and May and June payrolls were revised down by 258,000 combined.  The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 4.2%.

This was a weak employment report.  

by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS: Employment Situation

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July (+73,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July. Employment continued to trend up in health care and in social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.
...
Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 73 thousand in July.  Private payrolls increased by 83 thousand, and public payrolls decreased 10 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 12 thousand).

Payrolls for May and June were revised down by 258 thousand, combined.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In July, the year-over-year change was 1.54 million jobs.  Year-over-year employment growth is slowing.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.2% in July, from 62.3% in June. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was decreased to 59.6% from 59.7% in June (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was increased to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June.

This was below consensus expectations and May and June payrolls were revised down by 258,000 combined.  

A weak report.

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 08:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for July.   The consensus is for 118,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2%.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.8, up from 49.0 in June. 

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending.

• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for July). 

• Late, Light vehicle sales for July from the BEA. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.2 million SAAR in July, up from 15.3 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 05:00:00 PM

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for 118,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2%. There were 147,000 jobs added in June, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.

Important: As I noted earlier, the large increase in seasonally adjusted education hiring in June was probably a seasonal adjustment issue. There will likely be payback in the July report, and it is possible we will see a seasonally adjusted decline in state and local education of 50 thousand or more for July.

From Goldman Sachs:

We forecast a 100k increase in payrolls in July. Big data indicators point to a rebound in private sector job growth, though to a still soft pace. ... We expect the unemployment rate to rebound to 4.2% based on the signal from other measures of labor market slack such as continuing jobless claims.
emphasis added

From BofA:

July NFP are likely to rise by 60k. State & local gov’t jobs should drop after spiking in June. Meanwhile, we think private payrolls will pick up to +85k because of the ongoing decline in initial claims. It is probably too early to see a big impact from immigration policy. But high continuing claims and unfavorable seasonals could be headwinds. ... The u-rate should rise to a still-benign 4.2%.

• ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 104,000 private sector jobs were added in July.  This was above consensus forecasts and suggests BLS reported job gains at consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report.

• ISM Surveys: Not available yet for July.

• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed fewer initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 230,000 in July compared to 246,000 in June.  This suggests fewer layoffs in July compared to June.

• Conclusion: Over the last 6 months, employment gains averaged 130 thousand per month.  The ADP report and unemployment claims suggest a decent month.  However, my guess is we will start to see the impact of policy - a little more hiring hesitancy - and I expect a hit from education hiring (SA), so I'll take the under for July.

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 02:42:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 26 July

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 26 July. ...

20-26 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 71.5% (-0.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.88 (-0.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$117.88 (-0.8%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will likely increase over the next week or two.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 11:58:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.20% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.0% in June, down from up 2.3% YoY in May. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ...

As of June, 32 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-5.4), West Virginia (-3.7%), Colorado (-2.9%), and Florida (-2.7%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 250 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. And 12 of the 30 cities are in Florida.

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 09:01:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through June 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 3.9% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 4.1% YoY in June, unchanged from 4.1% in May and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. 

3-month annualized change:

PCE Price Index: 2.5%
Core PCE Prices: 2.6%
Core minus Housing: 2.4%

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 08:35:00 AM

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, June 2025

Personal income increased $71.4 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.9 billion (0.3 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $69.5 billion in June. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.3 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for June increased 2.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The June PCE price index increased 2.6 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.3 percent YoY in May.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, up from 2.7 percent in May.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was at expectations and PCE was below expectations.

Inflation was slightly above expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 221,000.

The previous week was unrevised.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 08:37:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 230 thousand from 221 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays, June 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July.

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 03:36:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: June 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

Reflecting the broader backdrop of persistent economic uncertainty and weaker consumer confidence, compounded by a slower convention month, the destination saw a ‐11% YoY decline in visitation, hosting approximately 3.1M visitors.

Convention attendance was approx. 375k for the month (down ‐10.7%), reflecting in part out rotations of shows that were held elsewhere this year, including InfoComm (30k attendees) and Cisco Live (18k attendees).

Hotel occupancy of 78.7% (down ‐6.5 pts) and ADR of $164 (‐6.6% YoY) translated to monthly RevPAR below $129 (‐13.8% YoY).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 11.3% compared to last June.  Visitor traffic was down 14.2% compared to June 2019.

Year-to-date (YTD) visitor traffic is down 7.5% compared to the same period in 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was down 10.7% compared to June 2024 and down 27.1% compared to June 2019.  

YTD convention traffic is down 8.8% compared to 2019.

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 02:00:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Jeffrey R. Schmid. Voting against this action were Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting. Absent and not voting was Adriana D. Kugler.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 11:13:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the May Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10.5% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.9% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $442,000 today adjusted for inflation (47% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.0% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 2.2% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in May.

It has now been 36 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 0.8% Decrease in June

Pending home sales decreased by 0.8% in June from the prior month and 2.8% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales report. The Report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales under contract.

Northeast
2.1% increase month-over-month
Unchanged year-over-year

Midwest
0.8% decrease month-over-month
0.9% decrease year-over-year

South
0.7% decrease month-over-month
2.9% decrease year-over-year

West
3.9% decrease month-over-month
7.3% decrease year-over-year
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in July and August.

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. ...

Compared to the first quarter, the upturn in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an acceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by a downturn in investment.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 1.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the first quarter.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the first quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent.
emphasis added

PCE increased at a 1.4% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 4.6% rate. The advance Q2 GDP report, with 3.0% annualized increase, was above expectations.

I'll have more later ...