by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2025 07:44:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower to Start New Week

Mortgage rates didn't move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario versus last Friday. That makes this the 4th straight business day with a modest gain and it gets us back in line with the lowest rates since July 3rd.​ [30 year fixed 6.78%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Speech Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Opening Remarks, At the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference, Washington, D.C.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2025 01:57:00 PM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q2

Excerpt:

From the NMHC: Borrowing Conditions Continue to Improve While Most Respondents Report an Unchanged Market

The Market Tightness Index (54), Sales Volume Index (55) and Debt Financing Index (69) all came in above the breakeven level of 50, indicating improved conditions, while the Equity Financing Index remained just below 50 (48). Still, a majority of respondents for each of the four indexes reported unchanged conditions compared to April.

“Rent growth remains low in the South and West amidst a historic overhang of new supply, even though strong demand has kept absorptions high and occupancy stable,” noted NMHC’s Chief Economist and Senior Director of Research, Chris Bruen. “Meanwhile, tighter apartment conditions persist in the more supply-constrained Northeast and Midwest.”

“While high levels of political and economic uncertainty have kept some equity capital on the sidelines, survey respondents did report an uptick in transaction volume for the second consecutive quarter.”
...
• The Market Tightness Index came in at 54 this quarter – above the breakeven level of 50 – indicating tighter market conditions. Twenty-seven percent of respondents thought market conditions were tighter relative to three months ago, while 18% thought conditions had become looser. Slightly over half (54%) of respondents thought conditions were unchanged from April.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2025 10:22:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Goldman's Mid-Year Housing Outlook

A brief excerpt:

Last Friday, Goldman Sachs Senior economist Ronnie Walker wrote: Mid-Year Housing Outlook: Slowing Construction and Price Growth, Not Just for Multifamily

Here are a few brief excerpts and my comments (CR):

Goldman on existing home sales: “Sustained higher mortgage rates will continue to have their most pronounced impact on housing turnover. 87% of mortgage borrowers have interest rates below current market rates, and 66% have rates 2pp below market rates, strongly disincentivizing them from moving. As a result, we expect annual existing home sales of just 4.1mn, 23% below 2019 levels but in line with the pace of the last two years.”

CR: Here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q1 2025 showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013.

As of Q2, 71.3% of outstanding loans were under 5% (about 2%+ below current mortgage rates). These low existing mortgage rates make it financially difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 37.2% from the seasonal bottom in January.   Usually, inventory is up about 21% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal increase in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 28.2% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 30.0%), and down 10.8% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 11.0%). 

It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of July 18th, inventory was at 857 thousand (7-day average), compared to 847 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 7/20/2025 06:21:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of July 20, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 2 and DOW futures are down 33 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $67.34 per barrel and Brent at $69.28 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $81, and Brent was at $85 - so WTI oil prices are down about 17% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.47 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.38 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 7/20/2025 08:21:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.9% YoY, but still down 12.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of July 12

• Active inventory climbed 25.1% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 25.1% year over year, slowing slightly from the previous week. This represents the 88th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the 10th week in a row over the threshold and the highest inventory level since November 2019.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 1.3% year over year

New listings rose again last week on an annual basis by just 1.3% compared with the same period last year.

• The median list price was up 0.2% year over year

The median list price climbed again this week, but is still down 0.3% year to date. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.5% year over year. With inventory on the rise and more than 1 in 5 sellers cutting prices, the market continues to soften and shift toward more buyer favorability.

With inventory climbing, and sales depressed, months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 putting downward pressure on house prices in an increasing number of areas.

by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

• Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025?

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are June New and Existing Home Sales.

For manufacturing, the July Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, July 21st -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, July 22nd -----
8:30 AM: Speech Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Opening Remarks, At the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference, Washington, D.C.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

----- Wednesday, July 23rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.00 million SAAR, down from 4.03 million last month.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.92 million SAAR for June.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial and multi-family real estate).

----- Thursday, July 24th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 230 thousand from 221 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 650 thousand SAAR, up from 623 thousand in May.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

----- Friday, July 25th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 10.0% decrease in durable goods orders.

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 02:44:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to 2.2% q/q saar. [July 18th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

June single-family housing starts were weaker than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.9%. [July 18th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on July 18, unchanged from July 17 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -6.4 percent to -7.0 percent. [July 18th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 12:10:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.92 million in June, down 2.7% from May’s preliminary pace and down 0.3% from last June’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a modest YOY increase, with the SA/NSA difference reflecting the higher business day count this June compared to last June.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 1.9% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release June Existing Home sales on Wednesday, July 23rd at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.00 million SAAR, down from 4.03 million last month. Last year, the NAR reported sales in June 2024 at 3.93 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 09:11:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June

A brief excerpt:

Total housing starts in June were above expectations (due to volatile multi-family sector) and starts in April and May were revised up.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Total starts were down 0.5% in June compared to June 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 1.0% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 6.9% YTD and multi-family up 15.7% YTD.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,321,000. This is 4.6 percent above the revised May estimate of 1,263,000, but is 0.5 percent below the June 2024 rate of 1,327,000. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 883,000; this is 4.6 percent below the revised May figure of 926,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 414,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,397,000. This is 0.2 percent above the revised May rate of 1,394,000, but is 4.4 percent below the June 2024 rate of 1,461,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 866,000; this is 3.7 percent below the revised May figure of 899,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 478,000 in June.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased sharply month-over-month in June.   Multi-family starts were up 26.6% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) decreased in June and were down 10.0% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

Total housing starts in June were above expectations and starts in April and May were revised up.

I'll have more later …

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 07:57:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.300 million SAAR, up from 1.256 million SAAR in May.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for July).

• Also at 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for June 2025

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 03:16:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Click on graph for larger image.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

Imports were down 3% YoY in June and exports were also down 3% YoY.    

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 0.3% in June compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   Outbound traffic decreased 0.3% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

Early this year, importers rushed to beat the tariffs.  

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 01:11:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 12 July

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 12 July. ...

6-12 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 67.2% (-3.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$158.42 (-0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$106.39 (-3.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will likely increase over the next several weeks.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 33, up from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Edges Up in July

Builder confidence for future sales expectations received a slight boost in July with the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act but elevated interest rates and economic and policy uncertainty continue to act as headwinds for the housing sector.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 33 in July, up one point from June, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Builder sentiment has now been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.

“The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act provided a number of important wins for households, home builders and small businesses,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “While this new law should provide economic momentum after a disappointing spring, the housing sector has weakened in 2025 due to poor affordability conditions, particularly from elevated interest rates.”

Indeed, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 38% of builders reported cutting prices in July, the highest percentage since NAHB began tracking this figure on a monthly basis in 2022. This compares with 37% of builders who reported cutting prices in June, 34% in May and 29% in April. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in July, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 62% in July, unchanged from June.

“Single-family housing starts will post a decline in 2025 due to ongoing housing affordability challenges,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Single-family permits are down 6% on a year-to-date basis and builder traffic in the HMI is at a more than two-year low.”
...
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose one point in July to a level of 36 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 43. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point decline to 20, the lowest reading since end of 2022.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 45, the Midwest held steady at 41, the South dropped three points to 30 and the West declined three points to 25.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was at the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 08:35:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from June 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $720.1 billion, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from June 2024. ... The April 2025 to May 2025 percent change was unrevised from down 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.7% in June.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.9% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in June were above expectations and the previous two months were revised down slightly, combined.

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 229,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,500 to 235,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 229,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2025 07:02:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 235 thousand from 233 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of -0.5, up from -4.0.

• At 10:00 AM, The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 33, up from 32. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

• At 10:00 AM, Speech, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, A View of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook, At the Housing Partnership Network Symposium, Washington, D.C.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2025 02:34:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

A brief excerpt:

This is the third look at local markets in June. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, averaged 6.73% in April and 6.82% in May (slightly higher than for closed sales in May).
...
In June, sales in these markets were up 4.7% YoY. Last month, in May, these same markets were down 3.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were more working days in June 2025 (20) as in June 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than for the NSA data.
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.