by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 02:00:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 09:11:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May

A brief excerpt:

Total housing starts in May were below expectations; however, starts in March and April were revised up, combined.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Total starts were down 4.6% in May compared to May 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 1.5% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 7.1% YTD and multi-family up 14.5% YTD.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 08:32:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000. This is 9.8 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,392,000 and is 4.6 percent below the May 2024 rate of 1,316,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 924,000; this is 0.4 percent above the revised April figure of 920,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 316,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,393,000. This is 2.0 percent below the revised April rate of 1,422,000 and is 1.0 percent below the May 2024 rate of 1,407,000. Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate of 898,000; this is 2.7 percent below the revised April figure of 923,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 444,000 in May.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased sharply month-over-month in May.   Multi-family starts were up 4.1% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) increased slightly in May and were down 7.3% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery.

Total housing starts in May were below expectations; however, starts in March and April were revised up, combined.

I'll have more later …

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 248,000 to 250,000. The 4-week moving average was 245,500, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since August 19, 2023 when it was 246,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 240,250 to 240,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 245,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 13, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates decreased last week, driven by financial market volatility caused by current geopolitical conflict and ongoing tariff uncertainties. The 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.84 percent, its lowest level since April,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Even with lower average mortgage rates, applications declined over the week as ongoing economic uncertainty weighed on potential homebuyers’ purchase decisions.”

Added Kan, “Refinance activity declined for both conventional and government borrowers. VA applications, however, bucked the trend with a 2 percent increase in purchase applications and a slight increase in refinance applications. Additionally, the overall average loan size at $380,200, was the lowest since January 2025.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.84 percent from 6.93 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 14% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and is 10% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased and remains very low.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2025 07:56:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 250 thousand, up from 248 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for May. The consensus is for 1.370 million SAAR, up from 1.361 million SAAR in April.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Statement. The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at this meeting.

• Also at 2:00 PM, FOMC Projections This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2025 05:31:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Click on graph for larger image.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

Imports were down 11% YoY in May and exports were also down 11% YoY.    

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 0.8% in May compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   Outbound traffic decreased 0.9% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

Earlier this year, importers rushed to beat the tariffs.  Port traffic will likely be much slower for the remainder of this year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2025 12:18:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts

A brief excerpt:

This morning, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their monthly housing market index: Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012
...
There are several negatives for new home builders now. The NAHB lists the following: rising inventory levels (this is true for both new homes and existing homes that compete with new homes), price declines for existing home sales in a “growing number of markets”, buyer hesitancy due to “elevated mortgage rates and tariff and economic uncertainty”.

In addition, margins are being squeezed by rising costs (both material and labor), and price cuts. This will be a difficult period for homebuilders.

The following graph shows the NAHB HMI and single family starts since 1985.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2025 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 32, down from 34 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012

In a further sign of declining builder sentiment, the use of price incentives increased sharply in June as the housing market continues to soften.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in June, down two points from May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The index has only posted a lower reading twice since 2012 – in December 2022 when it hit 31 and in April 2020 at the start of the pandemic when it plunged more than 40 points to 30.

“Buyers are increasingly moving to the sidelines due to elevated mortgage rates and tariff and economic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “To help address affordability concerns and bring hesitant buyers off the fence, a growing number of builders are moving to cut prices.”

Indeed, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in June, the highest percentage since NAHB began tracking this figure on a monthly basis in 2022. This compares with 34% of builders who reported cutting prices in May and 29% in April. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in June, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 62% in June, up one percentage point from May.

“Rising inventory levels and prospective home buyers who are on hold waiting for affordability conditions to improve are resulting in weakening price growth in most markets and generating price declines for resales in a growing number of markets,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Given current market conditions, NAHB is forecasting a decline in single-family starts for 2025.”
...
All three of the major HMI indices posted losses in June. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points in June to a level of 35, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months dropped two points lower to 40 while the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point decline to 21, the lowest reading since November 2023.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 43, the Midwest moved one point higher to 41, the South dropped three points to 33 and the West declined four points to 28.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was well below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2025 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) fell 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in April. Manufacturing output ticked up 0.1 percent in May, driven by a gain of 4.9 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts; the index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3 percent. The index for mining increased 0.1 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.9 percent. At 103.6 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in May was 0.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.4 percent, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 77.4% is 2.2% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased to 103.6. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was below consensus expectations and the previous months were revised down.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2025 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from April to May (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.3 percent from May 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $715.4 billion, down 0.9 percent from the previous month, and up 3.3 percent rom May 2024. ... The March 2025 to April 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent to down 0.1 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was down 0.8% in May.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.4% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in May were below expectations and the previous two months were revised down.

A weak report.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2025 07:11:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Drift Slightly Higher to Start The Week

While there's been no shortage of political and geopolitical headlines over the past 2 business days, there hasn't been much by way of inspiration for the bond market. Bonds (and, thus, rates) have moved nonetheless.
...
Tomorrow's Retail Sales data is capable of causing volatility in either direction, depending on the outcome. Then on Wednesday, we'll hear from the Fed. While they will not be cutting rates at this meeting, they will be updating their rate outlook--something that frequently gets the market's attention. [30 year fixed 6.91%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in retail sales.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.7%.

• At 10:00 AM, The June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 36, up from 34 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2025 10:49:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

A brief excerpt:

The NAR is scheduled to release May existing home sales on Monday, June 23rd at 10:00 AM. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.03 million for May, up slightly from April and down slightly year-over-year.
...
In May, sales in these markets were down 4.3% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were down 3.4% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be higher than for the NSA data.
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.1% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 32.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.  

Usually, inventory is up about 18% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 33.1% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 32.2%), and down 12.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 13.0%). 

This is the highest level since 2019.

It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of June 13th, inventory was at 826 thousand (7-day average), compared to 809 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2025 06:24:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of June 15, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, up from -9.2.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 17 and DOW futures are down 134 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $75.49 per barrel and Brent at $76.72 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are down about 4% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.43 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.34 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2025 09:31:00 AM

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the July meeting, with the next rate cut in September, and a second rate cut in December.

From BofA:

The Fed has made it clear that the policy rate will remain unchanged at its June meeting. We expect the FOMC to make some changes to the language around uncertainty in the statement. The May statement said that “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further”. Given the 115pp reduction in bilateral US-China tariffs on May 12, we think a more appropriate characterization could be: “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated”.

Per the usual, markets will be focused on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The March SEP was pre-“Liberation Day”. Therefore, meaningful revisions to the 2025 forecasts are likely. However, we think there is too much uncertainty around policy along multiple dimensions (most notably trade and fiscal) for the Fed to do a wholesale reassessment of its views. So we think the forecasts for 2026 and beyond will remain largely unchanged.
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We are not making any changes to our Fed forecast and continue to expect the first of three normalization cuts in December, followed by two more in 2026 to a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%. An earlier cut is possible if the economy deteriorates more than we expect or if inflation continues to surprise to the downside, but we think that the peak summer tariff effects on the monthly inflation prints will most likely be too fresh for the FOMC to cut before December.

Projections will be released at this meeting. For review, here are the March projections.  

The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate is now at 4.0% at the end of 2025 (3.9%-4.4%) and the long run range is 2.6% to 3.6%.   This is fewer rate cuts than market participants expect.

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been below expectations (but distorted), the unemployment rate was close to expectations, and inflation at expectations.

The BEA's advance estimate for Q1 GDP showed real growth at -0.2% annualized. There is a wide range of estimates for Q2 GDP, but it is forecast to be over 3.0% (as Q1 distortions reverse).  That would put real growth on pace to be in the range of the March FOMC projections for Q4 over Q4.  

However, Q2, Q3 and Q4 all saw solid growth last year - and we haven't seen the impact of policy changes on hard data yet - so there is still significant uncertainty about the economy this year.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	1.5 to 1.9	1.6 to 1.9	1.6 to 2.0
Dec 2024	1.8 to 2.2	1.9 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in May after averaging 4.1% for Q1.  The forecast for the Q4 unemployment rate is likely low.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	4.3 to 4.4	4.2 to 4.5	4.1 to 4.4
Dec 2024	4.2 to 4.5	4.1 to 4.4	4.0 to 4.4

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of April 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.1 percent year-over-year (YoY). There will likely be some increase in PCE inflation from policy, but this appears to in the forecast range.

Without policy changes (tariffs) it appears inflation would be well below the FOMC forecast!

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	2.6 to 2.9	2.1 to 2.3	2.0 to 2.1
Dec 2024	2.3 to 2.6	2.0-2.2	2.0

PCE core inflation increased 2.5 percent YoY in April.  This is in the range of FOMC projections for Q4.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	2.7 to 3.0	2.1 to 2.4	2.0 to 2.1
Dec 2024	2.5 to 2.7	2.0-2.3	2.0

by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

• The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are May Retail Sales and Housing Starts.

For manufacturing, Industrial Production, and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rates are expected to be unchanged.

----- Monday, June 16th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, up from -9.2.

----- Tuesday, June 17th -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). 

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.7%.

10:00 AM: The June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 36, up from 34 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Wednesday, June 18th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 250 thousand, up from 248 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for May.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.370 million SAAR, up from 1.361 million SAAR in April.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Statement. The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at this meeting.

2:00 PM: FOMC Projections This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, June 19th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day

----- Friday, June 20th -----
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, up from -4.0 last month.

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	208✅	255	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2024 (previous pandemic low of 314 deaths), I continued to post since deaths moved above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are below the goal for a couple more weeks.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of June 12th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This is below the lows of May 2024.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Very Low".

by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2025 02:33:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million in May, up 0.75% from April’s preliminary pace and down 0.74%% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat larger YOY % decline, reflecting this May’s lower business day count relative to last May’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by just 1.0% from a year earlier. By region SF median sales prices should be virtually flat from a year ago in the West, down by about 1% in the South, up about 4% in the Midwest, and up about 5% in the Northeast.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release May Existing Home sales on Monday, June 23rd at 10:00 AM. Last year, the NAR reported sales in May 2024 at 4.06 million SAAR.