by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2025 12:18:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts

A brief excerpt:

This morning, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their monthly housing market index: Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012
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There are several negatives for new home builders now. The NAHB lists the following: rising inventory levels (this is true for both new homes and existing homes that compete with new homes), price declines for existing home sales in a “growing number of markets”, buyer hesitancy due to “elevated mortgage rates and tariff and economic uncertainty”.

In addition, margins are being squeezed by rising costs (both material and labor), and price cuts. This will be a difficult period for homebuilders.

The following graph shows the NAHB HMI and single family starts since 1985.

There is much more in the article.