by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2025 03:03:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

A brief excerpt:

Earlier this week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in November and will be about the same YoY - or slightly higher - in the December report (based on other data).
...
Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up about the same - or maybe a little higher - YoY in the December Case-Shiller index as in the November report.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2025 01:01:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

A brief excerpt:

The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.
...
Solid underwriting is a key reason I’ve argued Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, Look instead at the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2025 11:00:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $93 billion (0.5%) in Q4 2024, to $18.04 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining delinquency rates in the auto loan market.

“While mortgage delinquency rates are similar to pre-pandemic levels, auto loan delinquency transition rates remain elevated.” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “High auto loan delinquency rates are broad-based across credit scores and income levels.”

Credit card balances increased by $45 billion from the previous quarter and reached $1.21 trillion at the end of December 2024. Auto loan balances saw a $11 billion increase and stood at $1.66 trillion. Mortgage balances increased by $11 billion and currently stand at $12.61 trillion. HELOC balances rose by $9 billion to $396 billion, representing the eleventh consecutive quarterly increase since Q1 2022. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, grew by $8 billion. Student loan balances grew by $9 billion, and now stand at $1.62 trillion.

The pace of mortgage originations increased slightly from the pace observed in the previous four quarters, with $465 billion of newly originated mortgages in Q4. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased moderately by $98 billion, representing a 1.3% increase from the previous quarter. Limits on HELOC continued to rise and saw an $8 billion increase.

Aggregate delinquency rates increased slightly from the previous quarter, with 3.6% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Delinquency transition rates held steady for nearly all debt types, excluding credit cards which had a small uptick in transitions from current to delinquent. Transition into serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days past due, edged up for auto loans, credit cards, and HELOC balances but remained stable for mortgages.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here are three graphs from the report:

The first graph shows household debt increased in Q4.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic.

From the NY Fed:

Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $93 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 0.5% rise from 2024Q3. Balances now stand at $18.04 trillion and have increased by $3.9 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.

The overall delinquency rate increased in Q4.  From the NY Fed:

Aggregate delinquency rates increased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024. As of December, 3.6 percent of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, up from 3.5 percent in the third quarter. Transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types; the exception was for credit card balances, which saw a small uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent. Transition into serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days past due, edged up for auto loans, credit cards, and HELOC balances but remained stable for mortgages.

The third graph shows Mortgage Originations by Credit Score.

From the NY Fed:

The volume of mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and including both refinance and purchase originations, increased slightly with $465 billion newly originated in 2024Q4. ... Credit quality of newly originated loans was mixed. The credit scores of newly originated auto loans and mortgages were mostly steady, although there was some deterioration in mortgages, as the tenth percentile score of newly originated mortgage loans declined by six points.

There is much more in the report.

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending February 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 216,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 08:15:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: Q4 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 03:18:00 PM

The BLS reported 143 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report.

The BLS reported 573 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for January over the previous 10 years was 304 thousand (median 258 thousand), so more people than normal were impacted by bad weather.

The BLS also reported 1.175 million people that are usually full-time employees were working part time in January due to bad weather.  The average for January over the previous 10 years was 945 thousand (the median was 670 thousand).  This series suggests weather negatively impacted employment more than usual.

The San Francisco Fed estimates Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted). They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment. For January, the San Francisco Fed estimated that weather reduced employment by 85 to 90 thousand jobs.

It appears weather adjusted job gains were around 230 thousand in January (seasonally adjusted)

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 12:34:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

A brief excerpt:

When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about the nominal interest rate. However, the theoretical “neutral” interest rate is a real, or inflation-adjusted interest rate.
...
In sum, (1) the market’s view of the neutral fed funds rate is higher than the majority of FOMC participants; and (2) using implied market expectations the current stance of monetary policy is not meaningfully restrictive.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 11:26:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (down from 3.7% YoY in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.3% (up from 3.2%). 

Core PCE is for December was up 2.8% YoY, mostly unchanged from 2.8% in November.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 08:57:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 3.9% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through December 2024.

Services were up 4.2% YoY as of January 2025, down from 4.4% YoY in December.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.9% YoY in January, down from 4.0% YoY in December

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.2% YoY as of January 2025, up from -1.9% YoY in December.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -0.1% YoY in January, up from -0.7% YoY in December.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through January) and housing from the PCE report (through December)

Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December. Housing (PCE) was up 4.7% YoY in December, down from 4.8% in November.

This is still catching up with private new lease data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.4% YoY in January.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, after rising 0.4 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in January, accounting for nearly 30 percent of the monthly all items increase. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the month, as the gasoline index increased 1.8 percent. The index for food also increased in January, rising 0.4 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.5 percent and the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in January. Indexes that increased over the month include motor vehicle insurance, recreation, used cars and trucks, medical care, communication, and airline fares. The indexes for apparel, personal care, and household furnishings and operations were among the few major indexes that decreased in January.

The all items index rose 3.0 percent for the 12 months ending January, after rising 2.9 percent over the 12 months ending December. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 1.0 percent for the 12 months ending January. The food index increased 2.5 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 7, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week and was 33 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved slightly lower last week, which led to the pace of refinance applications reaching its strongest week since October 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The average loan size for refinance borrowers increased, as these borrowers tend to be more responsive for a given change in rates. Purchase applications were down from the previous week’s level but were slightly ahead of last year’s pace. The average loan size for a purchase application increased to its highest level since March 2022 at $456,100, partially driven by fewer FHA purchase applications but more VA loans compared to the previous week.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.95 percent from 6.97 percent, with points remained unchanged at 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 2% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 22% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 1% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index remains very low.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2025 07:21:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.

• At 10:00 AM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2025 02:13:00 PM

The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We expect a 0.34% increase in January core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.19% (vs. 3.1% consensus). We expect a 0.36% increase in January headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), reflecting 0.4% higher food prices and 0.6% higher energy prices.

From BofA:

We anticipate January headline and core CPI to each increase by 0.3% m/m. The y/y rates should decline a tenth to 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. Residual seasonality and base effects are likely to have played a role, adding noise to the report. Additionally, CPI seasonal factors will be revised with the January release.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2025 11:07:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in January. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in January were mostly for contracts signed in November and December when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.81% and 6.72%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in November, but down from the average rate of 7.1% in November and December 2023.
...
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely this will be near the seasonal low for months-of-supply.

Months in red are areas that will likely see over 6 months of supply later this year.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2025 09:32:00 AM

This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET and also on C-SPAN 3.

Report here.

An excerpt:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decisionmaking by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society.

Employment, inflation, and long-term interest rates fluctuate over time in response to economic and financial disturbances. Monetary policy plays an important role in stabilizing the economy in response to these disturbances. The Committee's primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy is through changes in the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee judges that the level of the federal funds rate consistent with maximum employment and price stability over the longer run has declined relative to its historical average. Therefore, the federal funds rate is likely to be constrained by its effective lower bound more frequently than in the past. Owing in part to the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound, the Committee judges that downward risks to employment and inflation have increased. The Committee is prepared to use its full range of tools to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The maximum level of employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal that is not directly measurable and changes over time owing largely to nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market. Consequently, it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee's policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, recognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision. The Committee considers a wide range of indicators in making these assessments.

The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.

Monetary policy actions tend to influence economic activity, employment, and prices with a lag. In setting monetary policy, the Committee seeks over time to mitigate shortfalls of employment from the Committee's assessment of its maximum level and deviations of inflation from its longer-run goal. Moreover, sustainably achieving maximum employment and price stability depends on a stable financial system. Therefore, the Committee's policy decisions reflect its longer-run goals, its medium-term outlook, and its assessments of the balance of risks, including risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.

The Committee's employment and inflation objectives are generally complementary. However, under circumstances in which the Committee judges that the objectives are not complementary, it takes into account the employment shortfalls and inflation deviations and the potentially different time horizons over which employment and inflation are projected to return to levels judged consistent with its mandate.

The Committee intends to review these principles and to make adjustments as appropriate at its annual organizational meeting each January, and to undertake roughly every 5 years a thorough public review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 07:17:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New Week

Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 2024. Top tier 30yr fixed rates have operated inside a 0.13% range since then and a narrower 0.08% range for the past 2 weeks. ... on Wednesday, volatility potential increases significantly with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the first of the two big inflation readings for any given month. Inflation is always a consideration for interest rates, but it's particularly important at the moment as investors wait for evidence that progress toward the 2% has resumed after potentially stalling at just over 3% last summer. [30 year fixed 7.01%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.

• At 10:00 AM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 03:01:00 PM

Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.

Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, however the participation rate was increasing in the '80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is generally declining now.  But these graphs give an overview of employment changes.

The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Trump only served one term.

Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (dark red) took office.

There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (light purple) term, and Mr. Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession.   There was a pandemic related recession in 2020.

First, here is a table for private sector jobs. The previous top two private sector terms were both under President Clinton.  

Term	Private Sector Jobs Added (000s)
Biden	14,3451
Clinton 1	10,875
Clinton 2	10,104
Obama 2	9,924
Reagan 2	9,351
Carter	9,039
Reagan 1	5,363
Obama 1	1,889
GHW Bush	1,507
GW Bush 2	453
GW Bush 1	-822
Trump	-2,178
1End of Term

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph is for private employment only.

Private sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), by 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President G.H.W. Bush (light purple), 20,979,000 under President Clinton (light blue), lost 369,000 under President G.W. Bush, and gained 11,813,000 under President Obama (dark dashed blue).  During Trump's first term (Orange), the economy lost 2,178,000 private sector jobs.

 A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment.  Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. 

The public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).  However, the public sector declined significantly while Mr. Obama was in office (down 263,000 jobs).  During Trump's term, the economy lost 537,000 public sector jobs (mostly teachers during the pandemic).

And a table for public sector jobs. Public sector jobs increased have increased the most during Biden's term (mostly state and local employment), ahead of the number during Reagan's 2nd term.  Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama's first term.

Term	Public Sector Jobs Added (000s)
Biden	1,8111
Reagan 2	1,438
Carter	1,304
Clinton 2	1,242
GHW Bush	1,127
GW Bush 1	900
GW Bush 2	844
Clinton 1	692
Obama 2	447
Reagan 1	-24
Trump	-537
Obama 1	-710
1End of Term

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 12:19:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always focus first on inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale! I’m watching months-of-supply closely.
...
New home inventory, as a percentage of total inventory, is still very high. The following graph uses Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) existing home inventory from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) and new home inventory from the Census Bureau (only completed and under construction inventory).

It took a number of years following the housing bust for new home inventory to return to the pre-bubble percent of total inventory. Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 25.1% of the total for sale inventory, down from a peak of 27.2% in December 2022.

The percent of new homes of total inventory should continue to decline as existing home inventory increases. However, the percent of new home inventory has increased seasonally over the Winter as existing homes are withdrawn from the market.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week.

Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. Inventory is now up 1.3% from the bottom four weeks ago. Inventory has been little changed over the last 4 weeks.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 27.8% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 277%), and down 22.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.2%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Feb 7th, inventory was at 632 thousand (7-day average), compared to 635 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 12:01:00 AM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $71.00 per barrel and Brent at $74.66 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices are down about 8% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.13 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.18 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.05 year-over-year.