by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2024 12:58:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2025?

A brief excerpt:

With house prices up mid-single digits over the last year, an interesting question is: How much will the Fannie & Freddie conforming loan limits (CLL) change for 2025? And how much will the FHA insured loan limits change?

First, there are different loan limits for various geographical areas. There are also different loan limits depending on the number of units (from 1 to 4 units). For example, currently the CLL is $766,550 for one-unit properties in low-cost areas. For high-cost areas like Los Angeles County, the CLL is $1,149,825 for one-unit properties (50% higher than the baseline CLL).
...
This graph shows the CLL since 1979. The CLL was unchanged from 2006 though 2016.

We need the house price data through September 2024 to calculate the conforming loan limit for 2025. This quarterly data will be released in late November.​
...
Based on the current year-over-year house price change (through May), the CLL would be close to $810,000 in 2025. For high-cost areas like Los Angeles, the limit could increase to over $1.2 million. However, the year-over-year (YoY) increase in house prices has been slowing, and it is likely the increase will be less than 5.7%.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2024 11:00:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Increased Moderately in Q2 2024; Auto and Credit Card Delinquency Rates Remain Elevated

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $109 billion (0.6%) in Q2 2024, to $17.80 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining growing balances of home equity lines of credit (HELOC).

“The volume of mortgage originations remained low, primarily due to subdued refinancing activity.” said Andrew Haughwout, Director of Household and Public Policy Research at the New York Fed. “Homeowners continued to increase HELOC balances as an alternative way to extract home equity.”

Mortgage balances rose by $77 billion from the previous quarter and reached $12.52 trillion at the end of June. HELOC balances increased by $4 billion, representing the ninth consecutive quarterly increase since Q1 2022, and stood at $380 billion. This is a $63 billion increase from the series low reached in Q3 2021. Credit card balances increased by $27 billion to $1.14 trillion. Auto loan balances saw a $10 billion increase and stood at $1.63 trillion. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, were effectively flat, with a $1 billion increase.

Mortgage originations continued increasing at about the same pace seen in the previous four quarters and stood at $374 billion. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $69 billion, representing a 1.4% increase from the previous quarter. Limits on HELOC increased by $3 billion, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase.

Aggregate delinquency rates were unchanged from the previous quarter, with 3.2% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Delinquency transition rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages increased slightly.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here are three graphs from the report:

The first graph shows household debt increased in Q2.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic.

From the NY Fed:

Aggregate household debt balances increased by $109 billion in the second quarter of 2024, a 0.6% rise from 2024Q1. Balances now stand at $17.80 trillion and have increased by $3.7 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.

The overall delinquency rate was mostly unchanged in Q2.  From the NY Fed:

Aggregate delinquency rates were unchanged from the first quarter of 2024. As of June, 3.2% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency. ... Delinquency transition rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages increased slightly. Over the last year, approximately 9.1% of credit card balances and 8.0% of auto loan balances transitioned into delinquency. Early delinquency transition rates for mortgages increased by 0.1 percentage point yet remain low by historic standards.

The third graph shows Mortgage Originations by Credit Score.

From the NY Fed:

Credit quality of newly originated loans was steady, with 3.9% of mortgages and 16.7% of auto loans originated to borrowers with credit scores under 620, a slight increase from the first quarter. The median credit score for newly originated mortgages rose slightly to 772, while the median credit score of newly originated auto loans was 719, five points lower than the historic high reached in 2024Q1.

There is much more in the report.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2024 08:30:00 AM

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.1 billion in June, down $1.9 billion from $75.0 billion in May, revised.

June exports were $265.9 billion, $3.9 billion more than May exports. June imports were $339.0 billion, $2.0 billion more than May imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Both exports and imports increased in June.

Exports are up 5.9% year-over-year; imports are up 7.3% year-over-year.

Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - imports and exports have generally increased recently.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $22.8 billion from $24.1 billion a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2024 08:00:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for May. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual US Home Price Growth Below 5% for Second Consecutive Month as June Home Prices Cool

• U.S. home prices posted a 4.7% year-over-year gain in June, with only one state posting double-digit gains.

• By summer 2025, prices are predicted to slow to 2.3% as home price growth continues to slow

• In June, home prices were up only 0.3% from the month before, half the rate of seasonal increase seen in June in the years prior to the pandemic
...
U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down, reaching 4.7% in June, falling further from the previous month’s 4.9% in what will likely be a continual slide throughout the next year. Although June marked the 150th consecutive month of annual growth, the rate of growth is expected to decrease by more than half of its current rate, with prices expected to grow by only 2.3% on a year-over-year basis next summer.

Month over month, home prices rose just 0.3% from May to June. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that prices will repeat that pattern, rising by 0.3% again from June 2024 to July 2024. In the years prior to pandemic, monthly gains from May to July generally saw stronger increases. The cooling of monthly gains during the spring home-buying season reflects the impact of high mortgage rates on home buyers’ budgets and constraint on affordability.
...
“Housing market activity essentially froze at the end of the spring home-buying season as high mortgage rates continued to compress affordability and dissuade potential homebuyers,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “The 0.3% gain in prices from the month before was less than half the increase seen between May and June prior to the pandemic, when the gains averaged 0.8%. In addition, cooling home prices continued to spread across more markets, and nine states reported a monthly decline, up from three states last month. The April surge in mortgage rates notably weighed on consumer sentiment, and consumers increasingly chose to respond to the anticipation of a lower mortgage rate environment later this year.”
emphasis added

This was a smaller YoY increase than reported for May, and down from the 5.8% YoY increase reported at the beginning of 2024.

by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2024 07:00:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Year

As of Friday, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was merely at the lowest levels of 2024. A modest additional drop this morning brought that number to the lowest level since April 2023.
...
In the big picture, rates have been moving consistently lower due to an ongoing bond market rally that began in May. That rally is driven by softer inflation/economic data and an increased willingness on the part of the Fed to consider rate cuts. [30 year fixed 6.81%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $72.6 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $75.1 Billion the previous month.

• At 11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2024 02:00:00 PM

From the Federal Reserve: The July 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

The July 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the second quarter of 2024.

Regarding loans to businesses, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter standards and basically unchanged demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the second quarter. Meanwhile, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories.

For loans to households, banks reported, on balance, basically unchanged lending standards and weaker demand across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans. In addition, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and unchanged demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Moreover, standards reportedly tightened for credit card and other consumer loans but remained basically unchanged for auto loans, while demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans but remained basically unchanged for credit card loans.

While banks, on balance, reported having tightened lending standards further for most loan categories in the second quarter, the net shares of banks that reported having tightened lending standards are lower than in the first quarter across almost all loan categories.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts.

This graph is for demand and shows that demand has declined.

The left graphs are from 1990 to 2014.  The right graphs are from 2015 to Q2 2024.

by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2024 11:02:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Existing Home Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas

Brief excerpt:

The local data I track is indicating that Florida and Texas inventory is above normal, whereas inventory is still low in most of the country.

• Nearly every major market (98%) is seeing more for-sale inventory than at this time last year, with the largest rises in Tampa (+98%), Orlando (+82%), North Port (+80%) and Palm Bay, Fla. (+79%) and Denver (+78%)

• One in four major markets has at least 50% more inventory than last year, with one in five now at (or above) pre-pandemic inventory levels

• Lakeland, Fla., for example, had 58% more homes for sale in June than it did, on average, during the same month from 2017 to 2019, with Austin and San Antonio running second and third at 38% and 35% above pre-pandemic levels

by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2024 10:09:00 AM

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the July 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 485 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 485 thousand SAAR in July, up from 452 thousand in June, and down 3.8% from 504 thousand SAAR in July 2023.  

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.   Heavy truck sales are solid. 

by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2024 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 38.4% from the February seasonal bottom.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of August 2nd, inventory was at 684 thousand (7-day average), compared to 677 thousand the prior week.   

This is the highest level of inventory since June 2020; however, inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. 

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 39.9% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 39.4%), and down 28.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 29.4%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2024 09:41:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of August 4, 2024

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM Services Index for July.   The consensus is for a reading of 51.3, up from 48.8.

• At 2:00 PM, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for July.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 80 and DOW futures are down 356 (fair value).

Oil prices were lower over the last week with WTI futures at $73.53 per barrel and Brent at $76.92 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $83, and Brent was at $87 - so WTI oil prices are down about 11% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.44 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.80 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.36 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/04/2024 08:11:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 27 July

The U.S. hotel industry reported lower performance results than the previous week and mixed comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 27 July. ...

21-27 July 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 72.0% (-0.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.45 (+1.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$118.37 (+0.9%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking just behind last year and is below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally for another week or two due to summer recreational travel.  

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.9% year-over-year in May

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% Below 2022 Peak

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in June; Up 5.1% Year-over-year

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in June, Multi-family Increased

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2024 08:11:00 AM

This will be a light week for economic data.

The key report this week is the June Trade Deficit.

----- Monday, August 5th -----
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for July.   The consensus is for a reading of 51.3, up from 48.8.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for July.

----- Tuesday, August 6th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $72.6 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $75.1 Billion the previous month.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Wednesday, August 7th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, August 8th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, down from 249 thousand last week.

----- Friday, August 9th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2024 07:05:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week🚩	421	383	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm going to continue to post now that deaths are above the goal again.  

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of August 1st:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is increasing - especially in the West and South. 

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2024 02:33:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 36.6% YoY, but still down 30.6% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 37.1% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending July 27, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 37.1% above year-ago levels.

For the 38th week in a row, the number of for-sale homes grew compared with one year ago. This past week, the inventory of homes for sale grew by 37.1% compared with last year, slightly higher than the rate observed in the previous week.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week by 6.4% from one year ago.

This week’s decrease in new listings bucked the recent trend of new listing growth, which had posted a positive year-over-year figure in 15 of the last 17 weeks. On a monthly basis, June saw new listings grow at a 6.3% annual rate, so this week’s data appears to signal a slowdown in housing inventory being added to the market.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 38th consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2024 12:03:00 PM

The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for July this morning.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for July (red).

Sales in July (15.82 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from June, and down 0.8% from July 2023.

Sales in July were below the consensus forecast of 16.2 million.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2024 11:05:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand). Now that household formation has slowed, and multi-family completions have increased, rents are under pressure.

Welcome to the August 2024 Apartment List National Rent Report. Rent prices ticked up for the sixth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. And while month-over-month rent growth remains positive, it is decelerating. Prices increased just 0.2% in July and today the nationwide median rent stands at $1,414. It is very possible that rent growth will turn flat or negative in August, and stay there for the remainder of the year.

...
Realtor.com: Eleventh Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

In June 2024, the U.S. median rent continued to decline year over year for the 11th month in a row, down $7 (-0.4%) for 0-2 bedroom properties across the top 50 metros, slower than the rate seen in May 2024. The median asking rent was $1,743, up by $13 from last month following a typical seasonal trend.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2024 09:08:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined.   The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%.

Construction employment increased 25 thousand and is now 645 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. 

Manufacturing employment increased 1 thousand and is now 173 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.

Earlier: July Employment Report: 114 thousand Jobs, 4.3% Unemployment Rate

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in July to 84.0% from 83.7% in June to the highest level since 2001.

The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.9% from 80.8% the previous month.

Both are above pre-pandemic levels and near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.6% YoY in July.   

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 million from 4.22 million in June.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.8 from 7.4% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.535 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.516 million the previous month.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through July 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 43 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
	Year Ended	Streak, Months
1	2019	100
2	1990	48
3	2007	46
4	1979	45
5	20241	43
6 tie	1943	33
6 tie	1986	33
6 tie	2000	33
9	1967	29
10	1995	25
1Currrent Streak

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%.

A weaker than expected report, and the three-month average employment growth has slowed to 170 per month.  The unemployment rate has increased from a low of 3.4% in early 2023 to 4.3% in July.

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2024 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS: Employment Situation

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 2,000, from +218,000 to +216,000, and the change for June was revised down by 27,000, from +206,000 to +179,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 29,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 114 thousand in July.  Private payrolls increased by 97 thousand, and public payrolls increased 17 thousand.

Payrolls for May and June were revised down 29 thousand, combined.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In July, the year-over-year change was 2.51 million jobs.  Employment was up solidly year-over-year.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.7% in July, from 62.6% in June. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.0% from 60.1% in June (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June.

This was well below consensus expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2024 07:40:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for July.   The consensus is for 175,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%