by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2021 06:19:00 PM

Experts currently think we need somewhere between 70% and 85% of the total population fully vaccinated to achieve "herd immunity". Vermont has the highest percentage of fully vaccinated at 67.0% - so there is a long way to go.

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 5th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 14th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 14th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 355,768,825, as of a week ago 350,627,188. Average doses last week: 0.73 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	50.6%	50.5%	50.2%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	168.1	167.7	166.8	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	119,523	117,301	103,422	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	66,063	64,381	50,101	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	544	511	449	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

KUDOS to the residents of the 5 states that have achieved 60% of population fully vaccinated: Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.

The following states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Maryland, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Washington, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska and Florida at 50.2%.

Next up are Illinois at 49.6%, Michigan at 49.5%, South Dakota at 47.8, Ohio at 47.2%, Kentucky at 46.7%, Arizona at 46.3%, Kansas at 46.3%, Alaska at 46.2%, Utah at 45.8%, and Nevada at 45.7%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The current wave is already the second worst for cases although there was limited testing during the first wave.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2021 09:52:00 AM

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®:

Closed sales (attached and detached) in July 2021 were 3,149, down 16.2% from 3,759 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 4,668, down 40.6% from 7,852 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.4 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.8 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 1.8% from the previous month, and up 7.1% from the record low in May 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Retail sales.

For manufacturing, the Industrial Production report will be released.

The BLS will release the preliminary employment benchmark revision.

----- Monday, August 16th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 29.0, down from 43.0.

----- Tuesday, August 17th -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.2% decrease in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline)

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 75.7%.

10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 80, unchanged from 80. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

12:00 PM: MBA Q2 National Delinquency Survey (expected)

1:30 PM: Fed Chair Powell speaks: Conversation with the Chair: A Virtual Teacher Town Hall Meeting

----- Wednesday, August 18th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for July.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.602 million SAAR, down from 1.643 million SAAR in June.

10:00 AM: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, July 27-28, 2021

----- Thursday, August 19th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 360 thousand from 375 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 25.0, up from 21.9.

----- Friday, August 20th -----
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2021

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 05:30:00 PM

Congratulations to the residents of California and Pennsylvania on joining the 80% club! Go for 90%!!! (80% of adults have had at least one shot).

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 6th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 15th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 19th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 354,777,950, as of a week ago 349,787,479. Average doses last week: 0.71 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose✅	71.6%	71.5%	70.6%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	167.7	167.4	165.9	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	116,508	114,208	100,981	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	64,231	62,117	47,709	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	514	491	424	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Short term goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 21 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California are at 80%+, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 69.7%, Nebraska at 68.9%, Wisconsin at 68.6%, Kansas at 68.1%, South Dakota at 67.8%, Nevada at 67.6%, Texas at 67.5%, and Iowa at 67.1%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The current wave is already the second worst for cases although there was limited testing during the first wave.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 01:04:00 PM

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Santa Clara Realtors (includes San Jose):

Closed sales (single family and condos) in July 2021 were 1,783, up 29.4% from 1,378. in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 1,820, down 6.7% from 1,950¹ in July 2020. (¹estimate)

Inventory in July was up 3.0% from the previous month, and up 58.4% from the record low in December 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 11:16:00 AM

From BofA:

We look for growth of 7.0% qoq SAAR in 3Q ... We forecast retail sales fell by 2.3% mom in July, reflecting cooling service demand on Delta concerns and weaker online spend from the pull forward in the timing of Prime day. This poses significant downside risk to our 3Q GDP forecast; if we are correct, 3Q GDP tracking could fall to 3%. [August 13 estimate]
emphasis added

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.8% for 2021:Q3. [August 13 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on August 6, down from 6.1 percent on August 5. [August 6 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 09:23:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of August 10th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Another Week of Significant Forbearance Declines

In the wake of last week’s 71,000 drop over the first days of August, our McDash Flash daily mortgage performance dataset showed another significant decline in the number of active forbearance plans in the days since. The total number of active plans declined by 83,000 since last Tuesday, pushing the total number of homeowners in forbearance below 1.8 million for the first time since early in the pandemic.

As we’ve mentioned in the past, the largest movement in the number of forbearances tends to be seen early on in each month, as plans scheduled for three-month reviews in the month prior are reviewed for extension or removal.

As of August 10, 1.74 million homeowners remain in COVID-19-related forbearance plans, representing 3.3% of all active mortgages, including 1.9% of GSE, 5.8% of FHA/VA and 3.9% of loans held in bank portfolio and private securitizations.

Improvement was seen across the board. Portfolio and PLS loans saw the strongest reduction, with a 43,000 (-7.8%) decline in active plans. The number of FHA loans in forbearance fell by 25,000 (-3.5%) from the week prior, while GSE loans saw a 15,000 (-2.7%) decline. That puts the number of active plans down 125,000 (-6.7%) from the same time last month.

Click on graph for larger image.

Plan starts, including both new plans and restarts, pulled back again this week, hitting their lowest weekly mark since early July (again). Of the 185,000 plans reviewed over the past week, 62% were exits.

More than 250,000 plans are currently slated for review for extension/removal throughout August. An estimated one-third of those are set to reach their final expiration based on current allowable forbearance term lengths. Volumes of final expirations will increase significantly in September and October.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 08:22:00 AM

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the San Diego Realtors:

Closed sales (attached and detached) in July 2021 were 3,600, down 4.5% from 3,769 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 3349, down 41.9% from 5,763 in July 2020.

Months of Supply for attached was 1.0 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.9 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was down slightly from the previous month, and up 13.0% from the record low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 07:37:00 PM

First, on the economic impact of the delta variant from BofA today:

'Our big data business cycle indicator is at risk of a regime shift from "boom" to "soft patch" because of the Delta wave.'

Florida and Texas are in a serious crisis (see graphs and comments at bottom).

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 6th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 16th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 22nd.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 353,859,894, as of a week ago 348,966,419. Average doses last week: 0.70 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose✅	71.5%	71.3%	70.4%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	167.4	167.1	165.6	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	114,190	112,751	96,453	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	62,041	59,755	45,456	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	492	479	406	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Short term goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 21 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico and Rhode Island are at 80%+, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 69.7%, Nebraska at 68.8%, Wisconsin at 68.5%, Kansas at 68.0%, South Dakota at 67.6%, Nevada at 67.4%, Texas at 67.1%, and Iowa at 66.8%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The current wave is already the second worst for cases although there was limited testing during the first wave.

The second graphs shows hospitalizations in Florida.

Hospitalizations in Florida are already at a record level, and Florida is running out of ICU beds.

According to data from the HHS on hospital utilizations, over 90% of ICU beds in Florida are occupied, and more than half of those are COVID patients.  Grim

And on Texas, from the Texas Tribune: “I am frightened by what is coming”: Texas hospitals could soon be overwhelmed by COVID-19 caseload, officials say

Texas hospitals are on the brink of catastrophe, close to being completely overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, leaders of some of the state’s largest hospitals told state lawmakers Tuesday.

Official after official used their strongest descriptions to get the point across to legislators: Hospitalizations are rising too fast for them to keep up with, and it may be too late to do anything about it.

“While more vaccination is the only thing that can ultimately bring this pandemic to an end, we need more decisive actions now to prevent a catastrophe the likes of which we only imagined last year,” Dr. Esmaeil Porsa, CEO of Harris Health System in Houston, told the Texas Senate Health and Human Services Committee on Tuesday.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 02:14:00 PM

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the South Carolina Realtors for the entire state:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 9,658, down 9.5% from 10,675 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 12,869,, down 40.4% from 21,592 in July 2020.

Months of Supply for attached was 1.4 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.6 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 15.3% from the previous month, and up 23.1% from the record low in May 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 12:06:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Maryland Realtors for the entire state:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 9,685, down 3.2% from 10,001 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 10,164, down 30.8% from 14,685 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.1 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.0 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 18.9% from last month, and up 64% from the all time low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 10:10:00 AM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.

The occupancy rate is down 8.3% compared to the same week in 2019.

From CoStar: STR: Seasonality, Delta Variant Worries Lead to Lower US Hotel Occupancy, Rates

Reflecting seasonality and greater concern around the Delta variant, U.S. hotel occupancy and average daily rate (ADR) dipped from the previous weeks, according to STR‘s latest data through August 7.

August 1-7, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 68.0% (-8.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $140.97 (+5.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $95.89 (-3.6%)
...
*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

With solid leisure travel, the Summer months have had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - especially with the sharp increase in COVID pandemic cases and hospitalizations.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 09:13:00 AM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Minnesota Realtors®:

Total Residential Units Sold in July 2021 were 9,615, down 8.7% from 10,530 in July 2020.

Active Residential Listings in July 2021 were 11,854, down 29.7% from 16,861 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.5 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.3 Months in July 2020.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Minnesota Realtors® shows inventory in Minnesota since 2012. Inventory had been trending down, and then was somewhat flat for a few years, and then declined significantly during the pandemic.

Active inventory was up 8.6% from the previous month, and up 43.3% seasonally from the all time low in February 2021.   Usually, at this time of the year, we'd expect active inventory of around 23,000 in Minnesota, so current inventory is still extremely low.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 375,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 385,000 to 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,250, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 394,000 to 394,500.
emphasis added

This does not include the 104,572 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 94,427 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 394,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,866,000 (SA) from 2,980,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 4,820,787 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,156,982 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 3,852,569 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 4,246,207.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 09:00:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 370 thousand from 385 thousand last week.

• At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in PPI, and a 0.5% increase in core PPI.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 06:54:00 PM

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 6th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 18th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 25th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 353,205,544, as of a week ago 348,102,478. Average doses last week: 0.73 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose✅	71.3%	71.2%	70.1%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	167.1	166.9	165.3	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	113,357	109,539	91,192	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	59,172	56,877	43,244	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	452	433	369	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Short term goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 21 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico and Rhode Island are at 80%+, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 69.7%, Nebraska at 68.7%, Wisconsin at 68.4%, Kansas at 67.8%, South Dakota at 67.5%, Nevada at 67.3%, and Iowa at 66.8%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 05:30:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Des Moines Area Association of REALTORS®:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 1,703, down 8.7% from 1,866 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 2,086, down 25.1% from 2,785 in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 13.5% from last month, and up 20% from the all time low in April 2021. Usually inventory peaks in the summer at between 3,500 and 4,100 in Des Moines, so this is still very low.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 03:48:00 PM

The BLS reported this morning:

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 6.0 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 267.789 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

• In 2020, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 253.412.

The 2020 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.

Note: The year labeled for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year).

CPI-W was up 6.0% year-over-year in July, and although this is very early - we need the data for August and September - my current guess is COLA will probably be around 5.5% this year, the largest increase since 5.8% in 2008 - and it is possible this will be the largest increase since 1982 (7.4%).

Contribution and Benefit Base

The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2020 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2020. If wages increased the same as in 2019, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $148,200 in 2022, from the current $142,800.

Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 12:44:00 PM

I'm tracking sales and inventory for many local markets.

From the HAR: Houston Home Sales Show No Let-Up in July, Despite What The Numbers Say

By the numbers, Houston-area home sales were down this July compared to last. However, that is because COVID-related home closing delays during Q2 2020 finally pushed through that July as most of the pandemic lockdowns were lifted. The resulting surge of pent-up sales cemented July 2020 in the real estate history books as a record-setting month that could not be rivaled by the rapid-fire pace of the current market.

According to the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR) July 2021 Market Update, single-family homes sales were down 6.1 percent compared to last July, with 10,159 units sold versus the historic 10,822 that sold a year earlier. However, when compared to July 2019 — an average month of home sales with volume totaling 8,921 — the Houston housing market was up 13.9 percent. On a year-to-date basis, local home sales currently exceed 2020’s record pace by 19.1 percent.
...
Sales of all property types fell 3.7 percent year-over-year, totaling 12,383. That is the third greatest volume of all time behind June 2021 (13,115) and July 2020 (12,865). Total dollar volume for the month rose 11.4 percent to $4.5 billion.

“We know anecdotally that the Houston real estate market is still red-hot, but the statistics make it appear to be slower than a year ago because of the surge in home closings that took place last July when the market began to normalize with the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions,” said HAR Chairman Richard Miranda with Keller Williams Platinum. “Assertive investors and cash buyers are still controlling the tides of this seller’s market, but hopefully that will moderate with a continued influx of new listings.”
emphasis added

Single family inventory declined 20.6% year-over-year from 34,364 in July 2020 to 27,268 in July 2021.   This is just 1.8 months of supply compared to 2.9 months in July 2020.

Note that inventory was up 12.6% compared to the previous month, and up 20.6% compared to the record low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2021 12:26:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For the Charlotte Region:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 5,189, down 10.5% from 5,796 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 4,073, down 42.2% from 7,045 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 0.8 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.6 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 17.6% from last month, and up 49.0% from the record low in March 2021.